Earlier this season, I introduced a new pitcher metric – Weighted Plate Discipline Index (wPDI). It is a way to aggregate the six possible plate discipline outcomes into one simple quantity. By using plate discipline data alone, wPDI highlights the percentage of deceptive/effective pitches thrown.

Some lesser known undervalued pitchers who were revealed by wPDI in 2018 included Domingo German, Marco Gonzales, Will Smith and Ryan Pressly. Of course, wPDI also confirmed stars such as Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Aroldis Chapman.

You can find the definitions and indexes of wPDI in its introductory article, found here.

Here is a quick reminder on what the six possible plate discipline outcomes look like:

Read the rest of this entry »

As we often say, pitchers seemingly change much more quickly than hitters, so you need to be paying attention to any trends in velocity, pitch mix, spin rate, movement, etc. It’s therefore always a good idea to take a look at changes in the last month versus the rest of the season to potentially spot pitchers rising (or falling) to new levels of performance. With that in mind, let’s identify and discuss the starting pitchers whose four-seam fastball velocity has increased most over the last 31 days versus the rest of the season prior.

Read the rest of this entry »

Taking a closer look at what drove the biggest risers in my latest SP rankings.

Jeff Samardzija, SF | +65 to 52nd

For those of you who don’t have Shark on a team or aren’t familiar with his numbers this year, take a quick guess at his ERA and WHIP on the season. You may be surprised to learn that he’s at 3.70 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in his 126.3 innings of work. He isn’t just leveraging Oracle Park, either. His home/road splits are very close as his ERA is just 0.25 points higher on the road while his WHIP is actually 0.05 points lower. He is carrying a heavy platoon split (LHB are +186 in OPS at .803) so you might be careful with him in switch/lefty-heavy matchups like Arizona (potentially 6 switch/lefty batters on any given day).

Read the rest of this entry »

July was a nightmare. August looks better. Slogging through the July rankings was remarkably difficult because it seemed that everyone after about #40 or so was the same and they were somehow all awful. The middle of the pool has crystallized a bit and hopefully the deadline leaves things settled for a bit, too, outside of the unpredictable injuries. Speaking of injuries, I don’t include guys who are out for a long time, but I did start to put some guys back in who are due back within the week or so (the longest might be P.Lopez, who is tracking around mid-August).

Please leave your questions and comments below!

• March Rankings
• April Rankings
• May Rankings
• June Rankings
• July Rankings

The tiers are as follows:

#1s (10 SPs) – The true aces of fantasy baseball.

Must Start (20 SPs) – Should be pretty obvious, but these are the guys who always start. Again, it isn’t just the very best guys. There are second and third tier arms in terms of market value that I’d start every time out. They don’t have an obvious split or weakness that would give you a better chance at picking off their poor starts. Some of them are “No Coors Field”-types, but it’s predominantly set it and forget it for the foreseeable future.

Usually Start (20 SPs) – If “No Coors Field” is 20-25% with the MS group, it’s more like 60-70% with this group. You need to find a reason to sit them right now in most formats. You might feel like you can spot them properly, but we’re just not that precise in identifying when a solid arm will falter. These guys are good enough to thwart any opponent even on something less than their best day or they could get smacked by a weaker opponent. If you’re rostering them, you should probably be starting them.

Shallow Spot Start (30 SPs) – Flawed talents. A lot of these guys are on the cusp of or have been in the Usually Start tier, but currently you’re looking to curate their starts a bit where you can. These guys might also be US tier arms here temporarily while they get on track. Pay very close attention to gamelogs of pitchers, get a feel for how they arrived at their bottom line numbers. Not all ERAs are created equally and that’s why it’s not a gauge for future production, especially in small samples. I decided to split the group a bit as sort of a way to identify upward or downward mobility for these guys. The shallow ones are a bit more talented and/or running hot so we’re maybe keeping a closer eye on them.

Deep League Spot Start (40 SPs) – I know many of you are dealing with some brutal pitching staff conditions right now after drafting a rotation you thought would be a strength, so you might find yourself in this tier a little more than you’d like. There is some talent to be plucked and the right two-start week could really set you up. This is essentially the Spot Star tier for single leagues or super-deep mixers (16+ teams).

—

Read the rest of this entry »

Looks like we’ll have to wait a little while longer until the real exciting blockbuster trades are made. In the meantime, a pair of lower impact moves were completed involving starting pitchers Jordan Lyles and Jason Vargas. Unfortunately, the park factors suggest both are going to be hurt by their new home digs. Let’s get to the comparisons.

Read the rest of this entry »

After the Andrew Cashner and Homer Bailey moves, I thought the floodgates would open for deals and prepared to write several trade write-ups. Things are starting to heat up with a big move on Sunday and already a pair of starters getting moved by Monday afternoon.

Marcus Stroman to the Mets

This was a shocker! Not that Stroman was traded, but rather where he was traded. The Mets weren’t expected to be buying anyone, but I guess they felt that Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson was too good of a price to pass up. Stroman does get out of the AL East, but the Mets aren’t exactly the defense that can maximize Stroman’s major groundball lean. There’s still a benefit of switching from the AL-to-NL, but overall this feels like a neutral move.

Read the rest of this entry »

In our first big trade of the non-waiver trade deadline season, Marcus Stroman joins the New York Mets, at which point Mets fans know all too well that he’ll turn into a pumpkin and never be effective again until he’s traded away. In all seriousness the knee-jerk reaction is that this move is fantastic for his fantasy value, given a more pitcher friendly venue and a switch to the National League. Let’s dive into the park factors to get more clarity on the change in home parks.

Read the rest of this entry »

When we size up our weekly or daily pitching matchups, most of us probably get a nervous feeling when thinking about starting our hurlers against the Yankees, Red Sox, Twins or Dodgers. Lately, the Indians have become one of those feared teams, too. But it’s been occurring to me that it’s not much fun owning pitchers who ply their craft in the American League West.

Of course, there are the always-tough Astros, but they are not alone as difficult matchups. Going back to June 1, the Angels and Mariners have the two lowest O-Swing rates in the majors, and the Athletics and Astros rank sixth and seventh. The Astros and Angels have the lowest SwStr%, and the Mariners have the 10th-lowest. The A’s, Angels and Astros are in the top 10 for ISO. While the Rangers lag behind their division-mates in these categories, they — along with the A’s and Astros — rank among the eight teams with the highest hard contact rates.
Read the rest of this entry »

We think we know that pitcher skills change more frequently than hitter skills do, so it pays to monitor pitchers whose skills have spiked over a relatively small sample, like the past 30 days. That’s typically around five starts and a significant change in skills could signal a new talent level. Since the pitcher’s overall season line still includes a lot of the previous skills baked in, fantasy owners might not realize the transformation that has been occurring. So let’s take a look at some of the surprise names that appear near the top of the leaderboard.

Read the rest of this entry »

Houston and Los Angeles.

Thanks for reading!!

Read the rest of this entry »