July Starting Pitcher Rankings

by Paul Sporer

July 2, 2019

I hate pitching.

OK, that’s not true, but it gets so thin so fast. I have Kyle Gibson in the top 50 for cryin’ out loud. I’m sure we’ve got a lot to talk about given that it opens up entirely after like, pitcher 25, so hit me up in the comments!

(Now with more Clev Dog!)

The tiers are as follows:

#1s (8 SPs) – The true aces of fantasy baseball.

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Must Start (30 SPs) – Should be pretty obvious, but these are the guys who always start. Again, it isn’t just the very best guys. There are second and third tier arms in terms of market value that I’d start every time out. They don’t have an obvious split or weakness that would give you a better chance at picking off their poor starts. Some of them are “No Coors Field”-types, but it’s predominantly set it and forget it for the foreseeable future.

Usually Start (22 SPs) – If “No Coors Field” is 20-25% with the MS group, it’s more like 60-70% with this group. You need to find a reason to sit them right now in most formats. You might feel like you can spot them properly, but we’re just not that precise in identifying when a solid arm will falter. These guys are good enough to thwart any opponent even on something less than their best day or they could get smacked by a weaker opponent. If you’re rostering them, you should probably be starting them.

Shallow Spot Start (25 SPs) – Flawed talents. A lot of these guys are on the cusp of or have been in the Usually Start tier, but currently you’re looking to curate their starts a bit where you can. These guys might also be US tier arms here temporarily while they get on track. Pay very close attention to gamelogs of pitchers, get a feel for how they arrived at their bottom line numbers. Not all ERAs are created equally and that’s why it’s not a gauge for future production, especially in small samples. I decided to split the group a bit as sort of a way to identify upward or downward mobility for these guys. The shallow ones are a bit more talented and/or running hot so we’re maybe keeping a closer eye on them.

Deep League Spot Start (35 SPs) – I know many of you are dealing with some brutal pitching staff conditions right now after drafting a rotation you thought would be a strength, so you might find yourself in this tier a little more than you’d like. There is some talent to be plucked and the right two-start week could really set you up. This is essentially the Spot Star tier for single leagues or super-deep mixers (16+ teams).

Please leave your questions and comments below!

—

July SP Rankings

	Name	Tier	TM	LG	June	Diff
1	Max Scherzer	#1	WAS	NL	1	0
2	Justin Verlander	#1	HOU	AL	2	0
3	Chris Sale	#1	BOS	AL	3	0
4	Gerrit Cole	#1	HOU	AL	4	0
5	Jacob deGrom	#1	NYM	NL	6	1
6	Hyun-Jin Ryu	#1	LAD	NL	9	3
7	Walker Buehler	#1	LAD	NL	11	4
8	Blake Snell	#1	TB	AL	5	-3
9	Charlie Morton	MS	TB	AL	12	3
10	Clayton Kershaw	MS	LAD	NL	7	-3
11	Stephen Strasburg	MS	WAS	NL	8	-3
12	Zack Greinke	MS	ARI	NL	17	5
13	David Price	MS	BOS	AL	16	3
14	Trevor Bauer	MS	CLE	AL	20	6
15	Luis Castillo	MS	CIN	NL	10	-5
16	Shane Bieber	MS	CLE	AL	22	6
17	Matthew Boyd	MS	DET	AL	14	-3
18	Jose Berrios	MS	MIN	AL	31	13
19	Lucas Giolito	MS	CWS	AL	28	9
20	Patrick Corbin	MS	WAS	NL	13	-7
21	Brandon Woodruff	MS	MIL	NL	39	18
22	Mike Minor	MS	TEX	AL	37	15
23	Mike Clevinger	MS	CLE	AL	N/A	N/A
24	James Paxton	MS	NYY	AL	15	-9
25	Mike Soroka	MS	ATL	NL	30	5
26	Jake Odorizzi	MS	MIN	AL	36	10
27	Aaron Nola	MS	PHI	NL	27	0
28	Zack Wheeler	MS	NYM	NL	18	-10
29	Kyle Hendricks	MS	CHC	NL	35	6
30	Chris Paddack	MS	SD	NL	19	-11
31	Kenta Maeda	MS	LAD	NL	34	3
32	German Marquez	MS	COL	NL	26	-6
33	Madison Bumgarner	MS	SF	NL	32	-1
34	Noah Syndergaard	MS	NYM	NL	25	-9
35	Caleb Smith	MS	MIA	NL	23	-12
36	Domingo German	MS	NYY	AL	29	-7
37	Masahiro Tanaka	MS	NYY	AL	44	7
38	Max Fried	MS	ATL	NL	38	0
39	Lance Lynn	MS	TEX	AL	68	29
40	Jack Flaherty	US	STL	NL	24	-16
41	Griffin Canning	US	LAA	AL	48	7
42	Robbie Ray	US	ARI	NL	41	-1
43	Jordan Lyles	US	PIT	NL	67	24
44	John Means	US	BAL	AL	106	62
45	Joey Lucchesi	US	SD	NL	53	8
46	Sonny Gray	US	CIN	NL	42	-4
47	Kyle Gibson	US	MIN	AL	57	10
48	Zac Gallen	US	MIA	NL	N/A	N/A
49	Yonny Chirinos	US	TB	AL	54	5
50	Eduardo Rodriguez	US	BOS	AL	55	5
51	Zach Eflin	US	PHI	NL	N/A	N/A
52	Wade Miley	US	HOU	AL	59	7
53	Spencer Turnbull	US	DET	AL	50	-3
54	Brendan McKay	US	TB	AL	N/A	N/A
55	Jon Lester	US	CHC	NL	60	5
56	Tyler Mahle	US	CIN	NL	66	10
57	Joe Musgrove	US	PIT	NL	49	-8
58	Jose Quintana	US	CHC	NL	46	-12
59	Yu Darvish	US	CHC	NL	61	2
60	Miles Mikolas	US	STL	NL	47	-13
61	Ross Stripling	US	LAD	NL	N/A	N/A
62	Anibal Sanchez	SSS	WAS	NL	86	24
63	Jon Gray	SSS	COL	NL	81	18
64	Marcus Stroman	SSS	TOR	AL	83	19
65	Jordan Yamamoto	SSS	MIA	NL	N/A	N/A
66	Martin Perez	SSS	MIN	AL	65	-1
67	Trevor Richards	SSS	MIA	NL	71	4
68	Steven Matz	SSS	NYM	NL	51	-17
69	Zach Plesac	SSS	CLE	AL	87	18
70	Matt Strahm	SSS	SD	NL	43	-27
71	Andrew Heaney	SSS	LAA	AL	69	-2
72	Felix Pena	SSS	LAA	AL	56	-16
73	Adrian Sampson	SSS	TEX	AL	N/A	N/A
74	J.A. Happ	SSS	NYY	AL	63	-11
75	Ryan Yarbrough	SSS	TB	AL	85	10
76	Logan Allen	SSS	SD	NL	N/A	N/A
77	Zach Davies	SSS	MIL	NL	72	-5
78	Tanner Roark	SSS	CIN	NL	95	17
79	Sandy Alcantara	SSS	MIA	NL	107	28
80	Adrian Houser	SSS	MIL	NL	N/A	N/A
81	Elieser Hernandez	SSS	MIA	NL	N/A	N/A
82	Merrill Kelly	SSS	ARI	NL	92	10
83	Nick Pivetta	SSS	PHI	NL	58	-25
84	Marco Gonzales	SSS	SEA	AL	90	6
85	Dylan Bundy	SSS	BAL	AL	73	-12
86	Adbert Alzolay	DSS	CHC	NL	N/A	N/A
87	Rick Porcello	DSS	BOS	AL	75	-12
88	Jake Arrieta	DSS	PHI	NL	82	-6
89	Dakota Hudson	DSS	STL	NL	113	24
90	Trevor Williams	DSS	PIT	NL	N/A	N/A
91	CC Sabathia	DSS	NYY	AL	91	0
92	Bryse Wilson	DSS	ATL	NL	N/A	N/A
93	Julio Teheran	DSS	ATL	NL	80	-13
94	Chris Bassitt	DSS	OAK	AL	74	-20
95	Danny Duffy	DSS	KC	AL	98	3
96	Trent Thornton	DSS	TOR	AL	76	-20
97	Tommy Milone	DSS	SEA	AL	N/A	N/A
98	Chris Archer	DSS	PIT	NL	89	-9
99	Michael Wacha	DSS	STL	NL	N/A	N/A
100	Dylan Cease	DSS	CWS	AL	N/A	N/A
101	Eric Lauer	DSS	SD	NL	99	-2
102	Reynaldo Lopez	DSS	CWS	AL	100	-2
103	Anthony DeSclafani	DSS	CIN	NL	102	-1
104	Mike Fiers	DSS	OAK	AL	N/A	N/A
105	Aaron Sanchez	DSS	TOR	AL	79	-26
106	Dallas Keuchel	DSS	ATL	NL	N/A	N/A
107	Jason Vargas	DSS	NYM	NL	N/A	N/A
108	Andrew Cashner	DSS	BAL	AL	N/A	N/A
109	Austin Voth	DSS	WAS	NL	N/A	N/A
110	Daniel Mengden	DSS	OAK	AL	112	2
111	Sean Reid-Foley	DSS	TOR	AL	N/A	N/A
112	Yusei Kikuchi	DSS	SEA	AL	77	-35
113	Brad Keller	DSS	KC	AL	108	-5
114	Chase Anderson	DSS	MIL	NL	103	-11
115	Ariel Jurado	DSS	TEX	AL	110	-5
116	Trevor Cahill	DSS	LAA	AL	97	-19
117	Jeff Samardzija	DSS	SF	NL	101	-16
118	Homer Bailey	DSS	KC	AL	N/A	N/A
119	Shaun Anderson	DSS	SF	NL	105	-14
120	Adam Wainwright	DSS	STL	NL	111	-9
121	Jakob Junis	DSS	KC	AL	114	-7

Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 7/2/2019

The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 712 – July SP Rankings

Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

33 Comments

Oldest

Newest Most Voted

Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff

7 years ago

How the heck did I miss ClevDog?!?!

OddBall Herrera

7 years ago

Reply to Paul Sporer

He’s been off the list for a few months running actually. I just assumed it was the injury.

tampanuggz

7 years ago

Where does Logan Allen go after his clunker last night?

Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff

7 years ago

Reply to tampanuggz

He goes where I ranked him… it includes the dud.

wolfs

7 years ago

No Clev Dog??

goldman76

7 years ago

Missed Mike Clevinger unless I’m the one who missed him. I wish I missed his last start for my team, that’s for sure.

yellowpools

7 years ago

Mike Clevinger is missing from your rankings.

MichaelMember since 2017

7 years ago

Clevinger missing, hope you’re not trying to tell us something!

carterMember since 2020

7 years ago

People are never going to agree entirely with rankings, with that said:

Roark seems low. He has been quite good, and arsenal changes have been generating K’s as well. Mikolas is garbage, unsure why anyone would ever start a guy with a 4.47 fip and 6k per 9 on an average team, I truly thought he would be closer to unranked, not up where he is. Unsure how Marquez is a MS with half his games at Coors, and Bumgarner finally had a good start, but he could be 50 spots lower and I wouldn’t bat an eye. But all and all, good list.

TurgidMember since 2016

7 years ago

You sure you’re not being a homer with your Turnbull ranking? He’s the highest guy available in my league, I need pitching, but I look at him and say “that guy deserves to stay on the wire.”

TurgidMember since 2016

7 years ago

Reply to Turgid

Same with Mahle. Except I look at him and think “Popped a Mahle, I’m sweating, woo!” Which is fun.

Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff

7 years ago

Reply to Turgid

Well he’s on the IL, he shouldn’t even be on the list.

TurgidMember since 2016

7 years ago

Reply to Paul Sporer

Which is important so you can get Strahm back to #69

SaltyMember since 2017

7 years ago

Let’s say Luzardo was promoted at the end of June and debuted with a strong start. Where would you have slotted him in that scenario?

mbrieseMember since 2026

7 years ago

Surprised at how low Stroman is – not a huge K’s guy but a QS in 7 of his last 10 games, including 2 gems against the Red Sox.

DBallMember since 2025

7 years ago

Reply to mbriese

Id say this list is mainly geared towards 5×5 roto leagues so QS dont mean much. Stroman plays for a team that wont get him many W and other than Giles at the back end has a bullpen (23rd in FIP including Giles) that will lose him some games. Hes 44th out of 76 qualified starters in WHIP, 50th in raw strikeout total and 62nd in K%. Classic better in real life than fantasy guy, hes a 1 category contributor playing in a division filled with hitters parks and good offences.

Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff

7 years ago

Reply to mbriese

Perfectly fair, particularly if I’m going to rank Mikolas where I did. So I hear you on that.

brianmcmahonMember since 2019

7 years ago

I’m surprised Pineda didn’t make it.

AnonMember since 2025

7 years ago

Both Caleb Smith and Domingo German are on the IL, but both are expected back this week I think. I know German is and Smith pitched on Sunday so he should be back for the weekend. (No idea why Smith wasn’t back last week actually. He really didn’t need a 2nd rehab start given that he looked sharp in his 1st one).

ABaseballDude

7 years ago

#Biebs in the top20 (heart emoji’s abound)

LloydMember since 2018

7 years ago

Assuming he sticks in the majors, where would Lewis Thorpe slot in?

manormachine

7 years ago

asdhfalksdhflkjafd

-3

NicklePickersMember since 2016

7 years ago

Thanks for an excellent list as always! I see yarborough and pena listed and am interested in the ranking of followers. Did Beeks or Leblanc draw consideration?

rustydudeMember since 2021

7 years ago

Keck, 1 spot below Aaron Sanchez at #106… ouch.

seprotzmann

7 years ago

Whereabouts would a healthy Pablo Lopez fall?

Kid CharlemagneMember since 2026

7 years ago

Greinke since June 1: 6.3 K/9, velo way down, unsustainable, career-low BB & HR rates, Steamer RoS ERA 4.02. Does Top 12 SP rank reflect a legacy effect?

carterMember since 2020

7 years ago

Reply to Kid Charlemagne

Seems like every time Greinke is “finished”, or velocity down, he makes it work somehow. I think he is a guy we just have to have faith in. If you use QS he is the #4 overall pitcher this year, and #5 player, and if you use standard 5×5 he is #5 pitcher and 15th overall. So I get it, he might regress, but he seems like a guy that every time you fade him because he is throwing 84 in spring he proves you wrong.

Goms

7 years ago

I count 8 people I would put Nola above for the ROS that are currently above him.

-1

Runaway ToasterMember since 2016

7 years ago

No Cole Hamels, or am I missing something? No way he’s lower than #106, right? Or is it due to the recent injury?

Edit: Yup, probably because he’s on the IL now. Apologies. Any general idea of where Hamels would rank though?

-1

Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff

7 years ago

Reply to Runaway Toaster

Ya he didn’t have a return date like a couple currently IL’d guys that I put on like Smith & German, but I think Hamels is a Must Start at this point. Just hard to see how you’re benching him at this point (once healthy again, obv)

dleoboydMember since 2016

7 years ago

Excellent rankings. I’d probably have Nola at #20 or #21.

samyoung

7 years ago

Circa late May, I was in love with Dylan Cease’s minor league track record. Since then, he’s struggled pretty hard. With his debut now upon his, are you feeling more bullish or more bearish in terms of his near-term performance? How much leash to give as a fantasy owner?

Matthew TobinMember since 2025

7 years ago

I have a problem with German Marquez being a Must Start. A 5.73 ERA and 1.59 WHIP a borderline unplayable. The K%-BB% is worse too. He needs to be curated because there is no chance I am starting him vs… say the Dodgers at home.

I know “You paid big money for him,so you got to start him” argument, but I’d rather start Jon Gray at home at this point.

Speaking of Jon Gray, I don’t see much of a difference between Marquez and Gray going forward.