Starting Pitcher Velocity Changers Last 14 Days

While we typically shout “SMALL SAMPLE SIZE” when attempting to evaluate players without buckets full of data, pitchers do offer us a wonderful number that stabilizes super quickly — velocity. Big changes here could result in a significant change in skill, ultimately affecting ERA. So let’s compare velocity over the last 14 days, which would typically include two to three starts, to velocity averaged prior. I’ll highlight the biggest gainers and losers.

Last 14 Day Fastball Velocity Changes
Name Through 6-16 vFA Last 14 Days vFA Diff vFA
Patrick Corbin 91.7 93.3 1.6
Joe Musgrove 92.2 93.5 1.3
Jon Gray 96.0 97.1 1.1
Eduardo Rodriguez 93.0 94.1 1.1
Yusei Kikuchi 93.6 91.8 -1.8
Ivan Nova* 92.8 91.2 -1.6
Daniel Norris 90.9 89.9 -1.0
*Sinker velocity

During Patrick Corbin’s re-breakout last season, he endured a strange season from a velocity perspective. Early on, his velocity was way up, providing an easy narrative for the breakout. But then it declined precipitously, though it didn’t affect his results. Ultimately, it gradually rebounded and trended upward through the rest of the season. This year, he essentially began at his trough of last season, but has been rising ever since. While he hasn’t maintained the underlying skills to match last year’s performance, his strikeout rate gains have mostly held. The increasing velocity suggests he’ll remain a strong performer all year.

Still remember when Joe Musgrove started so strongly? He allowed just six runs through his first five starts, plus one two inning relief appearance. Then the wheels fell off and he’s been inconsistent since. The good news is that the fastball velocity that was down all season has spiked and now sits just below last year’s season average. Musgrove continues to generate double digit SwStk%, but it hasn’t translated into above average strikeout rates yet. One of these years it could, and with his sterling control, it could lead to an easy breakout.

Quietly, Jon Gray is enjoying a full rebound and his average fastball velocity is nearing a career best. He’s even turned it up a notch in the last two weeks. Amazingly, he has posted much better results at home, and has actually posted a slightly better ERA at Coors Field in his career. Despite what the stats tell me, I still feel like if I owned him, I would only want to start him in away games.

Eduardo Rodriguez’s velocity over the last two weeks is now back to his 2014 mark, which could help boost his strikeout rate back to the levels of the last two seasons. Sitting with both an inflated BABIP and HR/FB rate, he is seemingly an excellent trade target in most league formats.

Man, Yusei Kikuchi has been a mess. While he began with pretty good velocity for a southpaw, he’s now no different than the average. His slider has been pretty good at inducing whiffs, but holy cow, that curve ball has been atrocious, as it sports a measly 3.8% SwStk%. And yet he throws it 20% of the time! It’s only been 18 starts and 91.1 innings, but perhaps he should just stick with his fastball and slider or he might be better off in the bullpen. Patrick Corbin is who he could aspire to become.

With his velocity down, there’s just nothing for Ivan Nova to turn things around. He’s never had a good strikeout rate, and it’ll be much more difficult to achieve one barely averaging more than 91 mph with his fastball. Give me a middle reliever over him in literally every league format and size.

Yeesh, Daniel Norris now just below 90 mph with his fastball. He lost a big chunk of velocity last year and it hasn’t come back. I’m genuinely curious what happened to him. He has dealt with groin issues over the years, but nothing arm related. Could the groin alone be responsible for a near three mile per hour loss in velocity?! Regardless of the cause, who he is now is not rosterable.





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

2 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
bluerum29
4 years ago

So the stats tell you Gray is better at home, yet you wouldn’t want to start him at home. He has been really good this year. If I have a starter on my team, I put them out there every start.