Let’s review the first Pod Projection I posted for the 2019 season, Yusei Kikuchi, who was to make his MLB debut from Japan. It’s difficult enough to project players with no Major League experience, such as rookies coming up from the minor leagues. It’s even more challenging to try the forecast game when that player with no MLB experience is actually coming from a foreign league. Translating their foreign league performance is more art than science. Luckily, the DELTA website helped by supplying some of the season metrics, which I did my best to translate to a Major League equivalent to use as a guide. Let’s see how he performed versus my projections and the rest of the systems.

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As I have at the end of the first half since 2013, I grouped two sets of pitchers together and aggregated their results through the half based on the degree of SIERA outperformance and underperformance. I then asked you which group of pitchers would perform better from an ERA perspective over the second half, and which range each group’s ERA would fall into. This year’s poll and voting results are here.

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I’ve screwed up. A lot. A few years back, I created a pitching metric called pERA which took each individual pitch’s results (swinging-strike and groundball rate) and combined them into one metric. The problem was that I wrote the article in 2016 and used a formula I created back in 2015 with 2002-2015 data. The juiced ball arrived and I never adjusted the formula for the change. Oopsy.

I felt a little sick when it finally dawned on me that the formula needed updating and ma initial findings are available in this Twitter thread.

I've invested too much time this morning looking into GB%, ERA, and ERA estimators. Two conclusions:

1. Happy Fun Ball has everything messed up. Don't assume any previous assumptions are true.
2. Groundball pitchers are ruling the day.

1/6

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) August 16, 2019

It finally dawned on me that the formula I was using to evaluate pitchers was off. With strikeouts and walks being equal, groundball pitchers outperform flyball pitchers. With a deadened ball, a high flyball rate meant most flyballs would go for easy outs. Not any more. Now those flyballs go for home runs. It’s time for a little math to show the change.
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9/27/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host
• @pitcherlist – Co-Host/Producer

STUDS SINCE AUGUST 1ST:

• Sean Manaea
• Mike Foltynewicz
• Dakota Hudson

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Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

Note: The starters are listed in order of value

Hell Yea

None

Multiple Category Contribution

Joe Musgrove (46%) at CHC: Musgrove was the closest to making the Hell Yea group but I’m not sold on the Win and afraid the Cubs will hit him around. He’s the best option, but just not a slam dunk.

Aaron Civale (46%) at CWS: He’s good but not 1.82 ERA good. Somehow he’s maintained a 0.3 HR/9 with a mediocre 40% GB%. With regression coming now or next season in the ERA department, he doesn’t walk anyone (2.2 BB/9) and should get a Win against the White Sox.

Chase Anderson (16%) at CIN: Chase the Win and get a few strikeouts (8.2 K/9) along the way without completely destroying a team’s ERA (4.30) and WHIP (1.26).

Devin Smeltzer (3%) at DET: He’s in the Civale camp with a decent chance for a Win and his 2.5 BB/9 helps keep his WHIP (1.18) low.
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Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

I’m listing them in order of interest.

SCOOP ‘EM

Jordan Lyles (11-8, 4.17 ERA) at CIN | 40%: He’s only been good since shifting over to Milwaukee (2.35 ERA, 1.12 WHIP in 10 starts) so that probably explains the roster rate, but don’t sleep on him. The Cincy offense is a little chilly, too, toting a .291 wOBA against righties in September.

Jeff Samardzija (11-12, 3.64) v. COL | 43%: I’m surprised his roster rate is this low, but he should be on a roster in most competitive. Check your wire juuust in case.

Read the rest of this entry »

Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

Note: The starters are listed in order of value

Hell Yea

Homer Bailey (30%) at LAA: He meets all the requirements for a good streamer, especially since joining the A’s, with an 8.6 K/9, just a 2.0 BB/9, six Wins, and a 4.21 ERA.

Partial Category Contribution

Rich Hill (39%)/Ross Stripling (39%) at SD: If Stripling starts, I love him in the follower role here. The only red flag may be a limited number of innings.

Dylan Bundy (19%) at TOR: Strikeouts (9.1 K/9) and a possible Win against the Jays. The strikeouts may not be as high since he’s reinventing himself as the season goes on. He’s starting to mix in a sinker and throw his four-seamer less. His strikeouts have gone from 9.5 K/9 in the first half to 8.5 K/9. Over the same time, his HR/9 has dropped from 2.0 to 1.1. The problem is the Orioles defense which has let too many groundballs through and his BABIP has increased from .276 to .339.

Anthony Kay (3%) vs BAL: I guess I’m the most interested in the Baltimore-Toronto game. Kay’s been striking out batters this season (8.4 K/9). He’s keeping the ball on the ground so far in the majors (52%) and has limited the homers. While his ERA is near 6.00, his ERA estimators are around 4.00. He’s a fine option.
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Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

I’m listing them in order of interest.

SCOOP ‘EM

Joe Musgrove (10-12, 4.52) v. SEA | 44%: It’s hard not to feel that Musgrove is getting ready for his standard “rug-pull” start given the ups and downs of the season, but I’m still starting him here. He’s got a 3.89 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in his last six starts spanning 34.7 innings, including 34 strikeouts against just six walks. The Mariners have just a .305 wOBA and 26% K rate against righties over the last month.

Read the rest of this entry »

Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

Note: The starters are listed in order of value

Hell Yea

Aaron Civale (43%) vs DET: I don’t believe in the 1.93 ERA with a 4.56 xFIP and 4.65 SIERA but the home matchup (vs Zimmermann) is great.

Tony Gonsolin (0%) vs TB: Golsolin is a similar talent to Civale but Gonsolin’s matchup versus the Rays is tougher.

Dinelson Lamet (20%) at MIL: He’s a must-start even though he’s on the road in Milwaukee.

Zach Eflin (28%) at ATL: This might be the most boring pickup but he has been consistently OK over the course of this season. I just wish he was facing someone besides Atlanta.
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Yesterday, I discussed the idea of picking up current dominant relievers in your keeper league who could potentially close next year. Cheap closers are gold in mono leagues, especially if they could hold onto the role all season. Now we’ll flip to the guys who could join the starting rotation next season, but aren’t currently. These are all young pitchers who have posted at least a 25% strikeout rate. The idea here is if you’re in a keeper league, you could pick up these pitchers, some of which have little current season value, for cheap and potentially end up with a starting pitcher heading into the season with solid upside.

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