Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

I’m listing them in order of interest.

SCOOP ‘EM

Zach Davies (9-7, 3.69) at MIA | 30%: Davies could be a lot worse and still qualify as a recommendation against the Marlins. They are simply one of the best teams to pick on down the stretch. Davies won’t do much for your strikeouts, but I’ll take 5-6 strong innings with a few strikeouts and strong win probability here.

John Means (10-10, 3.50 ERA) v. LAD | 37%: The 2019 All Star has done his best work at home (2.86 ERA/0.98 WHIP) and while the Dodgers are unquestionably one of the best teams in the league, they aren’t their best against lefties. Since the All-Star break, the Dodgers are 14th in wOBA against southpaws with the 4th-highest strikeout rate at 25%. While Means has been better against sub-.500 teams, he’s at 4.00 ERA/1.21 WHIP against .500 or better teams and I’d take a start like that here against the Dodgers.

Read the rest of this entry »

Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

Note: The starters are listed in order of value

Hell Yea

Tanner Roark (31%) at HOU: I don’t love the game being at Houston but he just goes against Wade Miley. He strikes out batters. Doesn’t walk many. He’s got a good team behind him. Sure why not.

Mitch Keller (7%) at SF: I know he has an 8.18 ERA, but his ERA estimators are between 3.75 to 4.00. A .469 BABIP is dragging him down but it’s tough to pass on the 12.0 K/9.

Partial Category Contribution

Read the rest of this entry »

Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

Note: The starters are listed in order of value

Hell Yea

Adrian Houser vs CHC (21%): A strikeout rate over 9 K/9. A walk rate near 3.0. A groundball rate at 54%. A 3.45 ERA. ERA estimators at or under 4.00. What else is fantasy owner hoping for?

Anthony DeSclafani vs ARI (28%): I wish the start was on the road since he’s a little more home run prone at home (1.8 HR/9 vs 1.6 HR/9). Considering the suspect talents under 50% owned, he’s a fine option.
Read the rest of this entry »

Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

I’m listing them in order of interest.

SCOOP ‘EM

Chris Bassitt (9-5, 3.67) v. DET | 46%: Bassitt might still be out on Paternity Leave, but I’m seeing he’s slated to start after getting pushed from Thursday, so I stuck with writing him up. He’s had a really strong season and been particularly good since the break with a 2.75 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 52.3 IP. His ERA could be two runs higher and I’d still recommend him against the Tigers. Go pick him up before even finishing this article!

Read the rest of this entry »

Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate). Read the rest of this entry »

We are covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. Here is Thursday’s slate. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate). The pitchers are in order of how I’d rank them.

Hell Yea

Chris Bassitt vs LAA (45%): While Bassitt has had some luck (.257 BABIP), he’s not been horrible in any one category (3.67 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 9 Wins). He’s on a good team facing a below-average one. He’s what owners should like for in a streamer.

Logan Webb at STL (10%): I’m not a fan of his supporting cast, but Webb might be must-start for the rest of the season. His 9.4 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 are supported by his minor league stats. His 56% GB% is near elite and it’s impossible for ground balls to fly out as a homer. I know it’s only been three starts for him but with the lack of starting pitching, he needs to be owned in every league.
Read the rest of this entry »

Down the stretch, we’ll be covering the probable starters and highlighting our favorites to stream as you chase down your fantasy titles. Let’s get started with Wednesday’s slate. The pitcher in question must be available in 50% or more of leagues according to FantasyPros.com which combines ESPN and Yahoo! roster rates (sometimes exceptions just over 50% will be mentioned if they are really good and should have a much higher roster rate).

Edwin Jackson (3-8, 9.35 ERA) at KC | 0%: No, of course not.

Jakob Junis (8-12, 4.93) v. DET | 17% roster rate: Just about anyone facing the Tigers is going to be a “yes”. While Junis has a near-5.00 ERA on the season, he’s down at a passable 3.96 over the last 10 games with 59 strikeouts, 17% K-BB, and 1.26 WHIP in 61.3 innings. He hasn’t allowed more than 4 ER in any of those starts, including a 6 IP/2 ER/6 K gem against these Tigers back on August 11th.

Read the rest of this entry »

If there were ever a baseball question that keeps me up it night, it’s this: how do the physical properties of pitches affect batted ball outcomes? Many researchers have tackled the subject with varying degrees of success and elucidation. My attempts have focused primarily on a pitch’s ability to generate swinging strikes and ground balls, the first of which used pitcher-level PITCHf/x data while the more recent of which used individual pitch-level Statcast data.

While modeling whiffs and grounders is interesting (and important, too), something strikes me as much more compelling and confounding: the relationship, if any, between a pitch’s physical properties and its batted ball outcomes, whether described as exit velocity, launch angle, or total base-run value allowed, as measured by weighted on-base average (wOBA) or even expected wOBA (xwOBA).

The ability to prove “contact management” as a legitimate and shared pitcher skill has long eluded the Sabermetric community. Assumptions of a league-average batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and, for xFIP, home runs per fly ball (HR/FB) pervade the common ERA estimators (FIP, xFIP, SIERA) we use to gauge talent and assign value. Those assumptions regarding BABIP and HR/FB imply a pitcher’s inability to control them — and there isn’t much evidence to suggest otherwise.

Read the rest of this entry »

8/21/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

SPS ON FIRE SINCE THE BREAK:

• Ryan Yarbrough (1:40)
• Cal Quantrill (8:35)
• Zac Gallen (17:50)
• Chris Bassitt (28:00)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Last week, I tried to find any positive mid-season changes a pitcher has implemented to improve their fantasy stock for the final few weeks. I started with pitchers owned in 16% to 30% of Fantrax leagues and will now be digging even deeper after Mike Montgomery popped up on my radar as someone making positive skill changes.

A pitcher I targetted this FAAB period was the Royals Mike Montgomery. With the Royals, he's improved his ERA, K's, BB's, and GB% by changing his pitch mix

He's increased his cutter (12% SwStr%) usage from 4% to 20% and dropped his sinker (6% SwStr%) usage from 35% to 22%

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) August 19, 2019

Jordan Zimmermann (16%): Whoa, he’s changed his arsenal around with a mid-season introduction of a sinker (11% SwStr%, 69% GB%). It’s tough to buy too much of the change since he has a 6.29 ERA in the season’s first half and 7.31 ERA in the second half. It wasn’t until the last four starts when he started using his sinker even more (14% usage) and therefore has a 4.35 ERA, 7.4 K/9, and 0.9 BB/9.

Also, August was the first month he threw his slider (40%) more than his four-seamer (36%). He pulling out all the stops to remain relevant. Even with the changes, he’s likely a 4.25 ERA pitcher at best but in some leagues, that production level is useful.
Read the rest of this entry »