Next Year’s Reliever to Starter Fantasy Value Boost

Yesterday, I discussed the idea of picking up current dominant relievers in your keeper league who could potentially close next year. Cheap closers are gold in mono leagues, especially if they could hold onto the role all season. Now we’ll flip to the guys who could join the starting rotation next season, but aren’t currently. These are all young pitchers who have posted at least a 25% strikeout rate. The idea here is if you’re in a keeper league, you could pick up these pitchers, some of which have little current season value, for cheap and potentially end up with a starting pitcher heading into the season with solid upside.

After a dominating breakout 2018 performance in the minors, Josh James debuted for the Astros and proved that breakout was no fluke. He was a favorite to make the rotation out of spring training, but unfortunately a quad injury delayed his spring training and he never got another chance to rejoin the rotation. But as a reliever, he has reminded us how good his stuff is. His 38.2% strikeout rate has been fueled by a 16.3% SwStk%, thanks to an elite trio of pitches, starting with his high 90s fastball, and complemented by a slider and changeup, both of which sport SwStk% marks around 20%. His control has been an issue and his extreme fly ball ways is a bit scary in this home run environment. But he should most certainly be given another opportunity to start, though you never know when that might be given the Astros’ options.

Lucas Sims was a former Braves prospect, but shipped off to the Reds before the 2018 trade deadline. Mostly a starting pitcher in the minors with solid strikeout rates, but problematic control at times, Sims has mostly pitched in relief with the Reds this year. With the move to the bullpen, his strikeout rate has surged to 34.2%, backed by an impressive 15.3% SwStk%. All four pitches he has thrown this season have generated double digit SwStk% marks, which is quite an accomplishment. While he may very well be one of many examples of pitchers who simply can’t cut it in a starting role, but dominates in relief, his performance should give him another shot in the starting rotation.

I first discussed Patrick Sandoval after his second start, recommending him as a deep league waiver wire pickup. Though his ERA has stood at just 4.63 since then, his SIERA has been a more palatable 4.01, while he has struck out 26.3% of the batters he has faced. Though he technically is in the starting rotation, he has only gone five innings twice, and it hasn’t always been due to ineffectiveness. He has generally been treated like an opener, so it would be easy to forget about his likelihood of making the rotation next year. Sandoval has a history of big SwStk% marks in the minors, while most of his strikeout rates have also been impressive. Not the hardest of throwers, it’s been his changeup that has been the key to his whiffs, as the pitch has generated an awesome 26.5% SwStk%.

Like James above, Jose Urquidy is another 2020 starting rotation candidate, as he has been up and down from the minors, mostly making starts, but also getting in four innings of relief ball with the Astros this year. He also wasn’t a heralded prospect, but really broke out at Double-A and then Triple-A this season, and has continued posting solid skills in the Majors. Like Sandoval, he doesn’t throw harder than the league average, but his strikeouts have been driven by an elite slider, while his control has been impeccable.

Lewis Thorpe is another prospect who wasn’t highly ranked heading into the season and has mostly pitched in relief for the Twins, but has been up and down from the minors like Urquidy. His results have been marred by a ridiculous .419 BABIP, though some of that is his fault thanks to allowing a crazy 32.3% line drive rate. Though his fastball velocity is underwhelming at just above 91 MPH, he has posted strikeout rates of at least 25.6% at every minor league stop and at least 28% at every stop since Double-A in 2017. It’s been an elite slider doing the job and a measly 3.9% SwStk% for his curve ball suggests he could be even more effective if he were to scrap the pitch (though oddly, that was the pitch that garnered the highest scouting grade).

We all know Julio Urias and it’s highly likely he’s rostered in your keeper league, but let’s not forget about him, which is easy to do as he has bounced between the rotation and bullpen all season. The one time top prospect has battled injury, but finally healthy enough to record over 70 innings for the first time since 2016. His stuff has been fantastic, with his fastball averaging over 95 MPH, en route to a 25.3% strikeout rate supported by a 13.6% SwStk%. All three of his primary pitches sport strong SwStk% marks for their pitch type. If he’s guaranteed a rotation spot out of spring training with the expectation of at least 150 innings, he’s going to be a hyped sleeper. Better to get in early as a keeper leaguer.