Another dive into pitchers going after pick 300 in the NFBC. Here are some arms I’ve already examined.
Starting and Relievers, Part 1 & 2($$):
Deep League Starting Pitchers
Yesterday, I reviewed the early season starting pitcher SIERA underperformers and discovered that the majority did indeed improve their ERA marks over the rest of the season, some significantly so. Now let’s flip over to the list of SIERA overperformers. Were these pitchers able to sustain their magic or did the force of regression prove too powerful?
Pitching coaches can make a big impact on starting pitchers in real life as well as in fantasy. Just take a look at Carlos Rodon and Dylan Cease last season with Ethan Katz. Katz stepped in and both of those pitchers took a step forward. About a month ago the Arizona Diamondbacks hired a new pitching coach in Brent Strom. Following this introduction, we are going to look at a few of the pitchers on the Arizona Diamondbacks and see who has the potential to take a step forward.
Today, I’ll review my favorite in-season ERA estimator, SIERA. This was the list of SIERA underperformers through May 3. The idea here was that absent a significant change in underlying skills (K%, BB%, batted ball profile), these pitchers should post much improved ERA marks the rest of the way as their luck metrics (BABIP, HR/FB, LOB%) normalize. Let’s find out if that did indeed happen.
Yesterday, I reviewed the starting pitchers who experienced an early season GB% surge to find out if those spikes were sustained over the rest of the season. Today, let’s now review the early season GB% decliners. Did their GB% marks rebound or remain down, increasing the risk of gopheritis? Let’s find out.
Four more starters as I work my way through the list. Here are the ones I’ve already done.
Starting and Relievers, Part 1 & 2($$):
Deep League Starting Pitchers
Steven Matz (301 ADP)
I probably spent way too much time digging into Matz and eventually came to the conclusion that he’s a fine starter. His profile begins and ends with his pitch mix.
| Pitch | SwStr% | GB% | Pre-IL Usage | Post IL Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 7% | 45% | 47% | 56% |
| Change | 14% | 50% | 24% | 23% |
| Curve | 11% | 38% | 17% | 17% |
| Slider | 9% | 41% | 12% | 4% |
His sinker and change got a good number of swings and misses compared to similar pitches. Also, it was a good idea for him to move away from the slider and throw the curve as a third pitch after coming off the IL. The problem there was that he threw his sinker more and the strikeouts dropped.
Today, let’s move over to review early starting pitcher metrics and whether the surges or declines stuck around over the rest of the season. Unlike for hitters where depending on the type of hitter they are, the optimal batted ball profile is easier to determine, it’s not as straightforward for pitchers. So this isn’t necessarily a “good” list to be on, but it could change the shape of the pitcher’s performance. More grounders should result in fewer homers, but likely more hits allowed and a higher BABIP. So let’s get to the names of those that had increased their GB% by at least 10% through Apr 19 and see whether their GB% spikes were sustained.
As baseball history keeps telling us, a pitcher’s ultimate success often starts with the heater, providing a base of core strength for their pitch-mix body on which the glamor muscles of the breaking stuff can better be supported.
With that in mind, let’s look at the best fastballs from starters in 2022 according to Run-Value (per 100 pitches) before looking at three possible draft-day bargains. While Run Value is by no means the end-all measurement of overall quality, (nor necessarily predictive), it does give us a solid snapshot of the overall results that a pitch returned while sending up flares for where further investigation might be warranted.
For this exercise, we will be looking at starting pitchers and their NFBC ADP as of 11/29/21. It’s always interesting to see how the crowd thinks, who they seem to value, and how fantasy managers are shaping their drafts. For instance, how many pitchers are going in the first round? How many fantasy managers are grabbing two starting pitchers in the first three rounds? A lot to unpack and a lot of different aspects to analyze. We will go by round and after each round, we will discuss briefly what we are seeing! To note: this is based on Draft Champions which is a 15 team format with about 14 completed drafts.
2021 is over and we turn the page to 2022. Here are my current ranks for the outfield position for 2022, my second of the offseason. I will post updates as things change with signings, injuries, or news in Major League Baseball.
You can review my ranks for other positions here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/category/rankings/ Read the rest of this entry »
