Brent Strom’s Fantasy Impact

Pitching coaches can make a big impact on starting pitchers in real life as well as in fantasy. Just take a look at Carlos Rodon and Dylan Cease last season with Ethan Katz. Katz stepped in and both of those pitchers took a step forward. About a month ago the Arizona Diamondbacks hired a new pitching coach in Brent Strom. Following this introduction, we are going to look at a few of the pitchers on the Arizona Diamondbacks and see who has the potential to take a step forward.

Let’s start with the new hire Brent Strom, who is Brent Strom? Brent Strom has been the pitching coach for the Houston Astros twice as well as the Kansas City Royals. Strom is known to combine both old-school scouting as well as analytics. He coached both Dallas Keuchel and Justin Verlander to Cy Young awards and has brought out the potential in many others. Here is a great quote from pitcher Charlie Morton: “With Strom and the methodology the Astros have here, you create room for error by using the entire zone, elevating above the zone, expanding east and west.” “It makes it a lot easier to pitch.” As you can see Strom has a long track record and this is a fantastic addition for the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Let’s talk fantasy-relevant starting pitchers on the Diamondbacks and try to hone in on who could have the potential to provide a lot of draft-day value.

Madison Bumgarner (NFBC ADP: 431)

The 32-year-old pitcher who has a 45-year-old arm finished the 2021 season with a 4.67 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. He was able to pitch in 26 starts and his fastball velocity averaged at 90.5 MPH. Most notably though, his fastball averaged just 89.8 MPH in the final two months of the season drawing serious stamina concerns.

When I think about a new pitching coach coming over, especially one as good as Strom, I want to find some kind of spark in a pitcher’s profile. Something that tells me maybe there is something there and maybe Strom can fix him.

Bumgarner has certainly lost his velocity which means he needs to take the Zack Greinke route. He needs to be crafty and have a plethora of pitches to keep hitters on their toes. Bumgarner mainly threw three pitches last season and none of them were actually that bad. None of them have high groundball rates but the quality of contact against them was fairly decent. The issue with him was home runs and his command, due to his slow-moving pitches if he misses in the middle he is giving up a home run. Bumgarner has struggled with home runs for three seasons now and whether or not Strom can fix his command will be tough to tell.

Verdict: While Strom might be able to figure something out mechanically to help his command, the diminishing velocity and small margin of error make him a tough pitcher to draft. Even with a new pitching coach.

Zac Gallen (NFBC ADP: 139)

We all know Gallen has the stuff to become one of the top pitchers in the league. He has a deep arsenal as well as great movement on his pitches and in his three seasons he has a 3.46 ERA in 273.1 innings.

The issue with Gallen isn’t talent, it’s health. Last year he experienced a forearm injury, an elbow injury, and a hamstring injury. That is no bueno. With that said I’m not sure how much a pitching coach can help with that, maybe something with the way he throws? Either way we all know Gallen is good, he just needs to stay healthy.

Merrill Kelly (NFBC ADP: 428)

Kelly is a little like Bumgarner in that his ability to perform well relies on his fastball velocity. Unfortunately, that fastball velocity dipped last year down about half a tick and it resulted in a fastball with a 146 wRC+ against as well as a .268 ISO against. This is where Kelly is different from Bumgarner though, his breaking balls have some upside.

Last season all three of Merrill Kelly’s breaking balls had positive pVAL’s, so he knew how to utilize them well. All three of them also had a sub 100 wRC+ against as well as a sub 6% barrel rate against. This leaves me with the question, what if Kelly lowers his fastball usage rate and throws his breaking balls more? There isn’t strikeout upside here but there could be ratio upside if Strom can figure out the correct pitch mix for Kelly.

Luke Weaver (NFBC ADP: 445)

Weaver went from having a 2.94 ERA in 2019 to a 6.58 ERA in 2020 and then to a 4.25 ERA in 2021. All of them come in small samples between 65 to 52 innings. As for 2021, the 4.25 ERA came with a 15.3 K-BB% as well as a 4.29 SIERA. Basically, he looks to be a low four ERA pitcher moving forward.

Here’s the thing, Weaver has some potential with his solid arsenal. He has two good fastballs in his cutter and four-seam both of which have good vertical movement. Then you have the changeup which has solid velocity separation and in 2019 as well as 2020 it had an SwStr% over 18%. He has three really solid pitches and one of them has been elite in the past.

If I am picking one pitcher who could benefit the most from the Strom hiring it would be Weaver. He does come with injury risk with a strained right shoulder last season but at pick 445 that risk isn’t very important.

Tyler Gilbert (NFBC ADP: 677)

Gilbert was a fun story last season and in 40 innings he finished with a 3.15 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. The main crutch about Gilbert is that he finished with just a 7.6 K-BB%, a very low rate that lead to a 5.21 SIERA.

Gilbert has always seemed to perform well at every level he has pitched at and it mainly comes from his knack to keep the ball inside the park. Last year all of his pitches induced a ton of weak contact and it’s hard to really dispute what he did. I think the main issue here is will he stay in the rotation and how much upside could there be with a pitcher who throws in the upper 80’s?

Caleb Smith (NFBC ADP: 589)

Yes, I am bringing Smith into the conversation! Smith wasn’t able to perform well enough as a starter in 2021 and the Diamondbacks eventually moved him into the bullpen. Smith is an interesting case because while he has a severe home run issue he does have strikeout potential.

Now he certainly performed much better as a relief pitcher (2.70 ERA) and he very well could be more built to live in the bullpen. But with a fantastic slider and changeup combination maybe Strom sees something he can fix? I still believe Caleb Smith has upside and maybe the right pitching coach can bring out that potential.