The Current Starting Pitcher NFBC ADP Landscape

For this exercise, we will be looking at starting pitchers and their NFBC ADP as of 11/29/21. It’s always interesting to see how the crowd thinks, who they seem to value, and how fantasy managers are shaping their drafts. For instance, how many pitchers are going in the first round? How many fantasy managers are grabbing two starting pitchers in the first three rounds? A lot to unpack and a lot of different aspects to analyze. We will go by round and after each round, we will discuss briefly what we are seeing! To note: this is based on Draft Champions which is a 15 team format with about 14 completed drafts.

First Round:
Shohei Ohtani
Gerrit Cole
Corbin Burnes
Walker Buehler

My impression here is that this seems about right, last season by March there were four pitchers being taken in the first round. This season two more are on the cusp of reaching the first round which means we could be seeing six pitchers in the first round. Ohtani is the clear number one here because he has dual eligibility, otherwise Ohtani the pitcher would be going much later.

Second Round:
Max Scherzer
Brandon Woodruff
Jacob deGrom
Zack Wheeler
Shane Bieber
Julio Urias

With six more pitchers going in the second round it looks like a lot of teams want either one ace or two. In this case, 8 teams out of 15 will have at least one starting pitcher which is more than half of the teams. Starting pitching seems to have a ton of depth this year but in terms of feeling comfortable with your SP1, it does fall off a cliff quickly. There are a few risky pitchers in this grouping. Jacob deGrom will be one of the more controversial picks due to continuous health issues, Shane Bieber is coming off of that shoulder strain, and everyone is wondering if Max Scherzer can continue to be an elite starter with his age. All three have fantasy managers who either aren’t worried at all or are worried where they won’t touch them here making this round a very interesting one.

Third Round:
Lucas Giolito
Aaron Nola
Robbie Ray
Chris Sale
Sandy Alcantara

Personally, this grouping is really intriguing to me. Lucas Giolito is a former 2021 first-round pick with high strikeout upside and someone who could accumulate a ton of wins. Aaron Nola was extremely unlucky last season based on his underlying numbers. If Robbie Ray can repeat his 2021 you can get a lot of value here. We all know Chris Sale’s potential and if Sandy Alcantara can keep the strikeout rate up he will easily be top 10 for 2023.

Fourth Round:
Kevin Gausman
Freddy Peralta
Logan Webb
Jack Flaherty
Lance Lynn

If you come out of a 15 team draft pairing up Aaron Nola and Lance Lynn how could you not be happy? That could be 400 innings with a 3.50 ERA right there. This season is so different than last season and perhaps waiting for starting pitching is indeed the right move? Overall this grouping has two young attractive options in Freddy Peralta and Logan Webb. Both pitched really well and both have small track records but both have the potential to be top-end starters. Pairing one of them with someone like Brandon Woodruff could be a great play.

Fifth Round:
Jose Berrios
Max Fried
Luis Castillo
Frankie Montas

This is kind of a boring grouping but in a good way. If you took an early risk this is a good spot to take pitchers that continue to be solid year in and year out in Jose Berrios and Max Fried. I’m a huge Luis Castillo love and I’m just praying someone pays up to get him out of Cincinnati with that horrible defense and even worse ballpark. Frankie Montas is fantastic when his splitter is on and used at a high usage otherwise he is just decent but in the end, he should produce solid results.

Sixth Round:
Joe Musgrove
Alek Manoah
Dylan Cease
Charlie Morton
Yu Darvish

Charlie Morton is the boring pick here which probably makes him a great pick. Alek Manoah and Dylan Cease are the upside plays while Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish are the “will they rebound?” types. This just goes to show at this point in the draft it is all about preference and team needs.

Seventh Round:
Trevor Rogers
Shane McClanahan

Two young pitchers who could really excel right here. Trevor Rogers had his breakout season cut short because of family issues and COVID. Shane McClanahan had a fantastic rookie campaign and really showcased his talent. The reason for them being low in my opinion would be: Rogers will likely struggle to get wins and McClanahan will likely struggle to get innings.

Eighth Round:
Pablo Lopez
Carlos Rodon
Tyler Mahle
Lance McCullers

Here comes the injury grouping! Pablo Lopez is a fantastic pitcher but the nagging shoulder issues are worrisome. The same goes for Carlos Rodon but times two since he has had a shoulder issue for about four seasons in a row. Lance McCullers couldn’t pitch in the ALCS due to a forearm strain and the fact that he couldn’t even pitch in the bullpen is not a good sign. Then you have Tyler Mahle who much like Luis Castillo struggles with his home stadium and terrible defense. He is on the trading block though so maybe he finds himself in a better situation.

Ninth Round:
Ian Anderson
Shane Baz
Nathan Eovaldi
Chris Bassitt
Logan Gilbert
Blake Snell
Framber Valdez

I continue to be alone when it comes to Ian Anderson. I just don’t see the strikeout potential and would much rather have every other pitcher here. Shane Baz looks beyond good but innings hold him back from being in the top 20. Chris Bassitt has been great for a few seasons now and would be a great anchor for a risky rotation here. Give me all of the Logan Gilbert, no explanation is needed. Blake Snell and Framber Valdez are both looking to have rebound seasons and could easily be a steal based on their ADP.

Tenth Round:
Luis Severino
Sean Manaea
Zac Gallen
Adam Wainwright
Ranger Suarez
Justin Verlander
Clayton Kershaw
Luis Garcia

This will be the last round we will discuss and it’s quite the grouping! Luis Severino is coming off of Tommy John but he did get some innings in last season making him slightly more appealing than others like Justin Verlander. As I type this and the more I think about it this is a huge boom or bust grouping. Luis Severino, Zac Gallen, Justin Verlander, and Clayton Kershaw could all be league winners at this price. If any of them are healthy and any of them pitch to their potential you are gaining massive profit. So much that it could win you your league.

While it is obvious the pitching landscape really gives you two ways to draft your starters. One is to build early and take chances on pitchers later like Justin Verlander. The other is to take risks early like Jacob deGrom and take steady boring pitchers later like Chris Bassitt. It all comes down to preference and what makes you comfortable in terms of your playstyle. Either way, ADP is starting to take shape and these are the things we need to start thinking about.