What is different about the cutter? Scroll down to the bar chart below to see that it is in the zone the least of the three fastballs (four-seamer, sinker, cutter) analyzed in this series. In the zone the least, yet swung on the most. Heck, it’s even chased out of the zone by hitters the most. That’s the cutter. When executed correctly, it cuts in on a batter’s hands or it tails away from the barrel. How else does it compare to the four-seamer and sinker? In this article, we conclude the “Know Your Averages” series with a jammed hitter, a broken bat, and a sore palm.

Four-seamers | Sinkers | Cutters
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Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

Some general schedule notes:

• The only schedule quirk worth mentioning is that the Braves and Reds play a makeup game on Monday, September 9. That means that Cincinnati will play in four different cities in 10 days and will fly from New York to Atlanta and then to St. Louis from Sunday to Tuesday.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

Some general schedule notes:

• Ottoneu head-to-head playoffs begin next week which means every single start will matter all the more and hitting your games started cap is of utmost importance.
• The schedule is a pretty mixed bag next week. The only team with a pair of good or bad matchups is the Orioles who get the punchless White Sox and Rays at home. Even though they’re not double red above, it’s probably a good idea to fade starters from the Giants and Guardians since both the Royals and Diamondbacks have been among the hottest teams in baseball recently.
• With the Monday holiday, a number of teams have a Tuesday off day in the middle of a series. Teams may use that opportunity to reslot their rotations or give some of their younger starters some additional rest. Keep an eye out for any last-minute schedule changes.

When you have a pitch that can be thrown in the zone, induce weak contact, and get called strikes, you throw it and you throw it often. However, last season (2023) the sinker’s usage hit its lowest point within the Statcast era among starting pitchers, down to 13.9%. A slight resurgence this season has brought its usage up to 15.0%. Compared to a 22.8% usage in 2015, the start of the statcast era, the sinker no longer sits at the popular kid’s lunch table.

However, if we change the split to view the sinkers utilization by relievers, we see the resurgence started earlier and with a little more gusto:

Relievers have been doing crazy things with their sinkers when you look at the data. The obvious ones like throwing it faster with more movement are apparent, but throwing it in unusual locations seems to be a thing. While all those small changes are occurring, we can still rely on what is happening on average to help us make quick comparisons. For example, a swinging strike rate of 10% on a four-seam fastball is average. A 10% swinging strike rate on a sinker is really good. This post serves to help navigate benchmark statistics on the sinker.

Four-seamers | Sinkers | Cutters
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It’s been a little over a month since I’ve written up some under-rostered pitchers and the search for useful pitching is never ending. With Ottoneu playoffs starting in head-to-head leagues next week and stretch run for points leagues upon us, here are five starters who are rostered in under 60% of all Ottoneu leagues who could be nice pickups for the final month of the season. I’ve also tried to guess at these pitches potential opponents through the end of the season, provided their teams stay on schedule and no injuries occur. With so few days left to affect your position in the standings, every start can make a difference.

Frankie Montas joined the Brewers at the trade deadline and has made five solid starts for his new team. Milwaukee has had him continue to reemphasize his four-seam fastball in his pitch mix; he’s throwing that pitch over 40% of the time in August, a higher rate in any single month since May 2017. Maybe it’s because he’s throwing his heater harder than he has all season long, getting back up to the velocity he was enjoying a couple of years ago before his shoulder issues. The fastball has returned a 30.2% whiff rate this month and that solid foundation has helped the effectiveness of his entire repertoire. If his velocity sticks into September, he could be a nice addition to your fantasy team, particularly in the matchups against the Rockies and Giants.

With the Orioles dealing with a number of injuries to their starting rotation, Dean Kremer has stepped up with a string of three straight solid starts. He’s been increasing the usage of his brand-new splitter each month of the season and he’s now incorporating it into his pitch mix around a quarter of the time. Opposing batters are whiffing 34.2% of the time they offer at that offspeed pitch and are producing a .249 expected wOBA off of it. The rest of his arsenal is too inconsistent to be of note, and his schedule isn’t that favorable outside a pair of home starts against the Rays and Giants.

After undergoing Tommy John surgery last year, Matthew Boyd has made it back to the majors with the Guardians. He’s made three starts for Cleveland and has looked decent. As with any pitching rehabbing from a major surgery, there are bound to be hiccups along the way, but Boyd may still have the talent and coaching staff surrounding him to thrive. His fastball’s velocity is sitting right around where it was at his peak with the Tigers and it’s generating a whiff rate a hair under 30%. His secondary offerings aren’t getting the swings and misses yet, but when they click for him, he should enjoy some additional success. His starts against the Dodgers and Astros are pretty easy skips, but the other four games on his potential slate look like decent to good matchups.

You may not have noticed, but Osvaldo Bido has been on fire for the A’s during the second half of the season. Over his last three starts across 17 innings, he’s allowed just a single run. His four-seamer has been a fantastic weapon for him, generating both swings and misses and weak contact with plenty of ride at the top of the zone. His changeup and slider are both effective secondary offerings giving him a pretty deep repertoire. His batted ball profile leans pretty heavily towards fly balls and the one start he’s made on the road in a hitter friendly stadium ended up being a seven-run disaster in Anaheim. His xFIP as a starter is 4.20 which isn’t nearly as nice as his actual results. You can probably trust him in his cavernous home ballpark in Oakland, but he might be a risk to start on the road in places like Cincinnati.

It took a while for David Peterson to get his legs under him after starting the season on the Injured List as he rehabbed from his hip injury from last year. Since the beginning of July, spanning his last 10 starts, he’s posted a perfectly acceptable 3.82 FIP with a 4.17 xFIP. He’s been even better in August with those marks falling to 3.17 and 4.14, respectively. That his xFIP didn’t really budge despite seeing much improved actual results is a possible yellow flag. He’s also struggled with his command at times, a skill that was never his strong suit to begin with. He’s got a pretty generous schedule on the docket, however, and even if he regresses towards his xFIP, he should still be a useful starter down the stretch.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• The are a few teams who have scheduled doubleheaders next week — the Royals and Guardians and the Brewers and Reds. Kansas City has the most difficult schedule since they’ll be in the midst of a 12-day, 13-game stretch. Cleveland will likely need to call up two pitchers to cover for their doubleheader as they’re at the end of a long stretch of games without an off day.
• As far as easier matchups go, the Pirates have a pretty nice schedule against the Cubs and the Guardians. It’s also probable that Jared Jones will make his return from the IL next week and he’s lined up to get a pretty nice matchup against Chicago.
• A bunch of teams are facing a pair of tough opponents next week: the Braves, Dodgers, Orioles, and Phillies. Baltimore probably has the worst schedule as they travel to Los Angeles and Colorado with a beat up starting rotation — Corbin Burnes is the only pitcher I can recommend from their staff.

After a week hiatus, welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• The Brewers, Cubs, and Giants all have a pair of easier matchups next week. I like all of the starters on San Francisco since they’ll be playing at home and they’ve got a pretty solid rotation right now. Milwaukee plays in two very pitcher friendly stadiums, but I just don’t trust Frankie Montas or Aaron Civale all that much, even in these favorable matchups.
• On the other end of the spectrum, the Red Sox run into the Astros and red hot Diamondbacks next week and I’d avoid everyone in that rotation save for maybe Tanner Houck’s two starts, and I’d be weary of even starting him despite how good he’s pitched this year.

OK, this will probably be the last full ranking of the regular season because once we flip the calendar to September, it’s allll about what can you do for me right now. By then we can’t worry about tomorrow, everything is immediate focus only and playing hard to our standings.

I decided to rank ReyLo before he returns from injury because he’s making a rehab start tonight and expected back very soon, but if he doesn’t return, I still have Holmes ranked, too.

(Note: There won’t be a Wednesday SP Chart, but these rankings should definitely help your decisions for the day and I have my chat at 1 pm Central where you can ask any questions about the rankings!)

The $ is the earned auction value so far this year. Those with – in their Change column means they weren’t ranked last month due to injury or simply not being in the MLB rotation. ADP is the spring average draft position.

• Daily SP Chart archive
• July SP Rankings
• Preseason SP Rankings

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If you’ve been relying on a rookie starting pitcher, or even multiple, this season to earn you that coveted Yoo-Hoo shower, should you continue to trust them? Will they tire over the final month or suffer increased ratios as the league adapts? Let’s discuss a trio of rookie starting pitchers, how they have performed so far, and how we might expect them to perform the rest of the way.

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Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• There are a few schedule quirks next week: the Mets and Cardinals have a makeup game on Monday which means New York flies from Los Angeles to St. Louis for a single game and then head to Denver and Seattle to complete the road trip. That’s a pretty heavy schedule which could lead to some really tired bodies by the end of it. The other quirk is a scheduled doubleheader between the Twins and Guardians on Friday.
• Folks, we did it. We have the highest possible matchup score when the White Sox visit Oakland — that’s the worst offense over the last 14 days and on the road playing in the stadium with the best combination of overall run scoring and home run suppressing park factors. JP Sears, Ross Stripling, and Joey Estes are lined up to start in that series and they’re all pitching well enough to count on.
• The Padres, Twins, and Yankees all have a pair of easier matchups on the schedule while the Blue Jays and Phillies have a couple of tough series and the Rockies are at home for a six-game homestand.