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10/28/22

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REVIEWING PAUL’S SP RANKS

Paul Loves

• Carlos Rodón: Paul 7, Justin 19
• Hunter Greene: Paul 34, Justin 60
• Tyler Glasnow: Paul 33, Justin 59
• Luis Severino: 32, Justin 53
• José Suarez: Paul 65, Justin 97
• Jameson Taillon: Paul 59, Justin 107
• David Peterson: Paul 75, Justin 145

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• 2022 pVal Check-In #1.
• 2022 pVal Check-In #2.

How do you really know how well a pitcher’s fastball will perform before the season starts? You don’t. You basically just make an educated guess. Choosing good fastballs from the previous year seems to be a good way to go. But, choosing changeups that performed well in the past can bite you. While it may seem silly to get this micro, this niche, it can be a lot of fun to make picks before the season begins, and then forget about them. There’s no IL, no waiver claims, and no bench to ride. It’s just your preseason picks and the ever-rolling season and when it ends, you get to look back and either ask yourself, “What was I thinking?”, or, you get to puff your chest out and spend the winter months assuring yourself that you are a pVal prediction wizard. Pitching coaches should really be calling you when spring training kicks off again. Let’s take a look at where each of us FanGraphs contingent pVal competition participants finished out the 2022 season. As a reminder, here are all the picks you can make, provided to us by our friends at Pitcher List.

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I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP (since October 1st). Here are the previous editions:

• Eflin, Garrett, Carrasco, & Gore

Hayden Wesneski (302 ADP)

It looks like the 24-year-old righty isn’t going to be a secret like I hoped. He shoved in four starts with a 1.85 ERA (3.87 xFIP), 0.95 WHIP, 49% GB%, and 8.1 K/9. While he just threw 33 major league innings, he threw a combined 143 IP when his AAA numbers are included. Read the rest of this entry »

Last year, I picked the starting pitchers using an NFBC ADP of over 300. With no official ADP to go off of yet, I’m starting with pitchers taken after pick 300 from this draft.

Note: The Dodgers prospect Bobby Miller is on the list. I’m going to examine him at a later date once I can compile more prospect information. Read the rest of this entry »

Ottoneu arbitration is underway, and over coming weeks, I’ll be sharing some potential arbitration targets going position-by-position. If you are new to Ottoneu arbitration, check out this article from Brad Johnson a few years back – it is a collection of links to all you need to know about Ottoneu arbitration.
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During the all-star break, I once again polled you on which group of 10 starting pitchers would post a lower ERA during the second half, and which ERA range each group’s aggregate would fall into. Let’s now review the results.

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It’s time for the first rankings of 2023, but given how fresh we are off the regular season, I decided to go list only. I need a bit more time to put some commentary together and I know that this first run will change so much (even from now to the 2nd run) that spending 6-8 hours writing comments on everyone might be in vain at this juncture — and I’m not just talking about team changes, because those are inevitable part of offseason rankings. I look forward to the discussions in the comments and please feel free to make your case if you think someone absolutely deserves Top 150 consideration so they can be considered in the 2nd run that will come with commentary (due out in a month or so).

I did some loose tier breaks indicated by the red bars.

Edit 1 (Oct. 11th, 3:40 PM CT) — Cubs fans, I’m so sorry your guys all got knocked off the list somehow. Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele, Keegan Thompson, Hayden Wesneski, Drew Smyly, Kyle Hendricks, Adrian Sampson 샘슨 were all listed. Truly dumbfounded by one team getting merked somehow between yesterday & today. See, this is why I waited for commentary! Kenta Maeda was also a great inclusion who will be on the next list.

Edit 2 (Oct. 11th, 10:40 AM CT) — MacKenzie Gore and David Peterson were misses. They will be on the November list!

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Our pitching in MLB DFS isn’t just a source of fantasy points. The price tags on pitchers make it so they dictate the freedoms and restrictions of building our lineups. Before reading this article, it’s highly suggested that you read my article, “DFS Pitching Primer,” so the concepts discussed here make more sense.

That we’re not selecting the best players. We’re constructing the lineups which carry the most leverage without sacrificing many projected fantasy points.

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It’s like Dottie said, “Lay off the high ones.” But, it ain’t so easy. Just ask Kit. I feel like I’ve been seeing more swings and misses on pitches up and out of the zone. Here’s an example, courtesy of Pitching Ninja:

Dylan Cease, 97mph Elevated Fastball (ball) and 83mph Knuckle Curve (backwards K), individual pitches + overlay pic.twitter.com/VCCEvySYh5

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 9, 2022

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I’ve published a ton of posts highlighting new everyday players on the hitting side, but have ignored pitchers. So let’s now shift to rookie starting pitchers who have recently made their MLB debuts.

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