Yesterday, the Cubs officially signed Jameson Taillon to a four-year, $68 million contract, after agreeing to such a deal earlier in the month. In the never-ending debate over which style of pizza is better, Taillon will now have the chance to become an expert in Chicago’s signature deep dish version, after spending two years noshing on New York’s thin crust pizza. We all know which style he’ll deem superior, right? RIGHT? So how might the switch in home park affect his results? Let’s consult the park factors and find out.

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As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

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On Friday, the Giants signed left-hander Sean Manaea to a two-year, $25 million contract. Luckily for Manaea, he didn’t have to travel too far to find his new home, as he’ll remain in California. Incredibly, he has now played for three teams, all of which call California home. Coming off a mightily disappointing season that saw him post a career worst 4.96 ERA, will the park switch help fuel a rebound in 2023? Let’s consult the park factors to find out.

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I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP.

Here are the previous editions:

• Eflin, Garrett, Carrasco, & Gore
• Wesneski, Clevinger, Quantrill, & Steele
• Walker, Pérez, Manaea, & Bello
• Megill, Stripling, Jameson, & Civale
• Whitlock, Houck, Gray, & Maeda
• Peterson, Matz, Syndergaard, & Quintana
• Bradish, Wainwright, Soroka, & Ortiz
• Morris, Keller, Wood, & Suarez

Ken Waldichuk (372 ADP)

I wish 24-year-old lefty wasn’t on the 40-Win A’s. There is quite a bit to like about him but the other stats will almost certainly come with a low Win total.

He has a 94-mph four-seamer that he throws over half the time. It misses a decent number of bats (10% SwStr%) and generates a ton of popups (27% GB%). His slider (16% SwStr%) and change (14% SwStr%) also generate a decent number of swings-and-misses. In a short sample (46 pitches) his curve struggled (4% SwStr%). The comps on the pitch aren’t much better. Read the rest of this entry »

On Monday, it was reported that the Blue Jays signed Chris Bassitt to a three-year, $36 million contract. After spending one season with the Mets after the majority of his career with the Athletics, let’s consult the park factors to find out how the park switch might affect his performance.

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Last Friday, the Rangers signed Andrew Heaney to a two-year, $25 million contract. The oft-injured southpaw has called Los Angeles his home for the majority of his career, so how will the park switch affect his performance? Let’s consult the park factors.

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I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP. Here are the previous editions:

• Eflin, Garrett, Carrasco, & Gore
• Wesneski, Clevinger, Quantrill, & Steele
• Walker, Pérez, Manaea, & Bello
• Megill, Stripling, Jameson, & Civale
• Whitlock, Houck, Gray, & Maeda
• Peterson, Matz, Syndergaard, & Quintana
• Bradish, Wainwright, Soroka, & Ortiz

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Just three days after Jacob deGrom signed with the Rangers, it was reported that the Mets agreed to a two-year, $86.66 million contract with Justin Verlander. That’s a lot of money for a 40 and 41 year old pitcher! Ignoring his age and the possibility of performance decline, let’s consult the park factors to determine how the move from Minute Maid Park to Citi Field might affect his results.

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On Friday, Jacob deGrom signed a five year, lots of money contract with the Texas Rangers, where the smell of smoked meat wafts through the air. Let’s compare the park factors of his previous New York home, Citi Field, with his new Arlington home, Globe Life Field and find out how his performance might be affected, if all else was equal (which it never is). Since we don’t need to worry about the DH only existing in the AL anymore, it makes for a much easier comparison than in years past.

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I am almost all the way through my pitching projections and as I start to compare my projections versus ADP I am noticing guys that I think are nice values or guys that are extremely overrated early in draft season. Here are a few of the starting pitchers I have ranked well below where they are going versus other starters in terms of NFBC Draft Champions ADP.

Dylan Cease: My Rank 19, ADP: 6
I am not surprised to see Cease a lot lower in my ranks than in the ADP. He is coming off of a monster season, but there are clear red flags. First, for being an “elite” starter, he doesn’t have a great WHIP. I think this is one of the most overlooked categories in the game. Part of his issue with the WHIP is how much he walks guys and I worry about the fact he does not have great control and him relying so much on two pitches. He could easily repeat last season and I’ll look dumb, but if I am taking a pitcher as high as he is going, then I would prefer to not have the questions I did.

Spencer Strider: My Rank: 17, ADP: 8
This is another player that I could look really stupid by the end of 2023. Strider was one of the best pitchers in baseball if you look on a per inning basis. If he repeats with a higher inning total, he could easily be the #1 pitcher in fantasy. That being said, I struggle with his lack of track record and what his innings count will be. He threw 136.1 innings in 2022 if you include the playoffs and minors and while he could make a jump to 150 or 160 innings, but I have a hard time projecting that. I also worry about his true two-pitch mix. Guys like him can struggle when they don’t have the feel for a pitch and as hitters start to see him over time. He may move up in my projections over time, but even if he does, I can’t imagine he ends up on any of my teams this year.

Nick Lodolo: My Rank 69, ADP 38
This one hurts a little because I love Lodolo’s potential. He can strike out anyone and I the control and command are improving. However, I don’t love that he pitches in Cincinnati. It is a horrible park and the team is not going to be good at all. He is likely going to deliver a bad WHIP and wins will be hard to come by and while I love the upside, it is hard to take a guy that has potential to be just a two-category producer as a SP 3 or high end 4.

Dustin May: My Rank 93, ADP: 46
Who is Dustin May? That is the question I struggled with when doing his projections. I want to believe he is the dominant guy we saw in 2021 and that 2022 is largely a product of his health. That being said, I just can’t get past the injury issues. He only threw 51 innings between the Majors and minors and he didn’t even appear in the postseason. I can’t imagine he gets to 130+ innings which means his upside is limited even on a great Dodgers team.

Michael Kopech My Rank: 101, ADP: 69
I am surprised at this point that people are still drafting Kopech as highly as they are considering what we have seen from him. I think a lot of people are throwing out how he looked after hurting his knee in June, but I worry about his command and control and the huge dropoff in strikeout rate in 2022 which means he is a fifth starter with a bad WHIP. Finally, I worry he won’t be able to throw 140-150 innings. Maybe a return to health means he becomes the guy many believed (including me) he would eventually become, but I think there are too many people still drafting him based off of his name value from that prospect pedigree and not enough people looking at what has happened on the field. I could definitely find myself pushing him up my ranks in spring training if we see a completely healthy Kopech that looks great, but for right now, I can’t draft him at cost.