2023 Starting Pitcher Rankings – October
It’s time for the first rankings of 2023, but given how fresh we are off the regular season, I decided to go list only. I need a bit more time to put some commentary together and I know that this first run will change so much (even from now to the 2nd run) that spending 6-8 hours writing comments on everyone might be in vain at this juncture — and I’m not just talking about team changes, because those are inevitable part of offseason rankings. I look forward to the discussions in the comments and please feel free to make your case if you think someone absolutely deserves Top 150 consideration so they can be considered in the 2nd run that will come with commentary (due out in a month or so).
I did some loose tier breaks indicated by the red bars.
Edit 1 (Oct. 11th, 3:40 PM CT) — Cubs fans, I’m so sorry your guys all got knocked off the list somehow. Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele, Keegan Thompson, Hayden Wesneski, Drew Smyly, Kyle Hendricks, Adrian Sampson 샘슨 were all listed. Truly dumbfounded by one team getting merked somehow between yesterday & today. See, this is why I waited for commentary! Kenta Maeda was also a great inclusion who will be on the next list.
Edit 2 (Oct. 11th, 10:40 AM CT) — MacKenzie Gore and David Peterson were misses. They will be on the November list!
I will be making periodic edits to address things that come up from the comments. Please take a look at those before commenting to make sure your player/concern hasn’t already been addressed. They will be placed just above the list!
deGrom not in the top tier!?
I have some nerves about him. When I first started slotting, he was 1st! I moved him down as I do have legitimate worries about the continued injuries especially because he holds 2 of the biggest injury factors: heater in the upper-90s, slider in the 90s… the absolute worst pitches for your sustained health. Plus, it’s not like we’re waiting for the shoe to drop on his injury, they’ve been happening.
I won’t be surprised if he meanders back up the list, but I think his peak would be 6-7. His talent is 1000% unquestioned, but how many innings am I getting?
Really surprised not to see Justin Steele or Marcus Stroman on this list at all. Steele in particular had a great second half of the season and the Cubs are poised to spend some money on FAs that should give them both a few more shots at wins.
Those are just stonecold misses, no idea how they fell off the list. They were both 100% on it yesterday
Why did you publish the article if you didn’t have the correct list yet?
Kinda answered it in that reply, no? I didn’t realize they fell off the list as I was transferring. I didn’t just purposely skip the Cubs
why did you reply to a post w/o understanding it?
There is simply not a good defense for why deGrom is at #14. I’m sure Paul will give the standard song and dance about how he’s injury prone and whatnot. The key is that all of these pitchers are injury prone – it’s just an inherent aspect of being a SP. Rodon at #7 doesn’t make sense if you’re handicapping for excessive injury risk.
deGrom is far and away the best pitcher in the game and is currently healthy. You can’t go lower than top 5.
I regularly beat the drum on injury concerns being pitching-wide and how no one is truly safe. That said, deGrom’s arsenal also contains the 2 biggest injury risk pitches w/his heater & slider. I’m just not sure what kind of IP count we’re going to get w/him. As I mentioned in the other comment about him, he was #1 initially, but I thought I was ignoring his risk too much. Maybe I overcorrected at 14, but I don’t think it’s outlandish to carry major concerns about his workload going forward. Every pitcher has injury risk, but some have higher risk than others & deGrom absolutely falls in that camp
For what my opinion is worth Paul, # 14 on DeGrom is higher than I would want to go. He has averaged about 78 IP the last two seasons. He is elite when he is on the field, but that isn’t often enough. I have no problem with your ranking given the injury history and the future risks you stated.
One missing name that might be an oversight: Maeda?
Couple names I thought might be higher:
Also, my boy Luis Ortiz is gonna see his price go through the roof during draft season. I believe Eno had him #1 in Stuff+ (although he hadn’t met the pitch count to qualify).
Maeda def missing, will be added.
Another commenter mentioned Steele & Stroman… all of my Cubs randomly fell off the list somehow between yesterday & today
I put some age decline on Scherzer but I think he’s one of those unicorns who will remain good when pitching thought we probably aren’t getting >175 ever again. Don’t be surprised if he trickles back upward.
Definitely sold Gray short. That ranking is well below his 2022 SP ranking (65) so if he stays healthy & pitches like he did this yr, he’s a top 50!
Yeah Disco just kinda drifted down the list. Didn’t get the attention he deserves. Injury risk is heightened w/him compared to the average pitcher, but his talent is still better than this ranking. He will remain outside the Top 100, though, as that HR issue returned in a big way and scares me a bit.
I’ve been hearing the Eno-infused Ortiz hype! Stroooong chance he moves up from the 107 I have him right now.
Fantastic! One guy I think that is missing: Jose Suarez.
66!
zoinks
I’m an AL-only player, so I’ll just comment on a couple AL guys.
George Kirby looks about 25 spots too low to me. He throws fairly hard, has a lot pitches, showed the ability to change his pitch mix mid-season in response to MLB coaching, seems like there are no injury flags or durability concerns really. His wOBA, i.e. how he performed on a per batter basis, during 2022 was strong. You might reconsider his ranking.
I’m also higher on Framber Valdez, but there seems to be my idiosyncratic take. He led the AL in IP and has a great team environment. He was gaining velocity during the year. The really high GB% establishes a fairly high floor for his 2023 value.
I really like Kirby, but I think I was cautious not to overrank him based on the rookie campaign. Perhaps I was too cautious! I could see some sophomore give back w/his modest SwStr rate, but I can’t rule out improvement, either. He’ll get in the top 50 for sure, 52 was too low.
Valdez was an interesting for me. I initially thought he was AL’s Sandy Alcantara, but I don’t think he’s quiiiite there yet. Rather, I landed on him being AL’s Max Fried, which is still great! High floor, tons of innings, and a great team context. Given that this insane season only landed him 24th among SPs, I’m not sure I can rank much higher than this as it would likely take growth on this level
Was Mackenzie Gore an oversight? For me he’d be planted somewhere near Ashby, Clevinger, et al.
100%! Y’all are my net catching the names I missed and I really appreciate it. Maeda & Gore plus the Cubs guys randomly falling off the list somehow.
I really like Matz for a bounce back
Paul, I love your early rankings but I want to lobby for David Peterson’s inclusion on this list! 126 is in 105.1 innings with a sub 4 era and a pretty good chance at being a rotation member on a Mets team that just won 100 games and is potentially losing Degrom Bassit and/or Walker! Showalter also let him go 100+ pitches in 3 of 4 starts in July-August when he was in the rotation! Tell me why this isn’t a top 150 pitcher ( or top 125)???
100% miss, consider him added!
(he’ll be added to the November, btw, not updated into this one)
How is Bello below guys like Hall and Jameson? Performed better than Hall in more starts and has a much better track record than Dray. Is it a lack of opportunity thing in Boston?
It’s obvious how much time and thought you pour in to these lists. It’s really appreciated.
Does the inclusion of Grayson Rodriguez and not Espino or Eury Perez mean you expect Rodriguez to get substantially more major league innings, adjust to the majors substantially better, both, neither?
I’d assume it’s because, barring any setbacks, Grayson will break camp with the Orioles.
With respect, I think Kershaw is too low. Even with the innings deficiency, his 7.2 fWAR was 17th among pitchers in 2021-22. Over this same period (minimum 240 innings), he was fourth in WHIP (0.98), fifth in FIP (2.78), sixth in K-BB (24.2%) and SIERA (3.04), and 14th in ERA (2.90). As a result, he beat 12 of the 16 guys ahead of him on the WAR leaderboard on a per-inning basis. And even though he tops out at 92 and change, he was also fourth in SwStr (15.3%). I just wish he could get back up to 165 or so innings per year.
Worried about Cease’s walks?
No Garrett Whitlock? All indications are that the Sox will try him out in the rotation next year. Pretty sure Houck is going to stay in the bullpen too.
I’ll switch ’em! I wasn’t 100% sure which way they were going on either but if Whit’s in & Houck’s out, I’ll make the move!
The Red Sox have not come out and said it, but I am pretty confidant that is what their respective roles will be. Whitlock was yo-yo’d between the rotation and the pen because the Sox pen was just so bad.
The thing about deGrom is that even if he only gives you 120 innings, those innings could be so valuable on a rate basis that he’s worth including in the top tier.
120 innings of a 2.00 ERA, 14.0 K/9, 0.75 WHIP (roughly his 2020-2022 performance level) can be paired with streaming waiver guys at 4.50 / 8.0 / 1.25 to create a 200 IP SP at 3.00 ERA, 11.6 K/9, 0.95 WHIP. That’s basically Gerrit Cole.
Also, there isn’t any indication that deGrom’s underlying skills (when on the mound) took a step back in 2022, despite the higher ERA. Velo and CSW% basically unchanged from 2021.
His SIERA over 2021-2022 is 1.68. Next best (min. 150 IP) is Burnes at 2.77.
Kutter Crawford? Definitely fringe but had some nice success before struggling into an injury.
Does this list assume Adam Wainwright retires?
Yes, indeed. I will be waiting to hear news on that before adding him
Perhaps its recency bias, but Luzardo seems low to me.
Hi Paul,
Thanks for putting together SP ranks in October and subjecting yourself to the firing squad!!!
Couldn’t agree more on Degrom, especially as he will be 35 next yr. Also don’t love seeing pitchers clocking in at 102mph. No quicker way to blow out your arm then going all in on your pitches.
If Luzardo, May and Flaherty are still in the 60’s come March they will be on most if not all my teams.
What am I missing on Stripling? 3 ERA and a 1 WHIP put him much higher than 122.
I am interested to see how your ranking change when you incorporate the elimination of the shift. I am planning to avoid Luis Castillo and many other GB pitchers because I think the rule changes will reduce their value. I am also planning to focus on certain pitchers.
Do you plan to adjust rankings because of this?
Is there news about Jake Odorizzi that I missed? Have to assume he gets a rotation job right? As a Nationals fan, I’d take him over Patrick Has-been!
Glad to see you included both Luis Ortiz and Johan Oviedo on this list in spite of the small sample sizes. With the improvements Mitch Keller made and Roansy Contreras just pitching more innings, I think both will end next year in your top 50. The Pirates may be bad again next year but that starting rotation is going to be deceptively good.
Is Ryu Hyun-Jin a person of the past?
Have you noticed the Charlie Morton home/ away split? Magnitudes better at home this year, ranking probably feels right but requires more management and makes two start weeks that are split home/ away harder to digest.
No love for Tyler Anderson? Yeah, his history was not pretty, and his Ks are nothing to write home about, but he obviously changed his pitch usage in LA and the results seemed consistent and appear repeatable. I mean, the guy had the 10th best ERA and 11th best WHIP in baseball last year. That is 80th?
I could see myself moving him up if he stays with the Dodgers. Not saying he can’t keep that beautiful changeup they’ve unlocked if he were to leave, but obviously I just prefer him to remain with one of the best orgs in the game.
If Verlander is #5, Scherzer at #17 doesn’t make sense to me. IMO they’re very similar talent wise and Scherzer is 1.5 years younger. He battled some injuries last year but has otherwise been about the most durable pitcher in the league. He was already back, healthy at the end of the year, don’t think it should be much of a concern going into 2023.
Some names I did not see, that may be top 150
S. Alcantara L. Castillo CC. Javier J. Luzardo N. Lodolo K. Maeda M. Gore M. Kopech D. Jameson T. Anderson M. Stroman J. Berrios B. Ober J. Quintana D. Smyly J. Steele S. Sanchez H. Wesneski D. Peterson L. Patino S. Matz A. Wainwright K. Hendricks W. Miley N. Syndergaard C.Cavalli A. Alzolay A. Sampson
Ed Skeehan
Alcantara #6
Castillo #13
Javier #27
Luzardo #62
So on and so forth.
Ugh. I’m not drafting a SP until the 12th round next season. Practically interchangeable group after the top 25
I see he is 150th, but I’m surprised Corbin is on this list. He has been just about the worst pitcher in baseball since the 2019 World Series. Moreover, Strassburg not on the list is a bit surprising. I know he has been extremely hurt, but he could return and he is Strassburg. I think he deserves Corbin’s spot near the bottom of the list.