Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 10.

Kyle Drabek – In his first three starts, Drabek allowed just 4 ER in 18.2 IP for a 1.93 ERA. Since then, he’s allowed 29 ER in 44.2 IP for a 5.84 ERA. In that span, he’s allowed more walks (34) than strikeouts (26) and sports an ugly 1.858 WHIP. Walks are just killing him, as Drabek has a 6.39 BB/9, the worst mark among 115 qualified pitchers and over a full walk worse than the next worst pitcher (Jonathan Sanchez 5.19). Give him a spot on the bench until he gets his walk rate under control.

Ubaldo Jimenez – Three weeks ago, I had Jimenez as a sit and told you to wait until he showed something more. In his last outing he had a four-hit shutout with no walks and seven strikeouts – I think that counts. In his last four starts, covering 30 IP, he’s allowed just eight walks. In the four previous starts, he allowed 19 BB in 18.2 IP. Jimenez faces the Padres and Dodgers this week, the bottom two teams in the National League in runs per game. If you were holding him out, now is definitely the time to get him back in your lineup.

Felipe Paulino – Liberated from the Rockies bullpen, Paulino is back to starting with the Royals. In two starts with Kansas City, he’s pitched 9.1 scoreless innings with 0 BB and 7 Ks. Paulino is a strikeout pitcher who gets lots of groundballs. But the few fly balls he allowed seemingly all left the park in Colorado. He had a 7.36 ERA with the Rockies but a 3.41 xFIP. Available on the waiver wire in most leagues, Paulino is an excellent streaming option this week with his two starts and potentially much more than that.

Joel Pineiro – The switch to more two-seamers back in 2009 turned Pineiro into a pitcher who gets lots of ground balls but few strikeouts. So, he’s really a three-category pitcher at best. But when he’s right, he should deliver numbers in all three remaining categories. Pineiro has scuffled recently but he does have two home starts this week, including one against the Rays, who struggle versus lefties. Against LH starters this year, Tampa has a .652 OPS, the third-worst mark in the American League. Owners have not embraced Pineiro since he came off the DL but this looks like a week where he could contribute.

Josh Tomlin – He is tied for the American League lead with 7 wins and is fifth with a 0.949 WHIP, meaning Tomlin has made owners who picked him up off the waiver wire very happy. But in his past two starts, Tomlin has allowed 10 ER in 12 IP and allowed 3 HR. This week he squares off against the Yankees who lead the AL in both runs per game (5.24) and HR (83 in 54 games) by a wide margin. Tomlin’s start is in the Bronx, where the Yankees have hit 47 HR in 30 games. His other start is against the Twins, who have had trouble scoring runs overall this year but have tallied five or more runs in five of their past seven games. Give Tomlin the week off.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 10 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lincecum, Lee, Price, Hanson, Lester, Marcum, Greinke, Oswalt, Scherzer, Gonzalez, J. Sanchez, D. Hudson, C. Lewis, Morrow, Zimmermann, Lilly, Correia, Stauffer, Baker, Matusz, Myers, Porcello, Danks, Harrison, Garcia, Westbrook, Richard, Vazquez, Capuano, Leake, Garland, Lannan, Mortensen, Moscoso, Swarzak, Davis, O’Sullivan, Lopez, Reineke.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 8 pitchers and how they fared.

Arroyo – Advised to sit. 2 Ks, 22.24 ERA, 3.706 WHIP, 5.2 IP, 14 ER
Chacin – Advised to start. 11 Ks, 6.23 ERA, 1.154 WHIP, 13 IP, 9 ER
de la Rosa – Advised to start. 3 Ks, 7.71 ERA, 2.143 WHIP, 2.1 IP, 2 ER
Hellickson – Advised to start. W, 10 Ks, 1.35 ERA, 0.975 WHIP, 13 IP, 2 ER
Niese – Advised to start. W, 11 Ks, 1.59 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 11.3 IP, 2 ER

Jon Lester has been one of the most consistently excellent starting pitchers over the past three seasons, posting ERAs in a narrow range between 3.21 and 3.41. In April of this season, he opened the first month in typical fashion, posting a 2.52 ERA. However, May has been a completely different story as his ERA has shot up to 3.94 after an uncharacteristic 5.50 ERA during the month. Though he made two starts in which he only allowed a run in one and shut out his opponent in the other, he has allowed four runs, five runs twice, and seven runs in his other May starts. Do fantasy owners have any reason to worry?

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In today’s version of NL Starting Pitchers, I tell you about a pitcher I like, a pitcher I don’t, and a pitcher I’m skeptical of.

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It is time for some more deep league fun. While injuries in mixed leagues do not usually lead to new sources of significant value, it is actually a huge supplier of value in Only leagues. Which is why sometimes I wish I was playing in an Only league this year so I could have an excuse to analyze such players as in the post title. But then I remember how much more your team gets killed when your guy is the one who goes down and I don’t miss playing in Only leagues any more. For those poor souls dealing with a smattering of strained obliques, quads and hamstrings, I have one option for ya. And the others in need of pitching help, I am here for you as well.

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Here is the latest update to Week 9 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: A. Sanchez, Hammel, Duensing, Guthrie, Lyles, Cobb

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Happ, Sonnanstine.

Let’s take a look at Jordan Lyles, the top pitching prospect for the Houston Astros, who will make his major league debut this week.

The Astros selected Lyles as a supplemental first-round pick in 2008, awarded for the loss to free agency for pitcher Trever Miller. Lyles has risen quickly through the organization. Last year he skipped Hi-A, as the Astros thought he could handle the jump, plus they were not eager to have him pitch in the hitter-friendly environment of Lancaster.

He excelled in Double-A, where he had an 8.15 K/9 as a 19-year old. Lyles had a late promotion to Triple-A, where he got knocked around in six starts. He began this season back in Triple-A, although this time in a different city, as Houston’s top minor league franchise is now Oklahoma City, rather than Round Rock.

In 10 starts this year in Triple-A, Lyles is 3-3 with a 3.20 ERA. After posting a 1.86 WHIP in his first exposure to Triple-A, Lyles has a 1.24 mark so far this season. In his last three starts for the RedHawks, Lyles was 2-1 with a 1.31 ERA. In 20.2 IP, he allowed 0 HR and just 2 BB and fanned 10 batters.

Lyles is not overpowering but he has a deep repertoire and he throws strikes. It’s always impressive when a pitcher makes it to the majors at age 20. But you have to wonder if he is mentally ready to take on major league hitters and if Lyles will trust his stuff enough to thrive.

The matchups are not overly favorable for Lyles, either. He has two road starts and has to go up against Carlos Zambrano and Mat Latos. The tendency among fantasy players is to gobble up rookies when they get called to the majors, hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. Without dominating stuff, Lyles seems unlikely to be a fantasy stud in his first exposure to MLB.

Last week we looked at Carlos Villanueva. In his two starts, Villanueva picked up a win with a strong outing against the Yankees, where he allowed just two hits and one earned run in five innings. But his second start was a disaster, as he gave up 5 ER in 5 IP and was fortunate to come away with a no-decision.

In today’s Waiver Wire we discuss two players who have shown great production of late. Thanks to reputations — one the player’s and the other the manager’s — they are owned in fewer than 10% of leagues.

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Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 9.

Erik Bedard – After losing his first four decisions, Bedard has quietly put up some monster numbers in his last five starts. In that span, he’s 3-0 with a 1.09 ERA with 28 Ks and 7 BB in 33 IP. While his curveball may not be the unhittable pitch it was back in his pre-injured heyday, he still has an impressive 30.1 O-Swing%. Bedard has a deep repertoire and throws all of his pitches for strikes. He has two home starts this week against East Coast teams. It all adds up to a must-start week.

Madison Bumgarner – Each pitching staff has the guy that seemingly gets no run support and Bumgarner fills that role on the Giants. The offense has provided him with an average run support of 2.27 in his 10 starts, which explains how in his last six games, all Quality Starts, Bumgarner is 1-3. If he can’t get wins when he’s pitching well, what happens if he falters? This week he goes up against two pitchers with a combined 11-4 record this year. And with the Giants now without their cleanup hitter, it seems like a good time to sit the unlucky youngster.

Fausto Carmona – If you look at the WHIP leaders, you’ll see a nice collection of the game’s top pitchers and this year’s success stories. You’ll also find Carmona. So far this season, Carmona is 3-5 with a 4.73 ERA. And this is with a 1.18 WHIP. The last three starts have not been kind, as he has allowed 16 ER in 20.2 IP, thanks in part to 4 HR allowed. This week he goes up against Toronto and Texas, two of the better HR-hitting clubs in the AL. And his start against the Blue Jays is in Toronto, where the Jays have hit 30 HR in 23 games. Keep Carmona on your bench this week.

Charlie Morton – If you haven’t already read it, check out Cameron’s piece on Morton. Basically, Morton has revamped his approach and is now death on RHB. Some in the comments section even compared him to Doc Halladay. I don’t trust pitchers with BB/9 over 4 and Morton’s currently sits at 4.21 BB/9 after nine starts. This week he goes up against the Mets and Phillies, two teams that can easily put five LHB into their lineups. This seems like a week for the wheels to come off the Morton bandwagon so give him a spot on the bench if you can.

Ervin Santana – Everyone seems to be down on Santana because he’s not the pitcher he was in 2008. But the reality is he’s still a pretty good pitcher. The stat that jumps off the page is his 3.59 K/BB ratio, which goes a long way in explaining how both his FIP (3.41) and xFIP (3.52) are lower than his ERA (3.95). In his last two starts, Santana is 2-0 and in 15 IP he’s allowed just 1 ER with 2 BB and 13 Ks. This week he goes up against the Royals and Yankees, two teams struggling after hot starts. Get Santana active this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 9 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Halladay, Lester, Cahill, Billingsley, Kennedy, Wilson, Carpenter, Colon, McClellan, Latos, Arrieta, Vogelsong, T. Hudson, Harang, Davis, Wood, Narveson, Marquis, Holland, McDonald, Penny, Blackburn, Happ, Hochevar, Dickey, Fister, Gee, Francis, L. Hernandez, Saunders, Volstad, Talbot, Sonnanstine, A. Rodriguez, J. Reyes.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 7 pitchers and how they fared.

Garland – Advised to start. 3 Ks, 8.38 ERA, 2.379 WHIP, 9.2 IP, 9 ER
Garza – Advised to start. 3 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 6 IP, 0 ER
Jimenez – Advised to sit. 11 Ks, 3.00 ERA, 1.067 WHIP, 15 IP, 5 ER
Porcello – Advised to start. W, 3 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.375 WHIP, 8 IP, 0 ER
Volquez – Advised to sit. 12 Ks, 9.35 ERA, 1.731 WHIP, 8.2 IP, 9 ER

To close out our series of looks at the values of players in ottoneu Pick Six, we look today at pitchers.  As before, the numbers below are based on weighted averages of THT’s Oliver and BPro’s PECOTA (more weight to Oliver b/c it includes this season’s data).  The numbers are FP (FanGraphs Points per IP), though keep in mind that for starters this number is divided by four to keep starters from being the only thing that matters in pick six.

Starting Pitchers

Elite Five (they cost a fortune, but they’re worth it)

Tim Lincecum, 5.33 FP/IP, $48
Josh Johnson, 5.21 FP/IP, $38
Felix Hernandez, 5.04 FP/IP, $49
Cliff Lee, 5.04 FP/IP, $43
Roy Halladay, 5.01 FP/IP, $52

Johnson’s injury risk has kept his value down in traditional ottoneu, but when he’s healthy (currently has shoulder ouchie), he’s the best value of this group.  But you can’t go wrong here: more than any other pitchers in baseball, these guys should give you lots of productive innings per start.

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On the surface, Scott Baker is having his typical season. With a 4.12 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP, compared to his career marks of 4.31 and 1.28, respectively, he has performed pretty much in line with expectations. However, looking under the hood there is much more that we discover. Will these hidden treasures lead to his second breakout after his first breakout season in 2008?

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Every year a dozen or so MLB pitchers need to have TJS (Tommy John surgery) done on their elbows. Today I will look at 3 of those pitchers (Joe Nathan, Jordan Zimmermann and Edinson Volquez) that had the surgery in 2009 or 2010 with 2011 being their first full season back. Also, I will look at some general TJS information and how it applies to the 3 pitchers.

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