Archive for Starting Pitchers

This is part of an ongoing pro/con series on RotoGraphs over the next couple of weeks. Today we’ll look at the positive/negative side of Ryan Dempster. Expect the opposite side shortly.

It would be easy to look at Ryan Dempster’s 5.48 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, his solid work the previous three seasons, and conclude that one should be bullish on his prospects moving forward. After all, his BABIP is an inflated .320, his HR/FB ratio is a career high 15.5% and his LOB% is well below the league average. But that would be too easy and I like challenges.

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Here is the latest update to Week 11 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: Cahill, Jakubauskas

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Britton, Outman.

Let’s take a look at Trevor Cahill. Last year Cahill was an 18-game winner thanks in large part to having a .236 BABIP, the lowest mark among qualified starters. Cahill’s xFIP (3.99) was a full run higher than his ERA (2.97) and his FIP (4.19) was even higher. With an unimpressive strikeout rate of 5.40 K/9, many were calling for Cahill to be one of 2011’s biggest disappointments.

But after a start to 2011 that rivaled what he did last season, Cahill has hit hard times. He started the year 6-0 with a 1.72 ERA. Since then he’s 0-4 with a 5.35 ERA. His control has left him, as he’s allowed 18 BB in 35.1 IP in that span. Also he’s run into trouble with the gopher ball, having permitted 6 HR in that stretch. And even his hit rate has taken it on the chin, as he has a .324 BABIP.

Overall, Cahill’s xFIP is better this year (3.49) than it was in 2010 (3.99). But you won’t find any fantasy owner as enthusiastic about Cahill as his owners were in 2010. The good news for Cahill this week is that he has two home starts. While he has a 4.18 ERA in eight road starts, Cahill sports a 2.01 mark in six games at McAfee Coliseum.

But even at home, he’s allowed 14 hits in his last 13.2 IP. Cahill is scuffling all the way around right now.

Last week we looked at Tyler Chatwood. His two starts this week ended with 10.2 IP, 9 ER, 10 Ks and a 1.688 WHIP.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 11.

Bronson Arroyo – A 17-game winner a year ago, Arroyo has struggled through most of 2011. Nowhere has he struggled more than with the gopher ball, as Arroyo has allowed 16 HR in 75 IP. Eleven of those have come in his home park and this week the Reds host Jose Bautista and the Toronto Blue Jays. Arroyo has a road start in Dodger Stadium, where in six games lifetime he is 1-3 with a 4.85 ERA. Leave him on the bench this week if you have the depth.

Zach Britton – One of the top rookie pitchers, Britton has held his own pitching in the AL East. He’s been a little lucky with his BABIP (.260) and strand rate (75.7%) but has been a solid pitcher, with a 3.88 xFIP. However, Britton has a large L/R split, as the southpaw has held LHB to a .556 OPS this season. This week he has two road starts (4.94 road ERA so far this year) and he goes up against the Blue Jays, who lead the AL with an .880 OPS against LH starters and the Nationals, who are last in the NL with a .613 OPS against LH starters. Washington is missing Ryan Zimmerman versus lefties but Mike Morse is starting to hit and Jayson Werth has been better over his last three weeks (faint praise). Hold out Britton this week if you have other options.

Josh Collmenter – A 15th round draft pick in 2007, Collmenter is one of the top surprise stories of the year. He is 4-1 with a 1.12 ERA and fantasy owners have been snapping him off the waiver wire the past four weeks. Collmenter basically throws just two pitches and one of them is an 86.7 mph fastball. He succeeds thanks to an unusual delivery and pinpoint control. At some point it seems logical that hitters will adjust to his delivery. But this week he has two home starts and goes up against an AL team and the Giants, against whom he has thrown only two innings. Ride Collmenter in your lineup for another week.

Justin Masterson – It looked like Masterson turned the corner at the beginning of the season, as he began with a 5-0 record with a 2.11 ERA. But in his last six outings, he’s 0-4 with a 4.43 ERA, despite allowing just 2 HR in 40.2 IP. Masterson has done a fine job limiting HR this year and has improved his walks, going from a 3.65 BB/9 in 2010 to a 2.77 mark this year. But he still struggles against LHB (.794 OPS) and his 6.26 K/9 is a career low. The matchups seem okay on the surface, but both the Pirates and Tigers are better than they were a year ago. Sit Masterson if you can.

Carl Pavano – After posting a 6.64 ERA in his first seven games, Pavano has bounced back nicely in his last six outings. He’s posted a 2.49 ERA in that span and has allowed just 2 HR in 43.1 IP. Pavano has two home starts this week and at Target Field he has a 3.06 ERA, a full 2.5 runs lower than his road mark. Additionally, Pavano has allowed just 1 HR at home this year, compared to six in road parks. Make sure Pavano is in your linep this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 11 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Verlander, Gallardo, Sabathia, Hamels, Jurrjens, Cain, J. Garcia, Shields, Ogando, Haren, Nolasco, Burnett, Floyd, Kuroda, Lowe, Norris, Dempster, Wolf, Niese, Vargas, W. Rodriguez, Villanueva, Carrasco, Pelfrey, Duffy, Maholm, Moseley, Wells, Duke, Karstens, Wakefield, Coke, Cobb, Volstad, Outman, Cook, Maya

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 7 pitchers and how they fared.

Bedard – Advised to start. 14 Ks, 3.38 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 13.1 IP, 5 ER
Bumgarner – Advised to sit. W, 11 Ks, 1.929 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 14 IP, 3 ER
Carmona – Advised to sit. 5 Ks, 9.58 ERA, 1.839 WHIP, 10.1 IP, 11 ER
Morton – Advised to sit. W, 9 Ks, 2.08 ERA, 1.462 WHIP, 13 IP, 3 ER
Santana – Advised to start. 8 Ks, 6.23 ERA, 1.615 ERA, 13 IP, 9 ER

Cole Hamels carved up the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday night. The lefty punched out nine batters and walked none in eight shutout innings, lowering his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) to 2.31 in the process. Even considering the lower run-scoring environment in baseball right now, Hamels is in the midst of his best season in the majors. His FIP is 38 percent better than the league average in 2011 (68 FIP-), which ranks second only to teammate Roy Halladay among qualified starting pitchers.

The already-elite Hamels has raised his game to a new level this year by keeping the ball on the ground more often. That, in turn, has significantly cut his home run rate and limited other types of extra base-hits for the opposition.

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Wow, more than two months into the season and pitchers are clearly giving the finger to those who labeled 2010 the Year of the Pitcher. “You thought last year was the Year of the Pitcher? Wait until you see what we have in store for 2011!” It only makes fantasy owners whose teams have posted poor ERAs that much more annoyed. Anyway, on to the updates.

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Today’s look at NL Starting Pitchers is nutrient dense.

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After picking six for over 20 days straight, I’ve won one day. One stinking Bobby Valentine. Perhaps I’m not the best person to turn to for strategy in this particular game. I’ll offer it up anyway.

Mimicking my general fantasy strategy, I’ve been pushing money away from pitching. There are so many good matchups every day, why not find a good, cheap pitcher against a terrible offense? Last night, I chose a $17.75 Shaun Marcum (at home against New York), but that’s about the most expensive I’ll go for a starter. I was severely tempted by a $10.75 Daniel Hudson in Pittsburgh, and even Jonathan Sanchez at home against the Nationals made sense at $6.25 (or his opponent, the $3.50 Jordan Zimmermann). Don’t spend on starting.

If you are not going to spend on starting, there’s really no reason to spend on relieving. If a starter is no guarantee to perform on any given night, at least he’s guaranteed to show up and, you know, play. The ottoneu Dark Lord Niv Shah was kind enough to give me the points per position in the Pick Six game so far. Clearly, relievers are the red-headed step-children of the game.

After all that blabbing about not paying for pitching, it might be surprising to see that starting pitchers have the best number in this table. But the point wasn’t that pitchers are not worth spending money on, the point was that there were plenty of bargains. Niv is nothing if not eminently bug-able – he graciously gave me the points per dollar spent for each position.

Ah-hah. So, even just by groping my way through the dark with intuition instead of the numbers in front of me, it looks like I stumbled onto a viable strategy. Spend where you get the most return for your dollar: non-catcher offense.

Oh, and while you are at it, join a group! Now Pick Six has groups so that you attract like-minded players easily. Oh, and with groups you might be able to put a little friendly gummy-bear wager on the thing. If you like gummy bears or whatever. I’m in #PraiseBeltran and I started RotoGraphRegulars. Pimp your group here if you want others to join in!

This is an exciting time of the year for deep league owners as prospects are being called up, slow starters are getting released and playing time opportunities are opening up. No longer do deep leaguers have to choose between fifth outfielders and sixth starters currently pitching in long relief.

Felipe Paulino, KC SP | 6% Owned

If you had read my stuff last year on FantasyPros911 or listened to my weekly radio show, you would be well aware that I loved Paulino last year. He was coming off a decent 4.04 xFIP, but that compared to a ghastly 6.27 ERA, which likely scared off most fantasy owners and made him very cheap at draft time. He posted an excellent strike out rate, backed up by a fastball that averaged 95.4 miles per hour and generated an impressive 11.6% SwStk%. Unfortunately, 2010 did not go so well as his control regressed, the poor luck of 2009 continued through the season, and he dealt with shoulder issues that landed him on the DL. Now he has moved on to the Royals and has a second chance at a starting gig after opening the season in relief with the Rockies. His velocity remains in the 95.0 mile per hour range and he has produced fantastic results with his slider once again. This is the type of arm worth taking a chance on in AL-Only leagues. At the very least he should provide some nice strikeout numbers.

Jeff Keppinger, HOU 2B | 7% Owned

The release of Bill Hall has opened the door for Keppinger to receive full-time at-bats . While never producing much power or showing much speed, he is one of the best contact hitters in baseball. In his career, he has walked more than he has struck out, and only a below league average BABIP of .289 has prevented him from being a perennial .300 hitter. Obviously, he does not have great upside or anything, but his skills remind me of a mini-Placido Polanco. A couple of homers and steals here and there, but the value comes with the playing time and the batting average. Though this does not play very well in mixed leagues, he is a good choice to fill a hole that should cost little in deeper leagues. Finding a player in deeper leaguers that won’t kill your average is difficult, especially in the current environment where BABIP and batting average are down for the league. Luckily, Keppinger is here to save the day.

Here is the latest update to Week 10 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: F. Hernandez, Pineda, Garza, Liriano, Volquez, Chatwood and R. de la Rosa.

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Pineiro, Garland, Swarzak, O’Sullivan, Lopez and Reineke.

Let’s take a look at Tyler Chatwood. A second-round pick of the Angels in the 2008 Draft, Chatwood played at three different levels in 2010 and he posted a combined 2.84 ERA in 155.1 innings pitched. Chatwood started 2011 in Triple-A but was called up after just one appearance with Salt Lake.

The 21-year old held his own in his first five starts in the majors, winning two of his three decisions albeit with a 4.90 ERA. But in his last six games, Chatwood has turned it up, as he’s posted a 2.68 ERA over his last 37 IP. While he allowed 17 BB in that span, he’s done a good job of keeping the ball in the park, as he’s allowed just 1 HR over his last six starts.

Chatwood’s main issue is that he’s not striking many batters out. With a 4.06 K/9, Chatwood ranks 114th out of 117 qualified pitchers. With an average fastball velocity of 93.1, one would expect Chatwood to strike out more batters but he does not have a pitch to put batters away. His SwStr% is just 4.3 percent and neither his curve ball nor change is a strikeout pitch. In the minors his curve was thought to be a potential weapon but in the majors so far it has been a below-average pitch.

It’s theoretically possible to thrive with a strikeout rate that low, but you’ve got to really cut down on walks and Chatwood has a 4.76 BB/9. He has a below-average BABIP and an elevated LOB%, which explains his 4.72 FIP and 5.00 xFIP compared to his 3.64 ERA.

While his immediate fantasy prospects are not overwhelming, Chatwood is still an intriguing arm. He gets ground balls (44%), throws hard enough and keeps the ball in the park – a nice package from a pitcher this young.

Last week we looked at Jordan Lyles. The rookie had a strong debut as he allowed just two runs in seven innings against the Cubs. But Sunday he was knocked around by the Padres, as he allowed 4 ER in 4 IP and took the loss.

It has been nearly a month since I first took a look at the differential between starting pitchers’ ERA and xFIP. With two months now in the books, it is time for an update. From message board posts and various articles, it seems that many fantasy owners wait until June to really analyze their team and look for trading opportunities. Determining which pitchers have been the luckiest and which have been the most unfortunate is a good exercise to undertake to identity potential trade targets or sell high candidates.

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