Pick Six Value Picks: Starters and Relievers by Justin Merry May 26, 2011 To close out our series of looks at the values of players in ottoneu Pick Six, we look today at pitchers. As before, the numbers below are based on weighted averages of THT’s Oliver and BPro’s PECOTA (more weight to Oliver b/c it includes this season’s data). The numbers are FP (FanGraphs Points per IP), though keep in mind that for starters this number is divided by four to keep starters from being the only thing that matters in pick six. Starting Pitchers Elite Five (they cost a fortune, but they’re worth it) Tim Lincecum, 5.33 FP/IP, $48 Josh Johnson, 5.21 FP/IP, $38 Felix Hernandez, 5.04 FP/IP, $49 Cliff Lee, 5.04 FP/IP, $43 Roy Halladay, 5.01 FP/IP, $52 Johnson’s injury risk has kept his value down in traditional ottoneu, but when he’s healthy (currently has shoulder ouchie), he’s the best value of this group. But you can’t go wrong here: more than any other pitchers in baseball, these guys should give you lots of productive innings per start. Value Five (better production than you’re paying for) Chad Billingsley, 4.72 FP/IP, $15 Chris Carpenter, 4.57 FP/IP, $16 Hiroki Kuroda, 4.53 FP/IP, $6.50 Erik Bedard, 4.44 FP/IP, $0.75 Joel Pineiro, 4.27 FP/IP, $0.50 Fun fact: based on Colin Wyers’ new WARP at BPro, which is DIPS-like but takes into account situations in which GB’s and FB’s were made, Chad Billingsley led all of major league baseball last year in pitching value. I don’t know if I believe that, but nevertheless, I think the guy is pretty undervalued. I know folks are worried about Carpenter, but I think he’s still a good bet most nights. Kuroda don’t get no respect, but was awesome last year and this year has been terrific most of this year. Bedard’s number is iffy given that he is coming off major injury, but the guy’s been terrific for the past month. And Pineiro is the best of a large group of other pitchers right around his cost point (minimal) and projected production level (decent). Others include Justin Masterson, Tim Stauffer, Scott Baker, Jair Jurrjens, Doug Fister, etc. Not-Exactly-Bargain Three Ubaldo Jimenez, 4.48 FP/IP, $33.25 Jeremy Hellickson, 4.18 FP/IP, $13.25 Clay Buchholz, 4.11 FP/IP, $11.50 … Here’s the thing about this list. These guys are all fine pitchers. But these three are all projected at production that is well below what pitchers of similar cost are projected to produce. And, on top of that, all of them are also off to relatively poor starts (with Buchholz and Hellickson, their ERA is fine, but their fielding-independent stats aren’t so hot). There are also a number of guys who my spreadsheet says are overvalued (e.g. Trevor Cahill), but are off to such impressive starts, by all measures, that I’m uncomfortable saying they’re actually overpriced. Pitcher projections, after all, are an inexact science, and pitchers can take big steps forward in actual talent level over a short period of time. Relief Pitchers As mentioned in a previous post, perhaps the most important thing when selecting a reliever is to find someone who is likely to pitch that day. That said, purely from a production standpoint, there certainly are some relievers that are better values than others. Elite Three Heath Bell, 5.37 FP/IP, $12.50 Mariano Rivera, 5.18 FP/IP, $15.50 Brian Wilson, 5.09 FP/IP, $14.50 These guys are the kings. You can be worried about Bell’s reduced strikeout rate, or Wilson’s crazy walk rate this year. But no relievers in baseball have put up the body of work that these have over the last several years. Value Five Sergio Romo, 5.18 FP/IP, $0.75 Francisco Rodriguez, 4.82 FP/IP (plus saves), $3.50 Grant Balfour, 4.76 FP/IP (plus saves, for now), $0.50 J.J. Putz, 4.71 FP/IP (plus saves), $1.75 Joel Hanrahan, 4.64 FP/IP (plus saves), $2.00 Romo is tied with Rivera for the second best pure rate projection of any reliever in baseball. The only problem is that he is primarily used as a LOOGY: 19 games, 12.2 innings. Even with the occasional hold and the ridiculous strikeout rate, that’s not going to get you as many points as you’d like. That said, he’s almost certain not to hurt you. The other three, however, cost next to nothing, and are all closers (Balfour is one for the next week or so), and thus will primarily be used in save situations when they can bring in those extra 5 points per save. And on top of that, they’re all very good pitchers, good bets to net you a lot of points per outing. Not-Exactly-Bargain Three George Sherrill, 4.10 FP/IP, $26.25 Neftali Feliz, 4.63 FP/IP (plus save), $13.75 Chris Perez, 4.34 FP/IP (plus saves), $6.25 Sherrill’s the result of some bizarro thing that happened in an ottoneu auction somewhere. His price tag is dropping steadily each week, and eventually his cost will be down where it belongs. It’s comedy. I think there should probably be an achievement for playing him and still doing well. The others are more interesting. Feliz was the talk of spring training because of his uncertain role, but when he was named closer he was expected to do very well. While his ERA is a sparkly 1.20 this year, what the heck is going on with his FIP? It’s 5.11. xFIP is 5.69! Walk rate is way up, k-rate is way down. I think he’ll get better as the season wears on, but I’m not touching him for now. Chris Perez is showing similar (though less severe) drops in his peripherals, and has an ugly 5.23 xFIP. Both scare me right now, despite their strong-looking ERA. Hope you’ve enjoyed these looks at player values in pick six. You can find my look at catchers and corner infielders here, and middle infielders and outfielders here.