Archive for Starting Pitchers

Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals | 50% Owned (Y!) | 57.5% Owned (ESPN)
The young righty didn’t exactly start the season out on a high note, as he struggled to strike batters out, and his ERA paid the price. However, Zimmermann has turned a corner as of late, and is looking like a darn good starting pitcher once again. Behold, as I give on to you split stats!

April: 29.2 IP, 4.25 K/9, 2.90 FIP, 4.55 ERA
May: 24.2 IP, 9.49 K/9, 2.70 FIP, 3.28 ERA

While Zimm’s April FIP looks awfully nice, his xFIP came in at around 4.00, so most of his work was done by keeping the ball in the yard. In May, however, his xFIP is in the low-3s.

Looking at some pitch f/x data, Zimmermann’s average fastball velocity is exactly the same as it was before he went under the knife, so it’s not like he’s trying to deal with a different arsenal of pitches at his disposal. His biggest problem has been a mediocre curveball that hasn’t been fooling hitters, but his fastball-slider combo is good enough to get righties out. He’s looking like he’s mixed-league worthy right now, and his ownership rates reflect that.

Tim Stauffer, Padres | 36% | 6.4%
Stauffer’s FIP and xFIP numbers look pretty darn good, and they have been backed up by good performances for most of this season. Over his past couple of starts, though, Stauffer has been hit around, and he still hasn’t picked up a win this year. I had the chance to watch Stauffer when he played the Mariners this past weekend, and he did not look sharp. Even though he kept the ball down in the zone and got a good deal of grounders, his fastball looked a little flat and his command was shaky at times. In my opinion, he was lucky to escape with a six innings and three earned runs. I still like the idea of Stauffer on my fantasy team, but you have to keep and eye on him during his next couple of starts to make sure he doesn’t blow up. If he doesn’t, he’s a great guy to have around.

Jordan Lyles, Astros | 0% | 0%
Lyles is Houston’s top prospect, at least according to our own Marc Hulet. Lyles isn’t anything spectacular, but he has a decent arsenal and has consistently posted FIPs in the 3s throughout his minor league career. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lyles up in the big leagues within a month or two, as the Astros need to take a look and see what they have long term with this guy. He won’t be great when he first comes up, but he could be a NL spot starter, at the very least.

Today’s waiver wire will help solve some of your up-the-middle problems…

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On Saturday, I looked at the five pitchers with the largest differential between their rank amongst all starters in BB/9 and their F-Strike% rank that would suggest an improved walk rate in the future. Today I check out the opposite, those pitchers whose F-Strike% would hint at a worse walk rate than what that pitcher has posted thus far.

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Here is the latest update to Week 8 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: Worley, Villanueva

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Chacin, McCarthy, Ross, Litsch, Blanton.

Let’s take a look at Carlos Villanueva, who is getting his first starts of the season after making 13 relief appearances.

The Blue Jays acquired Villanueva from the Brewers for a player to be named later following the 2010 season. He spent his first five seasons with Milwaukee bouncing back between starting and relieving for the first four years. Last year he worked exclusively out of the bullpen and at one point seemed to be in the mix for the closer’s job which eventually went to John Axford.

Villanueva has a starting pitcher’s repertoire, with a four-pitch arsenal. However, he has fared much better in short relief, with an ERA nearly a run lower when he works out of the bullpen throughout his career.

The 27-year old has always done a good job of racking up strikeouts but has struggled in most other areas. He’s a flyball pitcher with an elevated HR/FB rate. His success early this year can be attributed to a HR/FB rate half of what it was in 2010. Of course a .148 BABIP doesn’t hurt, either.

Villanueva has a tough game in Yankee Stadium and follows that up with a home start against the White Sox. The Yankees lead the AL in HR by a comfortable margin and the White Sox are above average with 44 HR going into Sunday.

If Villanueva can keep the ball in the park, he has a shot, especially against a Chicago squad that has struggled to score runs in long stretches this season. But given Villanueva’s history, that is a pretty big if, especially with these being his first starts of the year.

Last Sunday week we looked at Kyle Davies, who ended up pitching just 0.2 innings before landing on the disabled list with a sore shoulder.

This past week, the CDC issued guidelines on how to survive a Zombie Apocalypse. “In such a scenario,” the CDC warns, “zombies would take over entire countries, roaming city streets eating anything living that got in their way.”

Scoff at your own peril — the living dead are already in our midst. In the Pacific Northwest, Erik Bedard is feasting on the flesh of AL hitters.

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In past pitcher articles, I have focused on strikeout and ground ball inducing skills and ignored control, though that has not been intentional. A couple of weeks ago, Carson Cistulli found that there was a strong inverse relationship between a pitcher’s F-Strike% and BB/9. This makes intuitive sense since once we already know the pitcher has an 0-1 count on the batter, it is that much less likely he ends up walking him. To that end, I decided to compare where a pitcher ranked in F-Strike% with his ranking in BB/9 to determine whose walk rates might be in for improvement. As a reminder, only “qualified” pitchers were included. And for reference, the league average F-Strike% has been 58.9%, while the league average BB/9 has been 3.30.

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I’m going to try something new here, so bear with me. Have you ever looked at two players who were having very similar seasons, but had vastly difference ownership percentages? I’m not talking about after one week when small sample sizes rule the day and someone like Chris Shelton is putting up numbers similar to Albert Pujols. We all knew Shelton was a bum and Pujols a star. 

I mean players more evenly matched in the skill set department. Two such pitchers, Josh Tomlin and Phil Humber, caught my eye this week.

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Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 8.

Bronson Arroyo – After a solid April, Arroyo has hit the skids here in May. He has a 4.61 ERA despite a .247 BABIP. Arroyo has managed that feat by allowing 6 HR in 27.1 IP. This week he goes on the road to Atlanta and Philadelphia. The Braves are tied for second in the National League with 47 HR and while the Phillies are not the power-hitting club they’ve been in the past, Citizens Bank Park is still a homer-friendly venue. Put Arroyo on the bench this week.

Jhoulys Chacin – Fantasy players are not completely on the Chacin bandwagon and it’s hard to understand why. He’s hurled a Quality Start in seven of his nine games this season, including the last five. He’s fourth in the league in GB% and has a strong 7.80 K/9. And if that’s not enough, he checks in with a fine 1.12 WHIP. Chacin has two home starts this week and he has a 1.80 ERA after five games in Coors Field this year. Make sure he’s in your lineup.

Jorge de la Rosa – Much like his teammate listed above, de la Rosa is having a strong season yet is not considered a must-start by the fantasy crowd. Previously, walks have been a big problem but this year de la Rosa has a solid 3.18 BB/9. Last year he was victimized by the gopher ball, but in 2011 de la Rosa has kept the ball in the park and has allowed 4 HR in 56.2 IP. With two home starts this week, where he is 3-0 with a 3.50 ERA, feel confident in putting him in your lineup.

Jeremy Hellickson – In his last five starts, Hellickson is 4-0 with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.121 WHIP. He’s not striking out batters at last year’s high rate, but his 6.35 K/9 is more than acceptable when it comes along with those other numbers. It should be noted that he is outperforming his peripherals, especially his xFIP which checks in at 4.26, over a full run higher than his 3.18 ERA. Still, I like Hellickson’s chances to continue his strong pitching this week.

Jonathon Niese – A poor start to the season leaves Niese available in two-thirds of CBS Sports leagues. But in his last six starts he his 3-2 with a 3.29 ERA. Overall, Niese is using his curve ball more in 2011 and the results have been better with both his hook and fastball according to Pitch Type Values. Niese gets a bunch of ground balls (49.4%) and this year he is getting a large number of infield pop-ups (13.2%). It’s not the greatest matchups for Niese this week, with a road start in Chicago and a home game against the Phillies. Still, with his strong pitching lately, he makes a solid streaming option this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 8 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Haren, Verlander, Weaver, Kershaw, Beckett, Hamels, Nolasco, Jurrjens, Gallardo, Cain, Britton, Romero, Buchholz, Cueto, Ogando, Masterson, Lohse, Dempster, Norris, Colon, Danks, McCarthy, Ross, Vargas, Pavano, Gorzelanny, Litsch, Blanton, Duffy, Moseley, Coke, Saunders.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 6 pitchers and how they fared.

Jackson – Advised to sit. W, 5 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.857 WHIP, 7 IP. 0 ER
Latos – Advised to sit. W, 9 Ks, 3.97 ERA, 1.412 WHIP, 11.1 IP, 5 ER
Lilly – Advised to start. W, 9 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 12 IP, 6 ER
Liriano – Advised to sit. 1 K, 12.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 3 IP, 4 ER
Morrow – Advised to start. W, 14 Ks, 8.64 ERA, 1.560 WHIP, 8.1 IP, 8 ER

Jake Arrieta was drafted in the 5th round of the 2007 draft and moved up through the minors relatively quickly, making his Orioles debut in 2010. With sub-3.00 ERAs at three of his four stops down on the farm, he made his way up the pitching prospect rankings. After getting a mid-season call last year, Arrieta is making it through his first full season at the Major League level. It is likely that Arrieta is owned in every deep mixed and AL-Only league, but the question becomes whether we may be witnessing a breakout season that would enable him to generate value in shallower mixed leagues.

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In today’s look at NL Starting Pitchers, we focus on two youngsters in the NL West, including one starter who’s having problems in the minors.

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