Wrapping up our survey of disappointing seasons, we turn our attention to shortstops and outfielders.
My pick to hit to his cost the rest of the way: Tsuyoshi Nishioka
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After a one week hiatus, I’m continuing to look at players who have been busts in ottoneu fangraphs points fantasy baseball leagues. It uses the same model described in this post, although the values have been updated based on year to date statistics.
(it takes me a while to get there, but in this post I propose an alternative to the current FanGraphs Points scoring system for pitchers)
Last week, LuckyStrikes asked me to do a post talking about and defending the scoring system used for pitchers in ottoneu FanGraphs Points leagues (I’m the one that developed it). He pointed out that Doug Fister has been a top-20 pitcher thus far in FanGraphs Points, and went so far to say that it seemed like any scrub pitcher in San Diego or Seattle seems to do well in this system.
Here’s the thing: Fister arguably has been a top-20 pitcher thus far (or, at least, right on the fringes of top-20). He has 2.7 WAR, which ranks exactly 20th in MLB right now among pitchers, with a 3.09 ERA and a 3.13 FIP in 125 innings! He’s been fantastic. In fact, the entire Seattle rotation has been fantastic:
Using the same model described in my looks at surprise players, here are the biggest busts thus far in ottoneu lwts leagues at catcher and first base. Almost by definition, these guys are all expected to regress in a positive direction going forward. But for each position I’ll give you “my pick,” the player that I think is most likely to turn it around in the second half and produce at their price tag.
My Pick: Joe Mauer
Continuing on last week’s theme, we turn our attention today to the National League fantasy All-Stars. As a reminder, I’m basing this on the past calendar year’s performance under the FanGraphs Points scoring system. The $ values shown are the player’s average cost on ottoneu FanGraphs Points leagues.
Catcher: Brian McCann (894 pts, .377 wOBA, $30)
Alternates: Buster Posey (753 pts, .368 wOBA, $31) and Carlos Ruiz (595 pts, .350 wOBA, $5)
Brian McCann is such a stud. He’s been the best fantasy catcher in the National League for years, and yet somehow I think he still is a bit underrated. Speaking of underrated, Carlos Ruiz has been a monster over the past year, even if he doesn’t play as often as some of the big guns. I have him in a 20-team league and can’t find anyone who wants him!
The All-Star Game voting discussion is topical in real life, so why not talk about it in fantasy? I’m of the philosophy that All Star Games should be about the best players, not just the players off to a hot start over the first few months. In this case, I’ll define “best player” as the players that offered the most production over the past calendar year (i.e. June 2010 through May 2011). Below, the point values are FanGraphs Points, and the $ shown are the player’s average cost. Without further delay, here are your American League (fantasy) All-Stars!
Catcher: Victor Martinez (746.5 pts, .368 wOBA, $25)
Alternates: Carlos Santana (571 pts, .352 wOBA, $31) and Mike Napoli (565 pts, .343 wOBA, $12)
Now primarily a DH, Martinez continues to be an excellent fantasy producer. The guy can hit, and with catcher eligibility he’s just a terrific player–probably more so in fantasy than in real life, given his fielding issues. Santana is back after missing time with injury, and has largely picked up where he left off last year. Napoli might surprise some folks, but he got a lot of playing time after the first few months last year and produced very well. If only he could actually catch, he’d get more PT…
Continuing last week’s theme of looking at the biggest surprises thus far in ottoneu lwts leagues (and, really, fantasy as a whole), we look today at second basemen, shortstops, and outfielders.
My pick: Howard Kendrick
We’re a third of the through the season, so I’d like to take a look at which players have provided the best production relative to their auction cost in ottoneu leagues…and by extension, probably much of fantasy baseball. While this is specific to ottoneu, I think this will apply to most of fantasy baseball.
We’ll start today with catchers and corner infielders. I’ll give you the top three values at that position, plus my pick for the player of those three that is least likely to regress (or, perhaps, the player likely to regress the least). Avg. Cost is just their current average cost in ottoneu, whereas the “Performed As” number is essentially an measure of what the dollar value would be for performance at this level for an entire season (using the lwts-based FanGraphs Points system; methods description at the bottom). Expect this to change by season’s end: these guys are all overperforming, and are all good bets to regress to some degree.
My Pick: Ramon Hernandez Read the rest of this entry »
To close out our series of looks at the values of players in ottoneu Pick Six, we look today at pitchers. As before, the numbers below are based on weighted averages of THT’s Oliver and BPro’s PECOTA (more weight to Oliver b/c it includes this season’s data). The numbers are FP (FanGraphs Points per IP), though keep in mind that for starters this number is divided by four to keep starters from being the only thing that matters in pick six.
Tim Lincecum, 5.33 FP/IP, $48
Josh Johnson, 5.21 FP/IP, $38
Felix Hernandez, 5.04 FP/IP, $49
Cliff Lee, 5.04 FP/IP, $43
Roy Halladay, 5.01 FP/IP, $52
Johnson’s injury risk has kept his value down in traditional ottoneu, but when he’s healthy (currently has shoulder ouchie), he’s the best value of this group. But you can’t go wrong here: more than any other pitchers in baseball, these guys should give you lots of productive innings per start.
Today we’ll continue our look at Pick Six values by looking at middle infield and outfield. You can see our discussion of catcher and corner infield values here. As a reminder, the production numbers you see below (FP/PA = Fangraphs Points per Plate Appearance) are weighted averages of THT’s Oliver and BPro’s PECOTA. I didn’t include ZiPS, but feel free to click the players and look up those numbers as well.
Troy Tulowitzki, 1.57 FP/PA, $56.75
Hanley Ramirez, 1.53 FP/PA, $51.50
Robinson Cano, 1.40 FP/PA, $46.75