Archive for Starting Pitchers

2015 Visualized: Outfield
2015 Visualized: Shortstop
2015 Visualized: Third Base
2015 Visualized: Second Base
2015 Visualized: First Base
2015 Visualized: Catcher

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As it has done for the past several weeks, the RotoGraphs staff will devote an entire week to a particular defensive position. After a three-week lull during which outfielders (and the hot stove) dominated our conversations, we will turn our collective attention to starting pitchers.

In past posts, I utilized Depth Charts projections, which combined two premier player projection systems (Steamer and ZiPS) while using playing times allocated by FanGraphs staff. However, I missed the boat on accessing pitcher Depth Chart projections from 2015. So, instead, I pulled them from Steamer’s website, on which they hosted a Google Doc of 2015’s preseason projections.

Using these projections, I compared projected xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching) to actual xFIP (1) by team and (2) by player within team. Because xFIP is a rate metric, I did not need to scale performances by playing time. I hope FanGraphs’ database split performances by starting and relieving because that’s what I asked it to do; if a pitcher who split time between the rotation and bullpen appears to have wonky numbers, it could be his splits, or it could be I’m an idiot.

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Jordan Zimmermann signed by the Tigers

The move to Detroit for the 29-year-old Zimmermann would be considered a downgrade based mainly on him facing a DH more often than a pitcher. The other factors are about the sasme. The ballpark factors are both league average. The 2015 Tigers defense was better than the Nationals according to UZR, but the Tigers also lost their top-rated defender in Cespedes.

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I will continue to implement player grading on the scouting scales of 20-80. I will use Dan Farnsworth’s scale he discussed in this article.

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Yesterday, I reviewed my short list of pitchers that my xBB% equation suggested had significant room for improvement. Today I check in on those pitchers I identified as having downside, as this group posted xBB% marks well above their actual walk rates in 2014.

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The preseason reviews continue to trickle in and today I’ll recap my list of xBB% underachievers. Using my xBB% equation, I identified pitchers whose walk rates were well above their xBB%, suggesting likely improvement in 2015. Let’s see how the equation did for the names I discussed.

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Yesterday, I recapped my preseason starting pitcher strikeout rate upside target list using my xK% equation. So naturally today I’ll review the other side of that list, those pitchers who posted strikeout rates well below their xK% marks, which suggested potential downside for the 2015 season.

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Review season continues this week and I begin by analyzing how well my xK% equation performed at identifying starting pitchers with strikeout rate upside in 2015. When I originally created my upside target group, it wasn’t a straight list of the starters whose xK% marks most exceeded their actual K% marks, but rather the more interesting names that were fantasy relevant that appeared at or near the top.

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The best of, worst of awards continue this week along with a spotlight on fantasy baseball’s catcher landscape in 2015. Last week, I awarded the 2015 Sigh Young — fantasy baseball’s biggest pitching bust — to Jeff Samardzija, who miserably underperformed expectations en route to a pretty awful season.

The 2015 Roto Overhyped Pitcher award is a bit different and probably more subjective. Rather than simply be bad, a pitcher must have also been over-hyped. Too much hype typically occurs for two reasons, neither of which are mutually exclusive:

1. The pitcher was once a top prospect
2. The pitcher broke out, or turned the corner, the previous season

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Review season continues and today I’ll recap the starting pitchers whose spring training strikeout rates were significantly above their Steamer projected K% marks. As a reminder, with the help of Matt Swartz, I found that spring strikeout rates do provide meaning with regards to regular season performance, something that Dan Rosenheck validated as true more recently.

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I will continue to implement player grading on the scouting scales of 20-80. I will use Kiley McDaniels scale he discussed in this article.

I will give a value for where I think the pitcher could currently fit in on the average team (CV=current value) and where they could end up (FV=future value). I am sure I will disagree with some grades from others, but I am only looking at one game.

Note: If I say a pitch moves 11-5, it is from the pitcher’s perspective.

Tyler Duffey (CV: 50/FV: 60+)
9/20/15 vs Angels

Game Thoughts
• On the surface, the 24-year-old righty looked to have just two pitches, fastball and curveball, but his manipulation of these two make him tougher to figure out.
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