Quick Looks: Duffey, McCullers, Severino

I will continue to implement player grading on the scouting scales of 20-80. I will use Kiley McDaniels scale he discussed in this article.

Grade	Hitter	Starting Pitcher	Relief Pitcher	WAR
80	Top 1-2	#1 Starter	—-	7
75	Top 2-3	#1	—-	6
70	Top 5	#1/2	—-	5
65	All-Star	#2/3	—-	4
60	Plus	#3	High Closer	3
55	Above Avg	#3/4	Mid Closer	2.5
50	Avg Regular	#4	Low CL/High SU	2
45	Platoon/Util	#5	Low Setup	1.5
40	Bench	Swing/Spot SP	Middle RP	1
35	Emergency Call-Up	Emergency Call-Up	Emergency Call-Up	0
30	*Organizational	*Organizational	*Organizational	-1

I will give a value for where I think the pitcher could currently fit in on the average team (CV=current value) and where they could end up (FV=future value). I am sure I will disagree with some grades from others, but I am only looking at one game.

Note: If I say a pitch moves 11-5, it is from the pitcher’s perspective.

Tyler Duffey (CV: 50/FV: 60+)
9/20/15 vs Angels

Game Thoughts
• On the surface, the 24-year-old righty looked to have just two pitches, fastball and curveball, but his manipulation of these two make him tougher to figure out.
• He had two fastballs, two and four-seam, which were both normally between 88-91 mph. The four-seamer had some nice late release side break while the two-seamer bore down with arm-side break. They are probably below average fastballs. They are thrown to help set up his curve.
• His curveball is a work of art. He can throw it between 74 and 81 mph. At the lower speeds, it had more of a 2/8 break and more of a 12/6 break at higher speeds. He could throw it for strikes or to get swinging strikes. The pitch gets a 65% GB% and 17.5% SwStr% which are both above average.
• I am a little worried about his near 40% curveball usage. It is the highest among all starting pitchers (min 40 IP). Hopefully, he can stay healthy with that high usage.
• He is going to give up weak contact with the curveball (no home runs off of it this past season). He may be able to maintain an ERA lower than his ERA estimators.
• He threw a change early in the season, but he ended up dropping it. I gave him a 60+ ranking because of a future change. If he is able to mix in another pitch, he will be a lot better.

Final thoughts: He is a good two-pitch pitcher. Most pitchers can’t make it on just two pitches and he may struggle the second and third times through a lineup. I don’t see him as a sexy pick going forward, but he should be fantasy relevant for a few more years.

 

Lance McCullers (CV: 50/FV: 60)
8/30 vs. Twins

Game Thoughts
• The 22-year-old righty was not as sharp compared to what I remember of him from an earlier start.
• He started off the game with some major control issues by walking three of the first four hitters.
• He threw a 91-96 mph fastball with some arm side run. Besides the high velocity, it is not a special pitch and hitter should be able to square it up.
• His 12-6 hard curve was his best pitch and was between 82-86 mph. He hung a couple of them in the first inning, but he got it under control later in the game. For the season, the pitch is getting an above average number of swinging strikes and groundballs.
• Finally, he threw a change as a third pitch. It was nothing special for three innings where it was straight and only had speed deception. Finally, in the fourth inning it began to sink.

Final thoughts: A person could see the potential for a good pitcher, but it took him a few innings to get warmed up. He needs to be a more consistent pitcher and get the walks under control.

 

Luis Severino (CV: 55, FV: 65)
9/22/15 vs Blue Jays

Game Thoughts
• The 21-year-old Severino looked good. I have read some doubters saying he may have to move to the bullpen eventually because of his size and delivery. I heard the same things about Stroman and Ventura. I think the Yankees will start him until he breaks or is completely ineffective.
• His fastball was at 93-97 mph and straight. For the amount of effort he has in his delivery, he has plus control of this pitch and can move it around the plate. During the season, he got both above average ground balls and swinging strikes with it.
• His slider was between 87-91 mph and had a loopy motion. It broke inconsistently if it broke at all. For the season, it got only 8.6% swinging strikes which is way below the 14.4% league average for sliders.
• His change was better than his slider, even though he has thrown it half as much as his slider. It comes in at the same speed as the slider (87-92 mph), but breaks sharply down. It is getting an insane 58% GB% and 18% SwStr%. • The one issue with this pitch is it is just a chase-and-swing pitch with a 25% Zone%
• The Blue Jays attacked Severino early in the count hoping for a fastball.

Final thoughts: Severino has two plus-plus pitches in his fastball and change. These can make him a bullpen ace, but may limit him as a starter. If he can get his slider to be even average, watch out. One item to watch in spring training will be his slider command. It could make a huge difference in his value.