Reviewing the 2014 xK% Underachievers, AKA: The Upsiders

Review season continues this week and I begin by analyzing how well my xK% equation performed at identifying starting pitchers with strikeout rate upside in 2015. When I originally created my upside target group, it wasn’t a straight list of the starters whose xK% marks most exceeded their actual K% marks, but rather the more interesting names that were fantasy relevant that appeared at or near the top.

Michael Pineda

2014 K% — 20.3%
2015 K% — 23.4%

Pineda didn’t enjoy much of a bump in velocity despite being further removed from serious shoulder surgery and his pitch selection was nearly identical this year compared to last. But only a minor jump in SwStk% led to a pretty meaningful increase in his strikeout rate. Since he turned himself into a ground ball pitcher this year, his overall skills profile has become elite. Even betters news is that he battled the luck dragons all year and could come at a significant discount next season.

Jeremy Hellickson

2014 K% — 19.2%
2015 K% — 19.0%

Hellickson seemed to have two gusts of wind behind him to prop up his strikeout rate this year — better fortune as suggested by xK% and a move to the National League. Unfortunately, his strikeout rate actually declined slightly and his ERA was once again terrible. He swapped out some changeups for a couple of extra fastballs and curves, which is a curious move by a pitcher who has a bad fastball and one of the better changeups in baseball. His curve was actually pretty good at inducing swings and misses, giving him two strong secondary pitches. He needs to up that changeup usage back into the high 20% range, and if that happens, I remain optimistic that he could get that ERA back below 4.00.

Allen Webster

2014 K% — 13.9%
2015 K% — 12.0%

Webster’s 12.0% strikeout rate came in just 31 Major League innings because he has become bad, plain and simple. He posted a cringe-inducing 8.18 ERA at Triple-A and a 5.81 mark with the Diamondbacks and has struggled with diminished velocity, while showing none of the strikeout potential he displayed several years ago. Time to move on from him Podhorzer.

Drew Smyly

2014 K% — 21.2%
2015 K% — 28.0%

Smyly missed a significant chunk of the season with shoulder issues that eventually was deemed a partially torn labrum. He opted to go the rehab route rather than for surgery which would have knocked him out for the season. Amazingly, Smyly remained dominant upon return from the disabled list, striking out 26.4% of the batters he faced. Even more promising was that his velocity was normal. Since he didn’t have his shoulder repaired, he’s a major health risk for next year.

Rubby de la Rosa

2014 K% — 16.1% (as a starter only)
2015 K% — 18.5%

Like Hellickson above, de la Rosa looked to benefit from the discrepancy between his xK% and his actual K%, in addition to a move to the National League. Unlike Hellickson though, de la Rosa actually delivered. But just like other fellow hard throwers, it still feels like we should be seeing more. His four-seam fastball, slider and changeup all generated SwStk% marks above the league average. His problem doesn’t stem from an inability to induce swings and misses, but rather for some reason, both his looking and foul strikes are at or below the league average. Called strikes have been the biggest issue, which might indicate a problem with command, but I’m just speculating here. He remains an excellent target in NL-Only leagues next year and a nice sleeper in shallower leagues for 2016.

Brett Anderson

2014 K% — 16.1%
2015 K% — 15.5%

I thought the move out of Colorado would help as well, but Anderson ended up posting the lowest strikeout rate of his career. The funny thing is he actually made it through an entire season without ever being placed on the disabled list! It figures that he’s finally healthy for a change and his strikeout rate declines. At least he offset those missing strikeouts with even more grounders. The good news is that his fastball velocity rebounded, jumping back above 90.0 mph. But he reduced his slider usage, which is odd because it’s easily his best pitch, though the SwStk% on the pitch hit a four-year low.

So not a great showing, as only three of the six targets actually increased their strikeout rates. Tomorrow I’ll recap the list of pitchers that had downside.





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

4 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Obsessivegiantscompulsive
8 years ago

Nice rundown of your hits and misses. About Anderson, perhaps his first healthy season is related to less usage of his slider? Don’t know how much less he used, but you didn’t say that he abandoned it, so perhaps I took a leap. Look forward to your writing next season, keep up the good work.

Dan Greermember
8 years ago
Reply to  Mike Podhorzer

Tommy John is an elbow issue, no?