Reviewing the 2014 xBB% Underachievers, AKA: The Upsiders

The preseason reviews continue to trickle in and today I’ll recap my list of xBB% underachievers. Using my xBB% equation, I identified pitchers whose walk rates were well above their xBB%, suggesting likely improvement in 2015. Let’s see how the equation did for the names I discussed.

Carlos Martinez

2014 — 9.3% BB%
2015 — 8.3%

Though I proclaimed that Martinez was unlikely to become the big breakout star several of his indicators suggested he could become, I did note that the upside was immense, making him worth taking on a chance on in any league. Well that breakout actually did occur and Martinez’s improved walk rate should be credited with an assist. His overall strike percentage remained above average, while his F-Strike% spiked. I don’t expect him to post a walk rate above 9% again.

Jenrry Mejia

2014 — 9.8%
2015 — 7.4%

Mejia pitched just 7.1 innings after an elbow injured, following by not one, but two positive tests for PEDs. It’s too bad, because this was an exciting skill set.

Andrew Cashner

2014 — 5.7%
2015 — 8.2%

Cashner proved to be one of this season’s bigger starting pitcher disappointments, as his ERA shot up nearly two runs. Much of that was just his previous good fortune drying up, coupled with some sudden bad luck. But his strike percentage fell precipitously, supporting the increased walk rate. However, his 2014 performance was clearly out of line with his history and now appears to be the fluke, rather than some sustainable improvement. I still maintain optimism that the light will turn back on at some point and he’ll translate that mid-90s fastball and solid slider into better than just a league average strikeout rate. But there’s no sense in paying for him expecting it to happen.

Shelby Miller

2014 — 9.6%
2015 — 8.5%

After a disappointing performance from a skills perspective in his last season with the Cardinals, Miller rebounded somewhat, as his walk rate came back down and his strikeout rate bounced back marginally. His strike percentage actually rose to a career best, while his SwStk% mirrored his 2013 season. That’s a nice pairing with both improved control and a return to respectable swing and miss stuff. But since he’s become the new Matt Cain, annually outperforming his peripherals, he’s not a pitcher I’m going to be owning anytime soon.

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Four names already represents a tiny sample from which to judge, but this list was made even smaller thanks to Mejia’s limited innings due to a pair of drug-related suspensions. Two of the three starting did enjoy a decline in walk rate, while it was silly to bet on Cashner to make even further gains that he had in 2014.