It’s oldies week here on our dumpster dive as we look at two players who, at one time or another, have generated interest in fantasy only to flame out. But they’re back with playing time opportunities, and do enough well to at least place them on the radar in AL-only leagues. As a reminder, I’m using CBS for the ownership percentages.
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For all the Anthony DeSclafani and Chase Anderson love I’m getting in my inbox and Twitter feed, there’s equal parts consternation when it comes to Drew Hutchison and Shane Greene. Rightfully so. The point with the deep sleepers is to hit the lottery, but that holds a hidden second moment, just as important as the first: cutting bait before it’s too late. Have we reached that moment with the two early season duds?
First, it’s tempting to see every pitcher through the new stats on the website. Shane Greene is top 15 in Soft%! Anthony DeSclafani is top 20! Drew Hutchison is almost exactly league average in soft, medium, and hard contact allowed!
But we shouldn’t.
Yesterday, I dove into the Baseball-Reference S/Str (swinging strike rate) metric and identified those starting pitchers who have enjoyed the biggest surge compared to last season. So naturally, today I’ll check in on the other side of the coin — those starting pitchers who have suffered through the largest decline in swinging strike rate. Obviously, knowing that a pitcher is inducing fewer swings and misses is worrisome, but we’ll see if there’s any hope for a rebound.
A week ago, I identified the starting pitchers whose xK% marks were most above their actual strikeout rates. The swinging strike component is the most significant in my xK% equation, so let’s take a look at which pitchers have enjoyed the biggest surge in their S/Str (Baseball-Reference metric) this season. The 2015 numbers do not include yesterday’s starts.
I will continue to implement player grading on the scouting scales of 20-80. I will use Kiley McDaniels scale he discussed in this article.
| Grade | Hitter | Starting Pitcher | Relief Pitcher | WAR |
| 80 | Top 1-2 | #1 Starter | —- | 7 |
| 75 | Top 2-3 | #1 | —- | 6 |
| 70 | Top 5 | #1/2 | —- | 5 |
| 65 | All-Star | #2/3 | —- | 4 |
| 60 | Plus | #3 | High Closer | 3 |
| 55 | Above Avg | #3/4 | Mid Closer | 2.5 |
| 50 | Avg Regular | #4 | Low CL/High SU | 2 |
| 45 | Platoon/Util | #5 | Low Setup | 1.5 |
| 40 | Bench | Swing/Spot SP | Middle RP | 1 |
| 35 | Emergency Call-Up | Emergency Call-Up | Emergency Call-Up | 0 |
| 30 | *Organizational | *Organizational | *Organizational | -1 |
I will give a value for where I think the pitcher could currently fit in on the average team (CV=current value) and where they could end up (FV=future value). I am sure I will disagree with some grades from others, but I am only looking at one game.
Note: If I say a pitch moves 11-5, it is from the pitcher’s perspective.
Michael Lorenzen (CV: 50/FV: 60)
4/29/15 vs Brewers
Game Thoughts
• This game was the 23-year-old righty’s first MLB start.
• His fastball was 93-95 mph with either no break or just a bit on the release side. It was his only called strike pitch of the night. He nibbled with it around the zone seeing a ton of full counts. Also, he got too much of the plate at times with it thereby giving up three homes.
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It’s tier update time! I’m notoriously stubborn when it comes to changing my opinion of a player and three or four starts is far too small a sample to convince me to make any real dramatic adjustments. However, there are some scenarios in which I will reconsider — a change in fastball velocity, a change in pitch mix, an injury, or perhaps the pitcher’s defensive support performing better or worse than expected. That’s really about it. I care little for actual results at this point unless there’s a significant change in results not explained by the aforementioned factors. Like, if Mark Buehrle was suddenly striking out more than a batter per inning. My xK% equation is fantastic in small sample sizes since it’s based on per-pitch metrics and not innings or batters faced. But still, the underlying components themselves could quickly change.
As a reminder, the tiers are named after the best characters from the FXX show, Man Seeking Woman.
We haven’t finished April yet and injuries are already taking their toll on a lot of teams. I’m talking “real” teams in this instance, but that of course trickles down to our fantasy clubs so we’re also left looking for replacements for the likes of Adam Wainwright, Brandon McCarthy, and now Masahiro Tanaka (although this will be focused on NL arms, so you’ll have to be in a mixer to use one of these as a replacement for Tanaka).
In the FanGraphs Experts ottoneu League, I nearly traded Julio Teheran this off-season. I shopped him hard, targeting OF help. But holding him on a cheap contract was just too attractive – he’s 24 years old and coming off two straight excellent fantasy seasons.
But 2015 is not off to a good start. I was smart enough to bench him on Tuesday night, but after allowing 7 R (3 ER) over 5.1, his numbers on the year are not pretty. 27 IP, only 22 K, 12 BB, 6 HR. His 4.67 ERA is bad; his 6.07 FIP is worse. So what gives?
As usual, injuries create opportunity for others. That’s the theme yet again in this week’s edition of the deep league waiver wire.
If there’s a common thread between guests of the deep league wire, it’s that they typically don’t enter the fantasy picture because they were anyone’s ideal choice for playing time — they get their opportunities because others go down with injuries or are simply too awful to deserve major league starting jobs. This week’s candidates prove no exception, though both have the potential to contribute in NL-only leagues. As a reminder, I use CBS for the ownership percentages.
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