Scott Baker and J.T. Realmuto: Deep League Wire
If there’s a common thread between guests of the deep league wire, it’s that they typically don’t enter the fantasy picture because they were anyone’s ideal choice for playing time — they get their opportunities because others go down with injuries or are simply too awful to deserve major league starting jobs. This week’s candidates prove no exception, though both have the potential to contribute in NL-only leagues. As a reminder, I use CBS for the ownership percentages.
Scott Baker / SP / Los Angeles Dodgers / 2%
Brandon McCarthy is done for the year thanks to a torn UCL, and the 33-year-old Baker has first dibs on replacing him in the rotation. Despite taking the loss Sunday in what was his first appearance of 2015, Baker held his own against a Padres team that’s featured one of the best offenses in the NL so far this year, allowing three earned runs over seven innings. That followed what was a very successful three-start stint in Triple-A, where he nearly pitched a perfect game against Iowa and was named the PCL’s pitcher of the week on Monday.
Baker has carved out a decent major league career, though his glory days in Minnesota were some time ago, and he’s been unable to stay healthy for a prolonged period of time since posting 14.9 WAR from 2007 to 2011. Last year in Texas, Baker pitched mostly out of the bullpen, but he was lit up with a 5.47 ERA, and the home run ball — a recurring problem in his career — was especially vicious to him, as his 1.67 HR/9 rate was third-highest among pitchers with at least 80 innings.
Of course, a lot of pitchers have trouble in Texas, and for Baker, a man with a career 45.6% FB%, perhaps finding a proper home would go a long way toward restoring his fantasy usefulness. He can still deliver strikeouts at an acceptable clip and doesn’t hurt himself too much with walks, and he’s joining a winning environment in Hollywood, where the ballpark plays fairly neutral and the team’s outfield defense ranks among the top 10 in both UZR and UZR/150 in this young season.
Baker isn’t going to set the world ablaze, and he’s almost certain to have his health problems, but he’s going to get a shot at proving he can hold down a rotation spot for a winning team. Until the Dodgers can find a better option, or Baker pitches his way out of his opportunity, he’ll be worth a look.
J.T. Realmuto / C / Miami Marlins / 13%
Yes, Jarrod Saltalamacchia was off to an abysmal start this year and was already losing playing time to Realmuto when he went on paternity leave, but it was still surprising that the Marlins DFA’d him with two years and $15 million left on his contract. The 24-year-old Realmuto probably isn’t complaining, however, as he’s now been promoted as the team’s No. 1 catcher.
Over the offseason, Kiley McDaniel found Realmuto to be the team’s second most valuable prospect, though much of that owes to his defense. Still, he’s showed decent contact ability in the minors and nearly identical splits against both left- and right-handed pitchers, and he’s basically held his own against major league pitching so far in April without crazy BABIP luck, though an 0-for-4 performance against the Mets Monday plunged his average from .265 to .237. Owners shouldn’t expect much, if anything, from Realmuto in the power department — and that’s before you consider Marlins Park as his home address — and, as Paul Sporer noted last week, he has just 13 Triple-A plate appearances to his name, so he’s going to be a bit raw in his first go-around in the majors.
But a full-time job is a full-time job, and if Realmuto can pull off plays like this with regularity, he shouldn’t be hurting for at-bats. With a spate of big-name backstops out for prolonged periods of time, Realmuto might be a decent NL-only option to consider.
Karl, a journalist living in Washington, D.C., learned about life's disappointments by following the Mets beginning at a young age. His work has appeared in numerous publications, and he has contributed to the 2014 and 2015 editions of The Hardball Times Annual. Follow/harass him on Twitter @Karl_de_Vries.
A bonus with Realmuto is the stolen base potential, he had 18 steals at AA last year.
Clay, really appreciate the heads up on that, that made my decision for me! Snagged him. Thanks!
Can Realmuto hit enough to get those SB opportunities.
You bring up a good point, Clay, though I’m concerned that the fact he’s a) trying to establish himself a major-leaguer and b) hitting at the bottom of the order will limit his attempts. But definitely something to keep an eye out for.
Karl
I’m intrigued by Baker, but confused about his velocity data. Recently Mattingly said of his performance in AAA that “his velocity is back”. Yet the Pitch F/X data shows 89.3 average FB for that first start against SD. That’s what he averaged last year with Texas (and the year before). When he was good, he was around 91.5.
Any clues? It’s certainly a favorable situation for him, at least.
Brooks says his velocity is around 90.5, for what that’s worth. I, for one, don’t put too much stock in Mattingly’s platitudes, as I’d expect him to say something positive. The question is to what extent Baker can get major league hitters out and, for fantasy purposes, maintain at least a 6 K/9. If I’m not willing to be optimistic per se, I think he deserves at least a look to see if he can hang in there and pitch serviceably for a good Dodgers team.
Karl
Thanks for the Brooks data. Makes sense for a manager to cheerlead for a guy trying to come back to the bigs. If he’s got the velocity to work from, I assume the other stuff will return, and with the shift to the NL, he’s worth having on a roto staff. Specially if he gets to avoid facing the top offense in the league.
Would you rather have Realmuto of Tuffy Goeswitch as a second catcher in an 2 catcher NL only league?
Realmuto. I’d rather roll the dice with a 24-year-old prospect than a 31-year-old journeyman in Goeswich, better ballpark and all. Plus, I’d wager that Goeswich will be replaced behind the dish before Realmuto is.
Karl
Realmuto accruing a large number of at-bats is actually a bad thing, as his poor batting average does more damage to fantasy teams the more he plays. He probably won’t have enough counting stats to offset that.
You’re probably right in that he probably won’t have a great deal of counting stats. I guess I’m holding out hope that he could hit for an acceptable enough average to make him worthwhile in NL-only formats. We’ll have to see.
Karl