Starting Pitcher Swinging Strike Rate Decliners

Yesterday, I dove into the Baseball-Reference S/Str (swinging strike rate) metric and identified those starting pitchers who have enjoyed the biggest surge compared to last season. So naturally, today I’ll check in on the other side of the coin — those starting pitchers who have suffered through the largest decline in swinging strike rate. Obviously, knowing that a pitcher is inducing fewer swings and misses is worrisome, but we’ll see if there’s any hope for a rebound.

Holy cow Alex Wood. Eno tried to explain Wood’s lack of whiffs recently and concluded that it may be a problem with command. His overall strike percentage is certainly down this year, but far from serious red flag territory and not low enough to result in his S/Str rate getting halved. He’s throwing his fastball more and changeup less, and that’s never a good move from a whiff-inducing perspective. He’s also getting more called strikes than ever before, which is why his strikeout rate hasn’t completely collapsed. The Braves offense has performed much better than expected, but I wouldn’t be confident in recommending Wood as a buy low right now.

Oh wow Stephen Strasburg!! Because he has still managed to strike out about a batter per inning, this comes as quite a shock. His S/Str has never been below 17.7%, so this is pretty crazy. Like Wood, he’s offsetting the lack of whiffs with a career high rate of called strikes. He’s also throwing more strikes than ever before. His fastball velocity is down a tick again, and it’s declined in speed every season since he has debuted. But it still sits over 94 mph, so that doesn’t explain anything. His pitch mix is similar to previous years, but his changeup, which has generated a SwStk% of at least 22% every year, is down to just 16.5% this season. And his curve, typically in the mid-teens, is sitting well below 10%. I’m not sure what’s going on here, but this is concerning to say the least. Unfortunately, with a 4.60 ERA, you can’t really do much as an owner except cross your fingers. Do you dare try buying low? It really depends on what you would have to give up.

It was delightful to come home tonight, check scores, and learn that Carlos Martinez, the man I dubbed as not being my breakout pitcher of the year, got rocked for seven runs in just 3.2 innings. And by delightful, I mean horrible, as I own him in my local league. His drop in S/Str could mostly be explained away by his move from relief to the rotation. I still don’t think a major breakout is coming, but he should earn some value in 12-team mixed leagues.

I like Nate Karns as a sleeper in AL-Only leagues (hence why I own him in AL Tout Wars) and Alex Cobb’s setback means he has a significantly longer leash in the Rays rotation. But even though we’re comparing his S/Str to a mark that gave over just 12 innings last year, I still expected it to be much better than just 12.1%. It’s basically been his fastball that has been rather poor, but his curve and changeup have been meh as well. Of course, those two pitches were meh last year too, but the fastball had nearly double the SwStk%. I have little choice but to continue running him out there and hope his fastball effective improves. But he’s a little less intriguing to me now than he was in the pre-season.

Like Martinez, Adam Warren’s drop is due to his move from the bullpen to the rotation. Great to see another of my AL Tout Wars staff members on this list! His transition hasn’t exactly gone very smoothly, as he’s struck out just 12.6% of the batters he has faced. Hoping for better, but not counting on it.

Well what do we have here, one of 2014 biggest surprise breakouts, Jacob deGrom. His minor league history did not suggest he was capable of the type of strikeout rate he posted last year, but given his breadth of pitches and high S/Str, I thought he had a chance to sustain most of that performance. And given his draft cost, seemingly most fantasy owners agreed. Five starts in and his strikeout rate now sits at what his minor league performance dictates. It has mostly been his four-seamer and his curve that have experienced a decline in SwStk%. Unfortunately, that four-seamer SwStk% last year seemed wildly unsustainable at nearly 11%, but not sure if the curve will start inducing more whiffs. All his other pitches are sitting at reasonable SwStk% levels, which means I’m not all that optimistic now that his strikeout rate is going to rebound. Call it the book being out on him and the hitters adjusting or whatever else, but this year fits in much better with his pre-2014 than his time with the Mets.

Jordan Zimmermann is battling a decline in velocity (not sure where he sat yesterday) and his fastball is getting swings and misses at less than half the rate it did last year. His curve has been excellent though, which has picked up the slack from his disappointing slider. I worry when a pitcher’s fastball isn’t working and when it coincides with a decline in velocity, it’s a troubling sign. Coming off a good outing, I might try to sell if I’m an owner.

Gio Gonzalez’s strikeout rate is fine, despite a huge drop in S/Str rate. He’s taken the Strasburg both, offsetting those missing whiffs with more called strikes and more overall strikes thrown. His velocity is fine and pitch mix completely normal, but both his four-seamer and curve are suffering from SwStk% drops. Because everything looks normal and he’s throwing strikes, I’m least worried about Gio moving forward out of the names on this list. With his ERA back below 4.00, he’s obviously no buy low candidate, but owners should breathe easy now and I think he’ll be fine.