2015 AL Starting Pitcher Tiers: May

It’s tier update time! I’m notoriously stubborn when it comes to changing my opinion of a player and three or four starts is far too small a sample to convince me to make any real dramatic adjustments. However, there are some scenarios in which I will reconsider — a change in fastball velocity, a change in pitch mix, an injury, or perhaps the pitcher’s defensive support performing better or worse than expected. That’s really about it. I care little for actual results at this point unless there’s a significant change in results not explained by the aforementioned factors. Like, if Mark Buehrle was suddenly striking out more than a batter per inning. My xK% equation is fantastic in small sample sizes since it’s based on per-pitch metrics and not innings or batters faced. But still, the underlying components themselves could quickly change.

As a reminder, the tiers are named after the best characters from the FXX show, Man Seeking Woman.

Tanaka (The P*nis Monster)

Felix Hernandez

Fun fact — Including his four starts so far this season, King Felix’s strikeout rate has jumped for four straight years, while his walk rate has declined for seven straight seasons. And yet he’s doing this as his fastball velocity is averaging a career low, just below 91 mph. Unbelievable.

Chip (The Robot)

David Price
Chris Sale
Corey Kluber

Price’s peripherals aren’t quite up to his usual standards and his strike percentage is well down. He could very well prove that his elite control the last two seasons was simply unsustainable, but it’s going to take more than five starts to convince me that this is the case. Of course, all that would do is drop him to the bottom of this tier. And since the definition of tiers is that every pitcher is interchangeable, that wouldn’t actually matter.

Sale has been the season’s unluckiest strikeout artist. Don’t worry about his meh strikeout rate. All it’s going to take is one big strikeout game and he’ll be back to normal.

Here we go again with Kluber. A .362 BABIP and suppressed 64% LOB% have conspired to push his ERA above 4.00 versus a 2.83 SIERA. But perhaps he’s actually deserving of such an inflated BABIP mark? His LD% is 25.5% and he has yet to induce a pop-up! It’s a terrible batted ball profile which suggests that the BABIP ain’t bad luck at all. But I’m not concerned. Line drive rate is fluky and he’s actually inducing an even higher rate of swings and misses than last year!

Adolf Hitler

Jeff Samardzija
Carlos Carrasco

I’m really not sure what has happened to Samardzija’s strikeouts. His velocity is fine, he’s throwing lots of strikes, but he’s just not getting the swings and misses we’re used to from him. He has seemingly been a bit unlucky as I discussed earlier in the week, but his expected mark is still a far cry from what we forecasted. If his strikeout rate is still down next month, he’ll drop a tier.

Carrasco avoided serious injury when he got hit, but after four starts, we expected more than just 15 innings from him and better than a 4.60 ERA. BUT! His SIERA is actually a ridiculous 1.75, while his K-BB% is nearly an insane 30%. Like Kluber, he’s getting killed by a sky high BABIP, though Carrasco’s is much less deserved. He, too, has yet to induce a pop-up, but his line drive rate isn’t nearly as high. Some may still be skeptical given that his amazing run last year came in fewer than 100 innings. If his owner in your league is one of those, take advantage and buy, buy, buy.

Patti (Josh’s Mom)

R.A. Dickey
Phil Hughes
Sonny Gray
Scott Kazmir
Anibal Sanchez
Collin McHugh
Michael Pineda
Chris Archer

Last week, I called Gray one of three pitchers you could actually sell high. After another strong start, the window remains open.

From a rates perspective, I’m a big fan of Kazmir. He’s off to a scintillating start and proving that his second half results last year were mostly just bad fortune. My concern, as well as likely yours as well, remains his body and innings. That risk of injury is seemingly always there and so I am hesitant to move him up.

Sanchez is sporting an ERA two full runs above his SIERA, making him a prime buy low candidate. However, he has become an extreme fly ball pitcher and his fastball velocity is down a tick. There’s also the risk of injury. So I’m leaving him here.

McHugh literally came out of nowhere last season to post a 3.14 SIERA and sub-3.00 ERA. He was one of the more difficult players to project given his short, but sketchy history. The early returns tell us he’s for real, and he’s even become an extreme ground baller! He’s averaging just about six innings a start, which needs to improve before I move him up a tier. But consider him at the peak ready to make the leap.

Even with his velocity down another tick, Pineda has been pretty amazing. A 32/2 K:BB ratio! And he has suddenly become an extreme groundballer. The shallower your league, the more valuable he is, as the injury risk is muted given the better replacement options.

Archer moves up a tier as he sits with a strikeout rate above 30%. His slider has gone from excellent to out of control, while his changeup’s SwStk% has nearly doubled. Oh, and he’s inducing grounders at almost a 60% clip. I have no idea what he has done to improve the effectiveness of those pitches, but he’s throwing significantly more strikes. That could be all there is to it, so we’ll see how long that lasts.

Gorbachenka (The Troll)

Drew Hutchison
Drew Smyly
Dallas Keuchel
Jose Quintana
Garrett Richards
Danny Salazar

Hutchison drops a tier. I hate to do it and seem like I’m overreacting to poor results. But, my projection actually called for a sub-4.00 ERA, which was essentially a breakout. The SwStk% on his fastball is curiously down significantly, which is obviously a problem when it’s his most thrown pitch. He induced a high rate of foul strikes last year, and those foul strikes have now come at a below league average clip. Of all the strike types, that’s the flakiest, so it’s no guarantee to rebound. One good performance could get his peripherals back in line, and he’s obviously been unlucky with a 59.9% LOB%. But the initial ranking may have been a bit too aggressive. If he turns things around in a hurry, I reserve the right to blame all of you for allowing me to crack under peer pressure!

Smyly has been real good since returning from the DL, but I want to see another healthy month before I move him up a tier. Richards was down in this tier due to his injury and now he’s back. But I’m keeping him here anyway until he provides some evidence that last year’s breakout wasn’t a complete fluke.

Salazar joins the rankings as he reclaims the rotation spot he should have had coming out of spring training. I was very tempted to be aggressive here and place him in the tier above, but he still needs to last into games longer and he’s also at risk of being bitten by the poor Indians defense bug.

Mike

Jered Weaver
Matt Shoemaker
Yordano Ventura
Rick Porcello
Jake Odorizzi
Chris Tillman
Taijuan Walker
CC Sabathia
Clay Buchholz
Trevor Bauer

Weaver drops two tiers! I had originally dropped him one, then I checked his player page and my eyes popped out when I saw his velocity. I knew it was down, didn’t realize it was just barely above 83 mph. That’s down three miles per hour from last year, which was already in scary territory! He’s struck out just 13 batters in 29.1 innings. I’m wondering if even this ranking is too optimistic. He may very well be toast if his velocity doesn’t improve. Would that average fastball velocity be the lowest for a non-knuckleball-throwing starter in decades?

I wasn’t too bullish on Shoemaker to begin with, but I wouldn’t give up on him yet. I’m typing this before his outing last night, but it’s basically been a BABIP and HR/FB rate issue, rather than a decline in skills. The high fly ball rate is a concern though.

Odorizzi has traded strikeouts for grounders so far and has posted spectacular results thank to not yet allowing a dinger. His SIERA is just above his mark last year though, so the overall skills package is just as solid. I was already assuming better luck would push his ERA below 4.00, but don’t think he’s ready to take an even larger step than his pre-season sleeper status suggested.

Sabathia is making me pull my hair out again. A 3.22 SIERA, but a 5.96 ERA! Yet again his HR/FB rate and BABIP are significantly inflated. It’s only been about 70 innings of this though, so we’re still in very small sample size stage. You have to think things will improve, though it’s looking more and more likely that he’s going to continue to be a SIERA underperformer.

Remember in the intro when I said I care not for results? Buchholz is a shining example. Despite a gruesome 5.76 ERA, he actually moves up a tier. That’s what a 2.79 SIERA and 28.5% strikeout rate does. He’s proving that at the very least, he’s healthy, and that’s always been a concern with Buchholz. A fantastic buy low candidate, especially in deep leagues.

Bauer jumps a tier as his strikeout stuff has come out to play. But his control has reverted back to bad, which make me contain my excitement. That said, I am a bit more confident in a real breakout given that strikeout rate as control is going to be easier to improve.

Liz

Wade Miley
Wei-Yin Chen
Bud Norris
James Paxton
Justin Masterson
C.J. Wilson
Colby Lewis

What the heck happened to Miley? He drops a tier since nothing has gone right. His velocity is fine, but he’s not throwing as many strikes or inducing swings and misses. Perhaps he’s hiding an injury? That’s always the knee-jerk reaction. I really liked him this year, despite his move into the American League, but he’s killing my Tout AL team!

I have nothing much to say about Norris other than how funny it is than in four starts, he has allowed eight and nine runs in two of those, alternated with just three runs.

Paxton has been fine from a skills perspective, but has been killed by an inflated HR/FB rate and suppressed LOB%. His velocity is down a notch, but it hasn’t hurt his strikeout ability…yet at least.

Josh

Jason Vargas
Shane Greene
Nathan Eovaldi
Jesse Hahn
Yovani Gallardo
Edinson Volquez
Danny Duffy
Drew Pomeranz
Joe Kelly

Boy did I jinx Greene or what?! Since I recommended selling him high, he has allowed 15 runs over two starts! Now that no more regression should be on the horizon, he remains a streaming option in 12-team mixers and solid member of an AL-Only staff.

Gallardo’s strikeout rate is back above 20%, but his velocity hasn’t rebounded and he’s in the American League, so I’m skeptical this is sustainable. If it lasts another month, I might change my tune and push him up a tier.

Edinson Volquez, control artist. Ready for this? Volquez currently ranks 19th among 138 starting pitchers in baseball in strike percentage! He’s doing that while inducing a SwStk% that would rank second highest of his career. Given his history, it’s obviously very difficult to believe this gargantuan change in skills is sustainable. But it’s worth keeping an eye on, especially given the fabulous defense he plays in front of.

Kelly joins the rankings, has enjoyed a fastball velocity spike and has swapped the usage of his curve and slider, so that the latter is his secondary pitch of choice. It has been fantastic. He has traded grounders for strikeouts, but that makes him more appealing to us fantasy leaguers.

Injured/Suspended

I’ve stopped bothering ranking injured pitchers. With return dates always up in the air and the chance for a setback, easier to just group them all together and revisit when they do make it back.

Hisashi Iwakuma
Justin Verlander
Alex Cobb
Masahiro Tanaka
Derek Holland
Ervin Santana