Sean Newcomb finally had his first bad start of the season and unsurprisingly it came against the Houston Astros. They are third in wOBA against lefties at .347 and also have the third-lowest strikeout rate at 17%, a tough combo for the 24-year old rookie. Newcomb has actually shown a reverse platoon this year so six of the eight batters coming from the right side wasn’t necessarily a warning sign. Being Astros was the warning sign, let’s be real.

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On Thursday for my American League starting pitching slot, I used my expected strikeout rate metric to determine which starters have the most strikeout rate upside given the components of the equation (strike percentage, along with swinging, looking, and foul strike rates). Today, I’ll look at the starters with strikeout rate downside hinted at by xK%, but expand my group of pitchers to both leagues.

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Today, I’ve got Quick Looks on Newcomb, Gonzales, and Gossett. Let’s start with the young lefty in Atlanta, one of the top pitching prospects in the game.

Sean Newcomb

For Newcomb, I watched his June 21st start against the Giants.

• He’s on the extreme first side of the pitching rubber and throws from a low 3/4 arm slot. This combination will make it tough for left-handed hitters to square him up but right-handed hitters should have a good view of the ball. This idea has not been born out yet, with lefties putting up a .400 BABIP against him.

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The Dodgers Julio Urias is done for the year, and probably most of next season, with a torn Anterior Capsule – a devastating shoulder injury. The anterior capsule is a combination of ligaments which provide stability to the shoulder. Have you ever heard someone state that they had “a frozen shoulder”? Well, frozen shoulders (or, adhesive capsulitis), is impingement of that same capsule, and it results in huge range of motion loss, and incredible discomfort. You can imagine how damage to that structure would be catastrophic to a pitcher.

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Over the last several weeks, I’ve scoured Baseball Prospectus’ PitchF/x leaderboards for the league’s underthrown pitches. We’ve covered two different pitch types each week starting with four-seam fastballs and sinkers in the first installment, cutters and curves in the second, and sliders and changeups last week. This week, we put it all together. Now that we’ve identified the most underthrown pitches, who should consider overhauling his entire pitch mix to make the most of his electric stuff?

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Earlier this year, I updated my pitcher expected strikeout rate metric, or xK%, with new coefficients. The equation uses a pitcher’s overall percentage of strikes thrown, as well as the breakdown between the types of strikes he generates — swinging, looking, and foul. We could use xK% over a smaller sample given that its denominator is pitches, rather than batters faces, so it likely stabilizes much more quickly.

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6/28/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

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Strategy Section: Discussing My SP Update (link to list)

• Must Start (3:00)
• Usually Start (1:17:00)
• Spot Start (2:07:30)

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Kevin Gausman is a total mess right now. His strikeout, walk, swinging strike, hit, groundball, and home run rates are all at career-worst levels. Just four of his 16 starts have been quality starts and he’s only gone 6+ innings in six starts. It’s been a nightmare. His splitter is still solid (though a bit worse than last year), but his fastball and breaking ball (it kinda morphs between a slider and curve, but generally sucks regardless) are both just getting smacked around.

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Yesterday, I listed the 20 pitchers with the largest gaps between their ERA and SIERA marks, with their ERA marks sitting significantly higher than their SIERA marks, suggesting serious potential for improvement moving forward. Today, I’ll list the pitchers on the other side of the coin, the 20 with ERA marks significantly lower than their SIERA marks, suggesting real potential for ERA regression.

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We’re nearing the midpoint of the season (wow has it come quickly!), so it’s finally time to check in on the starting pitchers whose ERA marks are significantly higher than their SIERA marks. Naturally, many on this list are bad, even after figuring in some improvement, but there are enough potentially good pitchers that would make for actual fantasy targets. So let’s discuss them. For completeness purposes, I’m listing the entire top 20, but will only discuss those that matter.

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