Pros & Cons: Jose Berrios

Jose Berrios was a heralded prospect coming up through the minors for the Minnesota Twins. The big expectations were unmet a year ago as he struggled mightily through his MLB debut. He managed just a paltry 5% K-BB rate en route to an 8.02 ERA and 1.87 WHIP in 58.3 innings of work. He admits to not being as mentally prepared as possible for the big leagues, something that plagues countless rookies and even many veterans over the course of the season. Pitching can be as mentally grinding as it is physically.

The heartening aspect of Berrios’ 2016 season is that he continued to excel in the minors. In 111.3 innings, he posted a 21% K-BB, 2.51 ERA, and 0.99 WHIP, finding consistent success even as he shuttled between Rochester and Minnesota (three stops in each). His success in the minors kept expectations high for the 23-year old right-hander. He didn’t break camp with the club, instead logging six strong starts at Triple-A Rochester (20% K-BB, 1.13 ERA, 0.81 WHIP in 39.7 IP) before his May 13th season debut.

I wrote him up on May 26th, three starts into a tremendous run that last nine starts with an 18% K-BB, 2.98 ERA, and 0.98 WHIP in 60.3 innings of work. Since then he’s hit a wall with just three quality starts over his last seven, racking up a 6.28 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 38.7 innings thanks in large part to a 8% K-BB, held down by a sinking strikeout rate (27% May, 24% June, 16% July, and 15% August). Outside of the shellacking at Houston (yes, only 2 of the 7 runs were earned, but he did also allow more baserunners than outs log at 7 to 5), I wasn’t aware of how much he struggling until his latest start against the Detroit. I’ll admit I lost track of him a bit, letting the luster of his first nine starts carryover a bit longer than it should’ve, but that’s why I figured it was time for a pros and cons on Berrios.

Pros:

• Major improvements from 2016
• Excellent nine-start run to open season
• Big fastball
• Good control
• Strong third time through

Cons:

• Platoon trouble
• Unreliable changeup
• Inconsistent curveball
• Struggles w/RISP – .877 OPS is 97th of 109 (min. 90 PA)

He’s obviously been much better than last year’s debut with virtually every meaningful metric showing improvement this year. He opened with a prolonged period of success so he knows his stuff works at the big league level. Berrios wins with that big fastball and while the command of it has wavered greatly, the velocity has maintained. At 93.4 mph, it’s the 35th highest out of 111 starters (min. 90 IP). He has only dipped below 93 mph three times this year and sat at 93.1 in Detroit on Saturday.

Berrios is a great example of the difference between command and control. His control is above average with a 7% BB rate, fueled by just a 3% BB rate on his secondary pitches. That ranks as the 14th-best out of 120 pitchers (min. 150 PA ending on non-fastballs). His OPS with the pitches is essentially average and his strikeout rate at 26% falls shy of the 29% average from that same group of 120 pitchers, but that’s the composite. In the last eight starts, the curve and change have allowed an .809 OPS as the opposition has gone from swinging at 47% of those two pitches to just 40% over his last eight. These two pitches just haven’t been as good lately, but more on them later.

His fastball has an average walk rate, even in the midst of the current eight-start run, but the .912 OPS since July 1st slots 72nd of 102 arms (min. 75 PA on fastballs) and highlights his inconsistent command. He was finding incredible success in the upper third of the zone with the fastball in those first nine starts (.432 OPS, 41% K, 37% K-BB in 56 PA), but he hasn’t come close to replicating it over these last eight (.697, 18%, 5% in 38 PA). The contact rate on upper third heaters has jumped from 63% to 81% while the swinging strike rate has dropped from 22% to 10%.

One of the driving forces behind Berrios’ surge was his ability to hold up throughout a start. In fact, even with the struggles lately, he still has his best OPS the third time through the lineup: .760 1st, .679 2nd, and .651 3rd. Of course, he’s not really making it to the third time as often in these last eight so that’s why the OPS has held pretty well. Berrios has 38 PA the third time through in his last eight (.820) after 71 in his first nine (.567). He holds the zone well throughout his starts and has the 11th-best BB rate the third time through at 5%. The fastball command issues have been prevalent deeper into outings during the struggles, as you might expect.

While a 68-point platoon split doesn’t jump out as especially problematic, we’ve seen a platoon issue develop with Berrios over the course of the season. It’s underscored by his 9% K-BB rate against them, well below his 18% mark against righties. The issues stem from an unreliable changeup. His has allowed the 107th-worst OPS among 190 pitchers (min. 100 thrown).

The changeup has only allowed a .194 AVG, but the damage is severe with a .290 ISO that slots as the 14th-highest among that same group. His 9% K rate with the pitch is well below the 22% average. He also has just a 9% swinging strike rate with it, also well below the average (17%). Over the last eight starts, the changeup has been pummeled by lefties for a 1.107 OPS, albeit in a whopping eight plate appearances (the .915 OPS on 50 fastball PA is the biggest issue, of course).

His curveball has been inconsistent and thus can’t be fully relied upon as an out pitch. Interestingly, it’s been better against lefties over his downturn (.473 OPS, 27% K since 7/1) compared to when he was successful (.792 OPS, 36% K through 6/26). Righties have gone the other way with a .539 OPS/40% K rate combo in his first nine starts, but just a .755 OPS/19% K rate combo over these last eight. All told, the opposition is swinging at the curve a lot less (from 47% to 41%) with waaay fewer chases and whiffs (chase -13%, whiff -4%) and his approach with pitch isn’t any different in terms of location.

Let’s take a look at good Berrios in Boston. He allowed a couple runs in the first and seventh innings, but threw five 2-hit innings with seven strikeouts in between and here’s some of that dominance:

A lot of his struggles over these last eight have been confined to disastrous innings. He allowed three of his five runs at KC in the fourth, all four of his runs at the Dodgers in the fourth, all five of his runs vs. Texas in the first, and five of his six runs at Detroit in the first. Here is a sampling his pitches not going so well:

Fastball:

Changeup:

Curveball:

I think because Berrios has the distinct halves of success and failure makes it feel worse than if the thrashings were sprinkled across the 17 starts. After all, he does still have strong starts within the last eight and even some weak starts folded into those first nine, but he’s clearly not the same guy we saw in May and June. For the long-term, I remain quite high on the 23-year old righty. He doesn’t bury himself with walks, he has a fastball capable of being the foundational pitch you need for consistent success in this league, and both secondary offerings have shown that they can be effective (though I think the changeup needs a lot of work).

For the remainder of the season, I’m still starting him more often than not and maybe looking to pickoff the tough spots against obviously strong opponents. After all, his worst starts in this run have been at Houston, the Dodgers, and Detroit as well as a home start against Texas. That’s three of the top seven offenses against righties and a Tigers team that can still rough up a young arm even with the departure of J.D. Martinez and the poor season from Miguel Cabrera. Remember, prospect growth isn’t linear so don’t forget about all the minor league success and glowing scouting reports on Berrios from just two months ago because of his recent struggles. Nothing we’ve seen since July 1st has me believing he can’t still achieve the frontline ceiling his talent portends.