Archive for Starting Pitchers

I started the Two Good Starts, Two Bad Starts column a few weeks back when I realized that I often begin to change my perception of a pitcher after a pair of consecutive starts that defy my expectations. It’s rarely a good idea to change your decision rule about starting or sitting a pitcher on the basis of two starts, but at least you can be more open to the possibility that the pitcher in question maybe isn’t as good or as bad as you thought.

In last week’s column, I raised the possibility that Wei-Yin Chen might be viable at some point in some deeper mixed leagues by drawing attention to a couple of good starts that were backed up by a rising whiff rate and increased fastball velocity. In his subsequent outing against the Nationals, his velocity remained higher than it had been, but he got just three swings-and-misses on his way to a seven-run shellacking over 4.1 innings. I’m still intrigued by Chen’s resurgence in velocity, but I’m glad I haven’t dedicated a roster spot to him yet.
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I released my July rankings last week, my fourth update of the year. Today, I want to look at the biggest movers since the very first run of rankings back in March when we ran the consensus lists. We’ll look at three groups of pitchers: those in the top 50 who didn’t even make March list and then the biggest risers and fallers for those who did make that original 162.

Let’s get started!

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As we push toward the All-Star break, it’s time to look at young arms and how their innings are tracking. I used last year’s total plus 25% for a rough estimate of what teams might be looking to use as their bar for a guy who they want to limit. Now just they because they might have enough innings “available” based on this calculation doesn’t mean the team won’t still look to limit them if they have health concerns. I think it’s fair to say that if they have about 85 innings or so left in the tank, then overwork won’t be a driving force behind limiting a pitcher in the second half.

• 85+ IP left isn’t a major concern
• 65-84 IP left are guys to watch
• <=64 IP left are probably in danger as they were probably injured in ‘17

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During last night’s chat, I got the usual “Rank these five pitchers….” questions. Similar names kept popping up and I felt I was using dated information. I decided to dive into a couple pitchers to see if my previous valuations should be adjusted.

Nathan Eovaldi

The 28-year-old righty has always been a disappointment with a mid-90s fastball and a sub-7 K/9 strikeout rate. After missing the 2017 season for Tommy John surgery, the Rays starter is putting up his best season ever with a 3.35 ERA with matching ERA estimators.

The reasons for the turnaround can be inferred from this simple graph.

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Coming into the 2018 season, it looked like Jordan Zimmermann was finished as a fantasy-relevant starting pitcher. He was entering his age-32 season, and he had essentially been a train wreck ever since he turned 30. In other words, I certainly didn’t expect to be sitting here in July 2018 recommending Zimmermann in basically any fantasy format.

After a strong first month in a Tigers uniform in 2016, Zimmermann unraveled entirely. As for that month of April, it wasn’t without its warning signs either — even though he pitched to a pristine 0.55 ERA in his first 33 innings as a Tiger, he just wasn’t missing many bats, as his 6.27 K/9 indicated. He was getting outs, but for a guy who recorded strikeout rates of 8.20 K/9 and 7.32 K/9 in his previous two seasons with the Nationals, that was a pretty steep drop — even for a guy moving from the National League to the American League.

As soon as the 2016 calendar turned to May, Zimmermann experienced a meltdown that lasted for about two full years:

• May-Sept 2016:
  • 72.1 IP, 6.84 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 5.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.6 HR/9
• 2017 Season:
  • 160 IP, 6.08 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 5.8 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.6 HR/9

He continued to allow way too many runs in April 2018 (5.81 ERA), but there were also some signs that he might finally be turning it back around after two years plagued by nagging injuries to his neck and back. He struck out 27 batters in 26.1 IP in April — which was the first time he averaged more than a strikeout per inning in any month since August 2015 — but when he hit the disabled list with shoulder discomfort in early May, it looked like he might be heading for another lost season in Detroit.

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7/8/18

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Fantasy Zombies

• Jordan Zimmermann (3:40)
• Anibal Sanchez (12:47)
• Jhoulys Chacin (23:33)

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I recently updated my Starting Pitcher ranks for July and as always, there was some difficult arms to place. Here are some thoughts on the tougher ranks:

#19 Patrick Corbin – After a velo spike to start the seasons (), Corbin has been sitting 89-91 over the last two months which was jarring to see as a velo dip can portend trouble, but he’s posted a 3.50 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in that time with ERA indicators that like him even more (2.82 FIP). He has a 21% K-BB rate during these 12 starts and appears to be just fine with the lowered velo. Since he’s more two-seam/sinker, the lower velo might actually be an aid in terms of movement. I eventually left him in his top-20 spot because he hasn’t done anything to be removed.

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It’s time for my latest computer based pitching prospects. In my last article, there was some confusion on how the rankings are to be used. Here’s a breakdown of what the rankings are and aren’t.

Are

• A supplement to Eric’s and Kiley’s prospect rankings. This set utilizes stats, age, role, and some regression to find potential overlooked prospects before they start showing up on major prospect lists.

Aren’t

• A complete list of every prospect. Some will be missed. I don’t care as I’m digging for one-offs. The most likely reason for not being on the list is they haven’t performed, not played much (major factor), or have graduated to the majors. Major league results are also not included.
• The order doesn’t matter at all, at least to me. Why one person is #8 over some guy at #14 compared to other lists is irrelevant. These top prospects are already owned in most leagues. I feel the order only matters to desperate fan bases looking for some much-needed hope.

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While HR/FB rate has dropped back to its 2016 elevated level after a final spike in 2017, this season’s 12.6% mark still ranks third going back to 2002. Also keep in mind that home run rates typically rise into the summer, so this mark will likely jump back above 2016. Given the frequency of fly balls leaving the yard, it’s more important than ever that pitchers keep the ball on the ground. Some are doing that more often this season, while others are not. Let’s check in on both sides of the coin.

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I can’t believe it’s already July. Pitching rotations across the league have experienced that unavoidable attrition that comes with the season, but that has created opportunities for some newcomers to shine. I think some of the toughest analysis in fantasy baseball is assessing those newcomers on the fly. We know it’s going to be a short sample prone to volatility, but are they this year’s version of 2017 Luis Castillo (3.12 ERA, 18% K-BB in 89 IP) or Sean Newcomb (1.48 ERA in first 4 starts; 5.23 in the 15 after that start). Interesting how the paths of those two guys diverged in 2018, by the way.

I think there are a lot of fun names to discuss as things really open up as early as 25 or so. I’ve got 124 guys ranked for July and then the injured guys on their own.

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