Pitcher Spotlight: Put-away Pitches

Few things are more frustrating in fantasy baseball than watching your pitcher struggle to put hitters away. He consistently gets ahead in the count and into two-strike situations, but regularly fail to finish. This is obviously even more crucial with runners on.

This is a particular struggle of youngsters if only because you will eventually be pushed to the bullpen or weeded out entirely if you don’t eventually learn to get outs with two strikes. When a young arm shows that ability early on – I say “ability”, but it’s usually a single pitch doing the heavy lifting so maybe it’s better stated as the ability to execute their out pitch – it curbs the prevalence of those disaster outings that can tank an ERA.

Joe Ross in 2015 has the best two-strike OPS of the 2014-2016 seasons at .269, powered by his slider that yielded a .219 OPS and 52% K rate in 107 PA. Every one of Jose Fernandez’s pitches contributed to a .273 OPS and 57% K rate in 124 two-strike PA back in 2014, but his breaking stuff was especially insane: .210 OPS, 67% K rate in 78 PA with the curve and slider. Other gems of the last three seasons before this year include:

• Jake Arrieta’s 2015 fastball (.263 OPS, 50% K)
• Jon Lester’s 2016 cutter has been the best by AVG (.110), OPS (.331), and K (48%) among those with at least 100 two-strike PA
• Junior Guerra’s 2016 splitter was obscene with a .099 AVG/56% combo, but…
• Jeff Samardzija’s 2014 splitter allowed just a .085 AVG with a 52% K
• Masahiro Tanaka has the 1st (2016) and 3rd (2014) splitter OPS
• If you thought Stephen Strasburg had an unfair changeup in 2014 with a .073 AVG, .231 OPS, and 64% K in 115 PA, then…
• Felix Hernandez’s will really blow you away as he allowed .060 AVG with a 60% K in 212 PA in that same season
• Four sliders tallied at 65% or better in at least 100 PA, but Fernandez’s 2016 offering takes the crown at 67% in 224 PA
• Francisco Liriano’s 2015 slider held the opposition to an .063 AVG and 62% K rate in 216 PA
• Corey Kluber’s 2014 (.064) and 2016 (.075) curveballs unsurprisingly have the best AVG in 192 and 164 PA, respectively
• The 2014 offering paced the league’s sliders with a 66% K and the 2016 one finished sixth (63%)
• Don’t sleep on Lance McCullers’ 2016 slider: .076 AVG, .219 OPS, and 64% K

Alright, let’s get to this year’s pitches!

FASTBALL

Chris Sale’s fastball has been bananas this year. It’s allowing a .107 AVG (3rd), .299 OPS (1st), 61% K (1st), and 3% BB (1st) in 222 PA (1st). It’s not out of bounds to suggest it’s been the best pitch in baseball this year. It’s either that or Corey Kluber’s curveball for me. In his August 13th start at the Yankees, he logged 12 strikeouts – ALL ON THE FASTBALL!

He is one of four pitchers with at least 10 strikeouts via the fastball in a single game: Taijuan Walker, Robbie Ray, and Jacob deGrom all logged 10 on the dot. Chris Archer is known for his slider (and it’s a two-strike beast, too), but don’t sleep on his heater: .092/.160/.172 and 53% K rate in 94 PA. Other notables include Dinelson Lamet (.080 AVG, 47% K in 60 PA), Rich Hill (.113 AVG, 59% K in 88 PA), and the aforementioned deGrom. His .176 AVG on two-strike heaters is a little high compared to the others, but the volume (201 PA – 5th-most) and K rate (58% – 3rd-best) are there.

SLIDER

Mike Clevinger’s .043 AVG on two-strike sliders is easily pacing the league, though he is exactly at the low end of the qualifying threshold (50 PA) while teammate Carlos Carrasco is allowing just an .071 AVG with a 70% K rate in 104 PA with his slidepiece. Max Scherzer and Dinelson Lamet are both toting a .072 AVG on theirs with Scherzer notching a 65% K rate in 144 PA while Lamet is at 58% in 116 PA.

Lamet’s been mentioned in both sections so far, highlight how great he can be when he’s on. He still has just a 4.84 ERA because he doesn’t always get to two strikes thanks to his inconsistent fastball. His fastball has allowed a 1.460 OPS in hitter’s counts over 49 PA, ranking 101st among 112 pitchers (dropped the min. PA to 49 to get Lamet in there). Days like June 17th in Milwaukee breed hope in Lamet. He went 6 IP/3 ER with 12 Ks, all on sliders (9) and fastballs (3). MLB.com has ‘em all in 12 seconds:

CHANGEUP

I mentioned Stephen Strasburg’s 2014 changeup as a beast earlier, but it’s been every bit as good this year with a .106 AVG and 63% K rate in 70 PA. Felix Hernandez’s is also awesome again at .088 AVG and 47% K in 64 PA. I want to highlight Luis Castillo’s changeup here. He doesn’t quite have the volume of some of the other guys at the top, but his .041 AVG in 55 PA is easily the best on the year and the 55% K rate if fourth-best.

The changeup has been a key driver to Jason Vargas’s success with an .085 AVG (3rd-best) in 138 PA (2nd-most). Strikeouts aren’t really his game so it’s not too surprising that his 41% K rate with the changeup is just below the 43% league average (min. 50 PA).

SCHERZER

Let’s take a brief interlude to acknowledge Max Scherzer on his own. Virtually every one of his pitches is near the top of these two-strike lists:

• Fastball – .149/.216/.227, 47% K in 153 PA
• Slider – .072/.104/.101, 65% K in 144 PA
• Changeup – .068/.171/.110, 56% K in 82 PA
• Curveball – .056/.150/.111, 40% K in 20 PA

Jeez, he’s insane! All told, he’s allowing a .100/.163/.151 line with a 55% K rate in 399 two-strike PA. Here are a couple of his strikeout compilations courtesy of MLB.com:

CURVEBALL

This could almost be a Corey Kluber section, but we’ll mention some others. His .066 AVG, .211 OPS, and 69% K rate are all league-bests in 153 PA which ranks as third-most. It’s been the key driver behind his rise to acedom with a 22 or better pitch value in three of his last four seasons and a 17 in the fourth of those seasons. He notched a season-high 14 strikeouts in gem against the Toronto Blue Jays on July 23rd, 12 of them were with the curve:

You could get fired for watching this sexiness even in workplaces with lax internet rules ?

Matt Davidson became intimately familiar with the pitch on July 29th:

Davidson’s nine swings-and-misses at Kluber’s curveball are most on the season and include eight chases.

Trevor Cahill’s curve was a key factor behind his breakthrough this year. It allowed an .074 AVG with a 56% K rate in 57 two-strike PA. His 4.6 pitch value with the curve is easily his career-best and second straight season of positive value. It started to abandon him with KC, though. It had a -1.5 pitch value in three starts before his injury. In fact, it started going south in early-July. After accounting for at least four strikeouts in five of his first seven starts, it logged three total in his six prior to his current DL stint.

It’s a beast when it’s on…

…but a non-competitive pitch since joining KC, either looping out of the zone or spiking into the ground:

TAKEAWAYS

Unsurprisingly, many of the best guys in two-strike performance are the very best pitchers in baseball this year: Scherzer, Sale, Kluber, Sonny Gray, Chase Anderson, Madison Bumgarner, and James Paxton are all in the Top 10 of OPS (min. 150 PA). Seeing Lamet and Clevinger at 3rd and 4th, respectively, made sense, too. When they are at their best, they put hitters away like frontliners thanks to multiple nasty pitches. When they struggle, they don’t even get to two-strike situations as consistently to put that dazzling stuff on display.

I’m not sure it’s inherently a predictor of future success. In fact, I feel rather strongly that it’s not, but I think it speaks to the effectiveness of quality stuff. We can look at velo readings and break patterns on pitches, but if they aren’t being effectively deployed, then we’re just left praying on potential. Seeing young arms get ahead and stay ahead in encouraging.

Lance McCullers was 5th in two-strike OPS last year at .375 (min. 100 PA) while Aaron Nola was 6th (.386), Alex Wood was 17th (.422), and Carlos Rodon was 19th (.431). They were mixed in with the stars you’d expect to see like Clayton Kershaw (1st), Yu Darvish (3rd), Corey Kluber (4th), Max Scherzer (10th), Chris Sale (11th), and Justin Verlander (12th). Rich Hill’s name might not carry the same weight as those others, but he’s been right there with them since the end of 2015. He slotted 2nd last year and while he’s only 61st for the season this year, he’s up at 18th over his last 10 starts.

Rodon is even better this year .390, good for 12th. Another favorite is Zack Godley, who doesn’t jump off the page 44th in OPS at .462, but his 50% K rate is 16th. Brad Peacock has .139 AVG and 51% K combo, slotting 24th and 12th, respectively.

On the small sample side of things:

• Doug Fister at 7th with a .365 OPS in 84 PA
• Edwin Jackson at 11th with .386 OPS in 73 PA
• Noah Syndergaard was unsurprisingly 4th in OPS (.331) and 9th in K% (52%)
• Mike Montgomery and Jakob Junis both have .146 AVG in 93 two-strike PA

It may seem obvious, but when you see a pitcher struggling (it doesn’t have to be a young arm, of course, but this is usually a hurdle that younger arms take time to clear), keep a close eye on those two-strike plate appearances. Are they being extended? Is he finishing them off? If there’s damage, is it substantial or stringing together bloop hits? So often a pitcher’s start hinges on just how a handful of pitches pan out. That’s why boxscore scouting by itself will always fall short in assessing exactly how the start went, even the extended boxes that offer whiff and batted ball info.

Who’s got your favorite put-away pitch?