2018 Innings Limits Report

As we push toward the All-Star break, it’s time to look at young arms and how their innings are tracking. I used last year’s total plus 25% for a rough estimate of what teams might be looking to use as their bar for a guy who they want to limit. Now just they because they might have enough innings “available” based on this calculation doesn’t mean the team won’t still look to limit them if they have health concerns. I think it’s fair to say that if they have about 85 innings or so left in the tank, then overwork won’t be a driving force behind limiting a pitcher in the second half.

  • 85+ IP left isn’t a major concern
  • 65-84 IP left are guys to watch
  • <=64 IP left are probably in danger as they were probably injured in ‘17

85+ IP Left
Player Age 2017 MLB* 2017 Minors 2017 Total 2018 MLB 2018 Minors 2018 Total 2017 total +25% IP Left
Yonny Chirinos 24 0 168 168 26 24 50 210 160
Michael Soroka 20 0 154 154 25 27 52 193 140
Luis Severino 24 209 0 209 123 0 123 261 138
Jake Faria 24 87 59 146 47 0 47 183 135
Lucas Giolito 23 45 129 174 97 0 97 218 121
Jose Berrios 24 146 40 186 114 0 114 233 118
German Marquez 23 162 10 172 97 0 97 215 118
Nick Pivetta 25 133 32 165 89 0 89 206 117
Dylan Bundy 25 170 0 170 99 0 99 213 113
Luis Castillo 25 89 80 169 98 0 98 211 113
Joey Lucchesi 25 4 139 143 63 4 67 179 112
Chad Kuhl 25 157 0 157 85 0 85 196 111
Jack Flaherty 22 21 149 170 70 32 102 213 111
Jakob Junis 25 98 71 169 101 0 101 211 110
Tyler Mahle 23 20 144 164 98 0 98 205 107
Aaron Nola 25 168 10 178 116 0 116 223 107
Reynaldo Lopez 24 48 121 169 105 0 105 211 106
Shane Bieber 23 0 173 173 36 77 113 216 103
Blake Snell 25 129 44 173 116 0 116 216 100
Michael Fulmer 25 165 0 165 107 0 107 206 99
Jaime Barria 21 0 142 142 61 18 79 178 99
Sean Newcomb 25 100 58 158 99 0 99 198 98
Eduardo Rodriguez 25 137 13 150 93 0 93 188 94
Ryan Borucki 24 0 150 150 20 77 97 188 91
Trevor Richards 25 0 146 146 56 39 95 183 87
Joe Musgrove 25 109 7 116 40 18 58 145 87
Kyle Freeland 25 156 0 156 110 0 110 195 85
*includes playoffs

I know y’all are breathing easy at seeing that Giolito has enough innings to make it to the finish line! There are a several pivotal arms on this list who you shouldn’t have to worry about over the second half. Only Severino, Nola, Newcomb, Rodriguez, and maybe Fulmer if he’s traded to a contender have to worry about an October inning reserve and they should all have enough. Newcomb and Rodriguez would probably exceed the +25% over last year, but not to any significant level.

65-84 IP Left
Player Age 2017 MLB* 2017 Minors 2017 Total 2018 MLB 2018 Minors 2018 Total 2017 total +25% IP Left
Domingo German 25 14 111 125 74 0 74 156 82
Andrew Suarez 25 0 156 156 78 40 118 195 77
Lance McCullers Jr. 25 140 8 148 108 0 108 185 77
Luke Weaver 24 60 78 138 97 0 97 173 76
Sal Romano 24 87 49 136 95 0 95 170 75
Eric Lauer 23 0 123 123 67 18 85 154 69
Zach Eflin 24 64 55 119 63 20 83 149 66
Fernando Romero 23 0 125 125 51 40 91 156 65
*includes playoffs

We’ve got some concern for these gents. McCullers is the only lockdown all formats guy and his health track record already built in the concern. It will always be part of his profile until he logs a couple full seasons (at least 162 IP so they’re qualified for rate stat leaderboards). I could see a couple skips through the rotation by Houston and maybe insert Brad Peacock or Collin McHugh for a spot start (or perhaps a tandem start with both going 3-4 IP).

Weaver’s fantasy managers would probably like to see his innings limited so their team ERAs improve. German could be managed a bit, but won’t be a part of their playoff rotation anyway (barring a major skills surge) so they shouldn’t have to curb his innings too much. They can build in some breathers when Loaisiga is healthy or if they add options via the trade market. But he also has a 5.06 ERA and isn’t a major part of your fantasy rotation anyway, so there’s no need to panic.

64 or Fewer IP Left
Player Age 2017 MLB* 2017 Minors 2017 Total 2018 MLB 2018 Minors 2018 Total 2017 total +25% IP Left
Freddy Peralta 22 0 120 120 33 59 92 150 58
Walker Buehler 23 9 89 98 52 16 68 123 54
Carlos Rodon 25 69 17 86 35 18 53 108 54
Daniel Mengden 25 43 46 89 90 0 90 111 21
Frankie Montas 25 32 29 61 42 41 83 76 -7
Noah Syndergaard 25 30 3 33 64 0 64 41 -23
Aaron Sanchez 25 36 8 44 79 0 79 55 -24
Jonathan Loaisiga 23 0 44 44 63 45 108 55 -53
*includes playoffs

This is the danger zone! Some guys have already exceeding their 2017 total. Let’s address Thor and Sanchez first because they’re both essentially veterans with full MLB seasons on their ledger back in 2016 and thus shouldn’t have to be super-limited. That said, they’re both on the DL with finger injuries so they’re already holding their innings back. Both are on non-contending teams, too, so if they were to come back healthy and start pushing their innings, they’d like get a skip or two.

Peralta and Buehler have both been key acquisitions this fantasy season so the fact that they’re very unlikely to reach the finish line means you’ll have to make plans, especially in H2H leagues. Buehler’s rib injury earned him an unplanned break, but the Dodgers will no doubt curate his innings carefully the rest of the way.

If y’all see any notes on anyone specifically facing an innings limit, please put it in the comments. I’ll probably do a mid-August update.

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Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. He is the purveyor of the SP Guide (on hiatus for '17). Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer, on Snapchat at psporer, and on Twitch at psporer24.

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Anon
Member
Anon

In addition to controlling his IP with his current DL stint, the Dodgers are also controlling Buehler’s IP with pretty strict pitch counts. He hasn’t topped 97 pitches yet and only once over 94 pitches. Only his overall excellence has allowed him to throw as many IP as he has already. I actually see it as being a problem as there are probably going to be some games where he gets yanked in the 5th and not qualifying for a win