2018 Innings Limits Report

As we push toward the All-Star break, it’s time to look at young arms and how their innings are tracking. I used last year’s total plus 25% for a rough estimate of what teams might be looking to use as their bar for a guy who they want to limit. Now just they because they might have enough innings “available” based on this calculation doesn’t mean the team won’t still look to limit them if they have health concerns. I think it’s fair to say that if they have about 85 innings or so left in the tank, then overwork won’t be a driving force behind limiting a pitcher in the second half.

• 85+ IP left isn’t a major concern
• 65-84 IP left are guys to watch
• <=64 IP left are probably in danger as they were probably injured in ‘17

I know y’all are breathing easy at seeing that Giolito has enough innings to make it to the finish line! There are a several pivotal arms on this list who you shouldn’t have to worry about over the second half. Only Severino, Nola, Newcomb, Rodriguez, and maybe Fulmer if he’s traded to a contender have to worry about an October inning reserve and they should all have enough. Newcomb and Rodriguez would probably exceed the +25% over last year, but not to any significant level.

We’ve got some concern for these gents. McCullers is the only lockdown all formats guy and his health track record already built in the concern. It will always be part of his profile until he logs a couple full seasons (at least 162 IP so they’re qualified for rate stat leaderboards). I could see a couple skips through the rotation by Houston and maybe insert Brad Peacock or Collin McHugh for a spot start (or perhaps a tandem start with both going 3-4 IP).

Weaver’s fantasy managers would probably like to see his innings limited so their team ERAs improve. German could be managed a bit, but won’t be a part of their playoff rotation anyway (barring a major skills surge) so they shouldn’t have to curb his innings too much. They can build in some breathers when Loaisiga is healthy or if they add options via the trade market. But he also has a 5.06 ERA and isn’t a major part of your fantasy rotation anyway, so there’s no need to panic.

This is the danger zone! Some guys have already exceeding their 2017 total. Let’s address Thor and Sanchez first because they’re both essentially veterans with full MLB seasons on their ledger back in 2016 and thus shouldn’t have to be super-limited. That said, they’re both on the DL with finger injuries so they’re already holding their innings back. Both are on non-contending teams, too, so if they were to come back healthy and start pushing their innings, they’d like get a skip or two.

Peralta and Buehler have both been key acquisitions this fantasy season so the fact that they’re very unlikely to reach the finish line means you’ll have to make plans, especially in H2H leagues. Buehler’s rib injury earned him an unplanned break, but the Dodgers will no doubt curate his innings carefully the rest of the way.

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If y’all see any notes on anyone specifically facing an innings limit, please put it in the comments. I’ll probably do a mid-August update.