July Starting Pitcher Rankings

I can’t believe it’s already July. Pitching rotations across the league have experienced that unavoidable attrition that comes with the season, but that has created opportunities for some newcomers to shine. I think some of the toughest analysis in fantasy baseball is assessing those newcomers on the fly. We know it’s going to be a short sample prone to volatility, but are they this year’s version of 2017 Luis Castillo (3.12 ERA, 18% K-BB in 89 IP) or Sean Newcomb (1.48 ERA in first 4 starts; 5.23 in the 15 after that start). Interesting how the paths of those two guys diverged in 2018, by the way.

I think there are a lot of fun names to discuss as things really open up as early as 25 or so. I’ve got 124 guys ranked for July and then the injured guys on their own.

• March rankings
• Early-May rankings
• Mid-May rankings
• June rankings

The tiers are as follows:

#1s (12 SPs) – The true aces of fantasy baseball.

Must Start (17 SPs) – Should be pretty obvious, but these are the guys who always start. Again, it isn’t just the very best guys. There are second and third tier arms in terms of market value that I’d start every time out. They don’t have an obvious split or weakness that would give you a better chance at picking off their poor starts. Some of them are “No Coors Field”-types, but it’s predominantly set it and forget it.

Usually Start (16 SPs) – If “No Coors Field” is 30% with the MS group, it’s more like 60-70% with this group. You need to find a reason to sit them right now in most formats. You might feel like you can spot them properly, but we’re just not that precise in identifying when a solid arm will falter. These guys are good enough to thwart any opponent even on something less than their best day or they could get smacked by a weaker opponent. If you’re rostering them, you should probably be starting them.

Spot Start (S-Shallow, D-Deep) (34 Shallow, 20 Deep SPs) – Flawed talents. A lot of these guys are on the cusp of or have been in the Usually Start tier, but currently you’re looking to curate their starts a bit where you can. These guys might also be US tier arms here temporarily. Pay very close attention to gamelogs of pitchers, get a feel for how they arrived at their bottom line numbers. Not all ERAs are created equally and that’s why it’s not a gauge for future production, especially in small samples. I decided to split the group a bit as sort of a way to identify upward or downward mobility for these guys. The shallow ones are a bit more talented and/or running hot so we’re maybe keeping a closer eye on them.

Could Start (25 SPs) – I know many of you are dealing with some brutal pitching staff conditions right now after drafting a rotation you thought would be a strength, so you might find yourself in this tier a little more than you’d like. There is some talent to be plucked and the right two-start week could really set you up. This is essentially the Spot Star tier for single leagues or super-deep mixers (16+ teams).

Injured/Minors (40 SPs) – I find it hard/worthless to rank injured or minor league guys. I just think the outlook on injured players varies so much person-to-person that you can’t really use an injured player’s ranking for anything. I will identify the tier I’d put the injured guy in when healthy (or called up), though.

Please leave your questions and comments below!

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