Fatigue units attempt to physiologically represent the workloads pitchers face. This includes velocity, days of rest, pitches per inning, and even the pace they pitch. Pitchers with extreme workloads were 2.7x more likely to have Tommy John surgery when compared to pitchers with moderate workloads. Who has worked the hardest in 2017?
Here are my thoughts on some lowly owned pitchers throwing tomorrow (<10% in Yahoo! leagues).
Sean Newcomb (9% owned) vs. Mets (Rafael Montero)
Why not? He’s what streaming is about, strikeouts and maybe a Win. He has a 9.4 K/9 on the season with 11.6 K/9 in AAA. He’s facing a beatable Mets team with Montero on the mound. While he’ll walk more than a batter every other inning inflating the owner’s WHIP and ERA, owners know these lowly guys have some negative traits. At least Newcomb as some positive ones, too.
After the feedback from yesterday’s post on low ownership starters, I may continue this series until the season’s end. All these pitchers featured are owned in less than 10% of Yahoo! leagues.
Additionally, I’ve added the opposing team’s strikeout rate for reference. The league average is 21.6%.
Chad Bettis (5% owned) vs Arizona (Zack Godley, 23.9% K%))
After returning from beating cancer, Bettis is not throwing his best. His fastball velocity is down ~2 mph from last season (91.7 mph to 89.8 mph). The velocity loss could explain why his home run rate (2.1 HR/9) is at a career high.
Besides giving up a ton of home runs, the velocity loss has pushed his strikeout rate (6.0 K/9) to a career low. One favorable aspect is a career low walk rate (1.3 BB/9). Pulling the preceding data points together, he’s a below average starter with little chance for strikeout and ERA help (WHIP could be OK with the low number of walks).
The Rockies are trying to secure a Wild Card spot and that is what Bettis is now, a chance for a Win. Not much else.
Daniel Gossett (1% owned) at Red Sox (Drew Pomeranz, 19.2% K%) Read the rest of this entry »
It’s that time of year when teams will be churning through starting pitchers hope to improve their Strikeout and Win totals. Here are my thoughts on some lowly owned guys (under 10% owned):
Buck Farmer (1% Yahoo) at Cleveland (vs. Mike Clevinger)
Just looking on the surface, I would say roll with Farmer and collect some strikeouts (8.9 K/9) and take an ERA hit. The problem is that those strikeouts came early in the season. In his major-league stint in June, he posted 11.2 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9. Since returning, those numbers are 5.9 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9. There’s no guarantee his strikeouts will return.
Additionally, his flyball nature (48% FB%) has pushed his home run rate up to 1.7 HR/9. The home runs have inflated his ERA up to 6.32 with his ERA estimators hovering around five.
With Cleveland hitting on all cylinders right now, the Win is unlikely. With little chance for the Win and strikeouts, I would pass on him. Read the rest of this entry »
• The 24-year-old, 5’9 lefty throws straight to home (no weird angles) from ¾ arm slot. I watched his last start from September 6th when he faced the Nationals.
• Fastball: 88-92 mph and it usually had a late dip. A few other times it had as much rise as a normal four-seamer. Looking at the pitch information, it seems to be just one pitch considering the spin axis. One possible explanation is that he lost fastball velocity as the game went on.
As the season winds down, here are two pitchers who owners may want to consider as options as other starters get shut down.
Over the last year or so, I haven’t been kind to Lucas Giolito. In four starts major league starts last season, he issued more walks (5.1 BB/9) than strikeouts (4.6 K/9). His fastball velocity dropped from the high to the low 90’s. He was a top ten prospect coming into the 2016 season but his stock dropped to the point where his 2017 prospect rankings were closer to 50th overall.
It’s the final month of the season and every pitching matchup holds extra weight. Maybe one of your regular arms is slated pitch in Coors and in Arlington or you’re in need of an extra few starts from now through September 14th. Over at my site Pitcher List, I helped tackle this question by outlining the Top 100 Starters for the rest of the season according to their ROS schedules, providing estimations for each starter’s schedule from now until the end of the year. Instead of focusing on the entire month of September, here we’re going to take a look at ten lesser owned arms that could help you later this week or find themselves in good matchups for the next round:
Note: Owned rates are according to ESPN Leagues.
Kyle Gibson (@KCR, SDP) – 8.7% owned
You may be surprised to see Gibson here. I’m surprised to see Gibson here. His career 6.17 K/9, 3.20 BB/9, and 4.73 ERA have secured him a comfortable spot on the third page of your waiver wire for ages, but in his last three starts, Gibson has been a new man, sporting a 1.37 ERA, 9.15 K/9, and 0.92 BB/9. His whiff rates have jumped to 13.9% in those starts after a near 9.0% prior and given he’s facing the paltry lineups of the Royals and Padres next, he’s worth a look for your squad.
A quick look at some August standouts and how likely they are to be useful for the September stretch run:
Luke Weaver | Cardinals – 1.71 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 34% K, 27% K-BB in 21 IP
The 23-year old right’s emergence in August might’ve facilitated the trade of Mike Leake to Seattle on Wednesday. Weaver has fanned 10 in both of his last two starts thanks in large part to a 34% K rate with both his fastball and changeup. After 119.3 IP last year and 124.7 two years ago, he shouldn’t have issues making it to the finish line this year with 106.7 under his belt so far.
Some quick thoughts on a pair of AL East arms who threw on Monday:
Pomeranz Soaring Despite An Interesting Flaw
It wasn’t Drew Pomeranz’s best effort, but he managed a baseline quality start and wiggled out trouble that a 2.00 WHIP would normally lead allowing him to hand a lead to the bullpen after the Red Sox jumped the Jays for four in the seventh. I don’t hear many Red Sox fans clamoring for Anderson Espinoza these days (the return for Pomy last summer) as Pomeranz has been the team’s second-best starter behind Chris Sale this year.
Pitchers who lose velocity early in the season get noticed immediately and get an “injury” or “something’s wrong” label. This late in the season, velocity changes can come in as noise as pitchers have 20 games of good numbers to even out the results. Here are a few pitchers seeing a recent drop in their velocity whose owners might not have noticed.