Fresh for the Playoffs – Pre-Playoff Fatigue Units

by Mike Sonne

September 15, 2017

Fatigue units attempt to physiologically represent the workloads pitchers face. This includes velocity, days of rest, pitches per inning, and even the pace they pitch. Pitchers with extreme workloads were 2.7x more likely to have Tommy John surgery when compared to pitchers with moderate workloads. Who has worked the hardest in 2017?

Starting Pitchers

Starting Pitcher Workloads

	Name	Pitch Count	Inning Appearances	Games	Fatigue Units	Days Between	4+ Days Rest	1-3 Days Rest
1	Chris Sale	3000	190	28	18.91	5.81	28	0
2	Carlos Martinez	2827	188	29	18.08	5.71	29	0
3	Justin Verlander	3222	191	30	17.57	5.55	30	0
4	Luis Severino	2717	170	27	17.49	5.96	27	0
5	Jacob deGrom	2956	183	29	17.14	5.64	29	0
6	Ervin Santana	2782	186	28	16.89	5.85	28	0
7	Gerrit Cole	2880	172	29	16.72	5.79	29	0
8	Trevor Bauer	2627	155	27	16.19	5.96	25	2
9	Patrick Corbin	2745	177	29	16.09	5.61	29	0
10	Jose Urena	2452	149	30	16.04	5.28	26	4
11	Gio Gonzalez	2959	182	28	15.98	5.89	28	0
12	Jeff Samardzija	2878	184	28	15.98	5.78	28	0
13	Mike Foltynewicz	2693	150	28	15.95	5.70	27	1
14	Lance Lynn	2936	176	30	15.86	5.48	30	0
15	Max Scherzer	2731	175	27	15.80	5.92	27	0
16	Rick Porcello	3123	183	30	15.79	5.52	30	0
17	Kevin Gausman	2836	158	29	15.57	5.61	29	0
18	Corey Kluber	2642	184	26	15.46	6.48	26	0
19	Yu Darvish	2760	170	28	15.38	5.85	28	0
20	Marcus Stroman	2775	174	29	15.37	5.54	29	0

Chris Sale is leading the way for MLB starters in 2017. His 107.14 pitches per game is second overall (behind Justin Verlander’s 107.4 ppg, amongst those who have started more than 15 games). When you’re this good at striking hitters out, you throw gas, and your body is made of some space age alien-spider hybrid material, why not burn both ends of the infinite candle?

A good example of the utility of fatigue units comes from looking at Cleveland ace Corey Kluber. Kluber sits 10th in the league in innings pitched, third in K/9, but his fatigue units sit at 18th for all starting pitchers. Currently, both Kluber and Gio Gonzalez have thrown 184.2 innings, but Gio has a higher workoad. This is because Kluber is a ruthlessly efficient strike throwing terminator. He averages 14.36 pitches per inning, compared to the 16.26 that Gio throws. Overall, Kluber has thrown 2657 pitches, compared to 3058 for Gio Gonzalez. Innings pitched definitely do not tell the entire story.

From a keeper perspective, a few interesting names show up. Luis Severino is sitting in 4th with 17.49 FUs on the season (an 94th %ile workload). This is his third straight season of high workload seasons – which is encouraging. What you’re getting out of Luis on this Yankees team looks to be fairly projectable over the next few seasons, meaning he’ll continue to be a great source of Wins and K’s for your fantasy teams. Trevor Bauer is a similar story – marred by some rough patches, he is now putting up his fourth straight 90%ile workload season. When he goes through stretches like you’re currently seeing, it’s tough to not acknowledge how good the Stuff is. Tolerant of high workloads, great stuff, and lots of strikeouts – if the ERA can stabilize, he’s a stalwart moving forward.

Relief Pitchers

Relief Pitcher Workloads

	Name	Pitch Count	Inning Appearances	Games	Fatigue Units	Days Between	4+ Days Rest	1-3 Days Rest	Back to Back
1	Edwin Diaz	1053	67	60	19.96	2.64	11	29	20
2	Felipe Rivero	1047	78	65	19.63	2.52	5	41	19
3	Peter Moylan	796	87	70	19.42	2.35	7	37	26
4	Mychal Givens	1169	89	61	19.04	2.70	6	44	11
5	Bryan Shaw	1034	87	67	19.03	2.39	4	44	19
6	Anthony Swarzak	1083	89	59	18.93	2.64	7	35	17
7	Ryan Tepera	1168	87	65	18.13	2.45	4	46	15
8	Corey Knebel	1163	71	66	17.68	2.49	9	37	20
9	Dan Jennings	963	99	70	17.60	2.30	4	48	18
10	Michael Lorenzen	1165	80	59	17.44	2.74	6	44	9
11	Jacob Barnes	1067	70	63	17.20	2.60	7	38	18
12	Chris Devenski	1157	88	56	17.12	2.85	7	40	9
13	Juan Nicasio	1042	75	67	17.11	2.41	6	42	19
14	Dellin Betances	995	63	57	16.87	2.86	11	32	14
15	Blake Treinen	1056	81	63	16.78	2.58	7	39	17
16	Pedro Baez	1044	75	60	16.65	2.54	3	42	15
17	Luis Garcia	879	73	58	16.63	2.46	7	31	20
18	Enny Romero	916	62	47	16.58	2.84	9	26	12
19	Brad Hand	1070	78	63	16.55	2.55	9	39	15
20	Hector Neris	1112	71	66	16.47	2.49	7	40	19

Edwin Diaz and Felipe Rivero have been jostling all season for the top spot on the Fatigue Units reliever charts. They have both crossed the threshold into the 98th %ile for all time workloads – these guys have been put through the ringer this year, and with their teams not out of it yet, you can expect these elite relievers to continue to be sent to the mound to get important outs.

Interestingly, when looking at this list by days between appearances (minimum 10 appearances), the so called “fireman” role looks like it is the most likely to be used on back to back days, or have shorter times between their outings. Jose Alvarez, Bryan Shaw, Jarlin Garcia, and Peter Moylan – all pitchers with high workloads, but not a lot of saves to show for it. These are pitchers who have been successful, and are heavily relied on by their managers to get outs on consecutive days, then hand the game over to the back of the bullpen.

Team Management – Starting Rotations

Starting Rotation Workloads

	Team	Games Started	Pitch Count	Inning Appearances	Games	Fatigue Units	4 + Days Rest	1-3 Days of Rest	Back to Back
1	Diamondbacks	142	13721	857	142	78.34	141	1	0
2	Nationals	142	14034	849	142	77.37	140	1	1
3	Rockies	144	12997	811	144	77.30	140	4	0
4	Red Sox	140	14108	845	140	77.10	139	1	0
5	Indians	143	13236	848	143	76.68	138	5	0
6	Cardinals	141	13195	826	141	76.47	141	0	0
7	Giants	144	13693	868	144	75.89	142	2	0
8	Mets	140	13063	769	140	73.89	136	4	0
9	Pirates	142	12873	795	142	73.76	141	1	0
10	Rangers	141	13105	817	141	73.20	139	2	0
11	Astros	140	12870	794	140	72.09	138	2	0
12	Twins	143	12668	812	143	71.69	141	2	0
13	Angels	141	12416	797	141	71.09	138	3	0
14	Yankees	141	12838	796	141	71.00	141	0	0
15	Cubs	144	13087	808	144	70.85	142	2	0
16	Tigers	142	13460	799	142	70.85	140	2	0
17	Orioles	143	13490	767	143	70.76	141	2	0
18	Padres	144	12612	795	144	70.76	140	4	0
19	Mariners	143	12655	799	143	70.45	142	1	0
20	White Sox	140	13114	778	140	70.27	135	5	0
21	Rays	146	13685	821	146	69.94	144	1	1
22	Braves	142	13267	797	142	69.91	141	1	0
23	Blue Jays	144	12998	776	144	69.32	141	3	0
24	Athletics	142	13003	796	142	69.01	142	0	0
25	Dodgers	141	12279	778	141	68.77	140	1	0
26	Royals	145	12802	796	145	68.38	144	1	0
27	Marlins	142	12272	728	142	67.11	138	4	0
28	Brewers	141	12600	777	141	66.46	140	1	0
29	Phillies	142	12950	774	142	66.17	142	0	0
30	Reds	141	12353	711	141	65.33	138	3	0

Examining the combined workloads of the starting rotations can give us insight into a few things – both on the ability of a manager to monitor pitcher demands, but also a sign of an elite pitching rotation. So – as a caveat to this list – if a pitcher is getting lit up in the first inning, and the manager sends out a reliever to bail him out (I’m looking at you, Francisco Liriano), I have included that as a start for the reliever. The Diamondbacks, Nationals, Rockies, Red Sox, and Indians lead this list for starting pitcher workloads. If you look at the lowest ERAs for starting pitchers, this list looks pretty similar to the fatigue unit list. The flip side of this, is with the LA Dodgers. The Dodgers have the 2nd lowest team ERA, but sit 25th in starting pitcher workloads. Kershaw, Wood, McCarthy, Hill, and even Darvish have spent time on the DL this season. The Dodgers have made use of the 10 day DL, giving extra rest to their pitchers, allowing them to continue pitching deep into the playoffs. They’re in a spin now, but their elite starting pitching is fresh for the playoffs.

Team Management – Bullpens

Bullpen Workloads

	Team	Pitch Count	Inning Appearances	Games	Fatigue Units	4 + Days Rest	1-3 Days of Rest	Back to Back
1	Marlins	9149	619	505	124.82	81	318	106
2	Royals	8456	619	469	123.44	87	280	102
3	White Sox	8331	653	447	119.09	91	265	91
4	Blue Jays	8651	677	497	118.74	80	332	85
5	Mets	8297	629	475	117.36	87	278	110
6	Brewers	8546	582	464	114.94	94	269	101
7	Braves	7530	555	457	114.40	85	280	92
8	Padres	7996	581	448	114.33	86	272	90
9	Orioles	8488	638	425	112.62	96	252	77
10	Athletics	8141	585	453	112.11	87	268	98
11	Pirates	7894	552	426	111.23	72	262	92
12	Mariners	7943	626	459	110.90	113	256	90
13	Phillies	7951	561	430	109.21	84	256	90
14	Dodgers	8065	596	466	109.18	94	282	90
15	Diamondbacks	7195	560	439	107.63	91	243	105
16	Astros	8072	572	441	107.00	95	273	73
17	Reds	8685	605	426	106.38	102	270	54
18	Red Sox	7561	566	429	106.03	90	259	80
19	Cardinals	7471	544	463	105.93	82	288	93
20	Indians	6785	560	419	105.84	101	226	92
21	Rockies	7752	586	463	105.46	86	297	80
22	Cubs	8101	556	455	105.20	96	289	70
23	Yankees	8002	574	409	105.16	106	236	67
24	Angels	7915	581	457	104.94	84	296	77
25	Tigers	7921	576	429	104.75	99	250	80
26	Rays	7589	586	437	104.14	88	268	81
27	Giants	7405	560	445	101.41	81	284	80
28	Twins	7771	626	435	99.36	132	222	81
29	Nationals	6808	511	405	96.95	92	236	77
30	Rangers	7625	549	395	95.13	104	227	64

A heavily taxed bullpen is representative of a lousy starting rotation – typically. The Marlins have had their bullpen absolutely maxed out this season – their have the highest combined fatigue units, while their starting rotation sits 27th in fatigue units. The Blue Jays tell a similar story – a hugely ineffective starting rotation has lead to their bullpen sitting 4th in workload. The Blue Jays Ryan Tepera, Danny Barnes, Roberto Osuna, and Dominic Leone have all seen high workloads this season, and with a ton of blown leads and 15 walk off losses this season, it appears to be wearing them down.

On the flip side, the Indians sit 20th in workload for bullpens. That’s right, their ruthlessly efficient killing machine bullpen will be fresh for the playoffs.

Get the full list of fatigue units for the 2017 season here.

BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC*	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG