Pitcher Spotlight: August Gems in September

A quick look at some August standouts and how likely they are to be useful for the September stretch run:

Luke Weaver | Cardinals – 1.71 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 34% K, 27% K-BB in 21 IP

The 23-year old right’s emergence in August might’ve facilitated the trade of Mike Leake to Seattle on Wednesday. Weaver has fanned 10 in both of his last two starts thanks in large part to a 34% K rate with both his fastball and changeup. After 119.3 IP last year and 124.7 two years ago, he shouldn’t have issues making it to the finish line this year with 106.7 under his belt so far.

He has a reverse platoon split (.723 OPS vR, .536 vL), but a lot of that is the .405 BABIP against righties and I’m not seeing anything in his profile to suggest he deserves that at all, especially with a 23% K-BB against them. If you’ve listened to the podcast at all, you know I’m in on Weaver and I’d definitely buy him for September.

Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks – 2.52 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 27% K, 22% K-BB in 39.3 IP

Corbin’s August is even more impressive when you realize he opened the month with a 3 IP/7 ER dud. That was on August 1st, so he was fortunate enough to get five more starts in the month and allowed just 4 ER combined. The problem here is that he’s a one pitch guy and if you’re going to be a one pitch guy, it should be the fastball. For Corbin, it’s his slider. It’s a damn good slider, but can it continue to cover up the bad fastball and changeup?

To his credit, he’s realized how ineffective those pitches are and used them less throughout the month. His fastball usage dropped from 55% to 48% while the changeup moved from 11% to 7%. I’m not sure he can remain an all-formats guy for the final month of the season, but he was a perfectly capable spot-starter through July even with a 10.9 H/9 and 1.4 HR/9 so I think he will at least maintain that status. Outside of a trip to Coors this Saturday, he should have a rather favorable schedule throughout the rest of the month with a lot of San Diego and San Francsico on the schedule.

Mark Leiter | Phillies – 3.22 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 26% K, 20% K-BB in 22.3 IP

This is two starts, two extended relief appearances, and a disastrous one-inning relief appearance. He’s what you’d call a “kitchen sink” guy with six different pitches generating at least a 4% usage, but I just don’t see a standout pitch or standout skill that can carry him through another month, assuming he even gets to start the whole month. There is a lot of average in the profile which isn’t necessarily bad, but the volatility of an average-at-best arm with no real track record poses a lot of risk without nearly enough upside.

If he sticks in the rotation, he should get starts at the Mets and home to the A’s coming up, but they sandwich a start at the Nationals you want no part of it. I think 15-team mixers and of course NL-only leaguers will find some value in Leiter, but anything shallower should definitely be able to find more worthwhile options, especially with rosters expanding in two days.

Other names:

I didn’t include Jake Junis (23% K-BB in August) because Nick Pollack is writing him up soon and his deep-dive will likely offer a clearer picture of his September viability than a couple paragraphs here, especially since I’ve only seen some of one start. I’m keeping an eye on Chris Stratton (1.52 ERA in August) after reading Nick’s piece and talking to Eno about his piece at The Athletic ($) on him, but he’s slated to get StL, at COL, LAD in his next three and then they get a lot of ARI and LAD in the second half of the month so I’m just not seeing spots for him.  I’m not messing with Dillon Gee (20% K-BB in August) at all.