Quick Looks: Peters & Junis

Dillon Peters

• The 24-year-old, 5’9 lefty throws straight to home (no weird angles) from ¾ arm slot. I watched his last start from September 6th when he faced the Nationals.

• Fastball: 88-92 mph and it usually had a late dip. A few other times it had as much rise as a normal four-seamer. Looking at the pitch information, it seems to be just one pitch considering the spin axis. One possible explanation is that he lost fastball velocity as the game went on.

He was averaging 92 mph in the first inning but down to 90 mph in the 5th.

• Changeup: 83-85 mph with late downward break and to the release side.

• Curveball: Classic 12-6 curve at 77-81 mph. At just over 10 mph less than his fastball, it can be effective as hitters have less time to adjust. Missed badly on a couple of them. They had better shape in the high 70’s instead of low 80’s. He expectantly throws this pitch quite a bit (40% of the time) because it generates a 20% SwStr%.

• Now, while some of the pitches looked great at times, his breaking balls weren’t consistent. He buried some in the dirt or hung a few to get squared up.

• He was trying to pitch too fine at times. He needs to trust his stuff more.

• He was a bit unlucky on his groundballs as several scooted their way through the left side of the infield.

• I went back and read on why experts weren’t high on him. Across the board, most people had all his pitches at or just below average with them being highest on his fastball (which may be his worst pitch now). I really think his lack of height really hurt his value. I see quite a bit of #4 starter comps being thrown around. I think there may be more in him and could end up producing like Zack Godley or Marcus Stroman.

• My advice, especially in keeper leagues, grab him now and see how the season plays out. Owners will pay nothing and could end up with a good bargain.

 

Jakob Junis

For Junis, I had to go back to start on May 21st to find a decent camera angle. Additionally, I watched some of his last start to see if anything has changed. The biggest change was mixing in his sinker more.

• The 24-year-old righty throws from a low ¾ slot straight to the plate.

• Fastball: A typical 89-94 mph four-seamer with some release side break. It’s not an elite rising fastball but it does stay high and generates a decent number of flyballs.

• Sinker: He threw one at 90 mph in the May game with some nice sink and release side run. He did throw it quite a bit more in his last start.

On the season, it has a 59% GB% which mixes in nicely with his four-seamer.

• Change: 81 mph. Threw only one and looked to have nearly the same break as his slider.

• Slider (82): At 81-85 mph, the slider has the shape of a slurve with both horizontal and vertical break. It is his best breaking ball and he’s throwing it a ton (~30 for the season, ~40 in the second half). With his ability to throw it for strikes and generate a 18% SwStr%, he should throw it a lot. His success will be link to this pitch.

• Curve (78): A 84 mph, 1-7 curve was effective when he threw it.

• Junis is an acceptable major league #4/#5 starter. He throws strikes (few walks) and can get a decent number of strikeouts with his slider. He really needs to feel secure with one of his other breaking balls to navigate lineups multiple times. Here’s how he’s done each time through the order.

Time Trough Order: ERA, FIP
1st: 2.16, 2.89
2nd: 4.98, 4.70
3rd: 6.19, 5.13
4th: 27.00, 36.13

His sinker (2% SwStr%) is not going to keep hitters off balance so hitters are sitting fastball or slider.

• Even though Junis has a nice 3.24 ERA in the second half, I don’t see a ton of upside right now, yet alone how he continues to get these results. For the rest of the season, I would consider him to be a matchup starter. For next season, he’s worth taking a shot on in deeper leagues. If he could feel comfortable with one of his other breakers, he could see his stock rise.





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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dtpollittmember
6 years ago

Dropped Junis and grabbed Peters, thanks.