Low-Ownership Starters for Friday (9/15)

Here are my thoughts on some lowly owned pitchers throwing tomorrow (<10% in Yahoo! leagues).

Sean Newcomb (9% owned) vs. Mets (Rafael Montero)

Why not? He’s what streaming is about, strikeouts and maybe a Win. He has a 9.4 K/9 on the season with 11.6 K/9 in AAA. He’s facing a beatable Mets team with Montero on the mound. While he’ll walk more than a batter every other inning inflating the owner’s WHIP and ERA, owners know these lowly guys have some negative traits. At least Newcomb as some positive ones, too.

Rafael Montero (4% owned) at Braves (Sean Newcomb)

Montero is just a bit worse when it comes to strikeouts (8.7 K/9 as a starter) than Newcomb but otherwise, they’re pretty much clones. On a bad team. Facing a bad team. Walks over five batters per nine innings. ERA estimators point to value near five. Again, at least the chances exist for strikeouts and a Win.

Homer Bailey (2% owned) vs Pirates (Chad Kuhl)

After a rebound season in 2016 (10.6 K/9, 3.10 FIP), Bailey’s been 100% unplayable this season. He’s striking out only 6.4 batters per nine while walking over four. While his 7.26 ERA should regress some, his ERA estimators all hover around five. Take a chance elsewhere.

Carson Fulmer (5% owned) vs Tigers (Anibal Sanchez)

Fulmer’s as useless as Bailey. In AAA this season, he posted a 6.9 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9. Owners shouldn’t expect improvement over those numbers. In 12 MLB innings, his walk rate is over six. The lack of control is killing his value.

A.J. Griffin (7% owned) at Angels (Andrew Heaney)

Griffin is a roll of the dice to see if he will give up a home run or four (2.3 HR/9 in 2017). In the six starts in which he didn’t allow a home run, his ERA is 1.74. In the nine starts when he did allow a home run, his ERA is 9.68. In the two matchups with the Angels this season, he’s allowed just one dong.

If it wasn’t for the long ball, he’d look like a decent play with a 7.3 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, and a .249 BABIP which stays low because of his fly ball nature. He’s was a better option when the ball wasn’t juiced.

Angels Unknown Starter (0% owned) vs Rangers (A.J. Griffin)

Whoever gets this spot is likely to bad, very bad. Stay away!

Adam Conley (9% owned) vs Brewers (Zach Davies)

Conley’s not completely unplayable but he’s close. His fastball velocity is down 1.5 mph from last season and the drop is likely the reason his strikeouts are down and his home runs are up.

While his ERA is better (4.20) since returning from a finger injury, his ERA estimators point to an ERA over five. He’s a tweener.

Bartolo Colon (8% owned) vs Toronto (J.A. Happ)

Colon at this point is just a Win play. His strikeout rate (5.4 K/9) is the lowest among all the pitchers I examined. He just throws strikes (1.6 BB/9) and hopes the other team doesn’t hit the pitch too far. Owners should know by now what they are getting from the 44-year-old and if he can help their team.

Daniel Mengden (0% owned) vs Phillies (Mark Leiter)

No pitcher is going to look good (7.07 ERA) with his walk and home run rates are exactly at 3.2. All signs point to him being better. Still bad but not this bad. He has always posted a strikeout rate over eight, so it should rebound (4.5 K/9). He’s just another bad pitcher but at least he has a nice match up with the Phillies. Weak Win play.

Mark Leiter (5% owned) vs Athletics (Daniel Mengden)

With all the other horrible choices, Leiter is a must play with Newcomb and Montero. He’s posted a good strikeout rate (7.7 K/9) and a walk rate at two (2.0 BB/9) when a starter this season. While his ERA is inflated from a high home run rate (1.7 HR/9), the home runs should drop. The A’s and Mengden are beatable for a Win. He’s a nice streaming option.

 

My rankings:
Newcomb
Montero
Leiter
.
Griffin (high risk and reward)
Colon
Conley
.
Mendgen
.
Bailey
Fulmer