Archive for Starting Pitchers

I don’t really know. Thanks for reading!

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When I started writing Two Good Starts, Two Bad Starts earlier this season, the idea wasn’t to point out trends in small samples so that fantasy owners could act on them right away. That is almost always a bad idea. It was to identify changes in pitcher performance that could conceivably turn into longer-term trends, which in turn could be useful guides for making roster decisions. It could have easily been called Who To Put On Your Watch List.

Now that Labor Day is behind us, there isn’t much time left for small samples to become sufficiently large samples for making decisions. Then again, if you are still in contention, roster decisions will be especially crucial going forward. If you’ve been on autopilot in starting Jon Gray every week, there’s no time like now to consider if he is potentially worth benching. Similarly, if you continue to dismiss John Gant, even as he has shaved close to a run off his ERA over the past four weeks, you may be doing so at your own risk. Or maybe not…
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Since returning from the disabled list (neck nerve impingement), Stephen Strasburg’s fastball velocity has dropped from averaging 96.1 mph to averaging 93.9 mph. For a pitcher known for bringing the heat, the decline immediately impacts his value going forward. The question isn’t if but how much will be the decline.

First, I completely understand Strasburg could get his fastball velocity back as soon as his next start (the chances for this could be another whole article). When determining the 30-year-old righty’s value, I needed to plant a flag at some velocity and then come up with a projection.

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After striking out more than a third of opposing batters he faced during his time at Double-A and Triple-A this season, Astros prospect Joshua James finally got the call to make his Major League debut on Saturday. Given the stacked Astros rotation, it wasn’t that much of a surprise that it took until rosters expanded for James to get his chance. It turned out to be a mixed bag of a start, which is to be expected during a pitcher’s first career Major League start. But let’s rewind for a moment and learn how James got to this point.

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Just shy of a month ago, on the day the Rays dealt Chris Archer to the Pirates, Thomas Bassinger of the Tampa Bay Times looked into why the hometown team’s presumed ace had put together a less-than-ace-quality season. The explanation was clear and compelling. Archer was leaving his slider out in the middle of the strike zone too often when he was facing lefties. That went a long way towards shedding light on why Archer had yielded a respectable .312 wOBA against right-handed batters but a bloated .347 wOBA against lefties in his final go-around with the Rays.
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At the beginning of this week, I identified and discussed a group of hitters who suffered through miserable slumps at the beginning of the season, only to return to form, or better, the rest of the way. I then did the same for some of the players who enjoyed fantastic performances in April, just to regress back to what had always been expected the rest of the way. Though this was by no means an exhaustive study, the lesson for all these players is to trust their entire body of work, not the small sample of a month.

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I think this is about the time of every year that I start to realize just how long the season is and I recall the landscape in May/June and see how different it is now. I wanted to highlight a group of pitchers who have righted the ship on their season and become fantasy assets once again after being cast off.

I didn’t include David Price despite a big ERA difference (4.42 1H, 1.09 2H) because I don’t think it ever got to a point where you could realistically cut him. All of these guys were hitting waiver wires in just most mixed formats, but are now being relied on down the stretch. Some of the guys profiled actually started to turn it around before the second half, but I wanted to include them because the bulk of their emergence has come since the break.

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I have been wanting to write about Steven Matz for some time, and this column is providing me with a reason to do so. Since Matz is coming off two good starts, I’m genuinely intrigued by what might be different for him lately, but he has been a curiosity all season.
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Jacob Nix

Fastball: Come in at 91-95 mph and straight but the 22-year-old righty hit his spots moving it around the strike zone.

By the 5th inning, he’d lost a couple ticks off the fastball. With the velocity loss, he may struggle later in games.

Curve: 76-79 mph with a 12-7 break. He didn’t have a feel for it and bounced a couple up to the plate. It’s not loopy and has above average speed. It could be a really good pitch for him.

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Every season there are numerous starting pitchers who surprise, rewarding those owners who spent heavily on hitting during the draft, with a plan of rostering cheaper breakout/sleeper type pitchers and improving their staff during the season. Though these three surprises haven’t earned a ton of mixed league value, they weren’t really even forecasted to return positive value in even mono leagues. Let’s discuss the trio, who all happen to be left-handed.

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