8 Second Half SP Surgers

I think this is about the time of every year that I start to realize just how long the season is and I recall the landscape in May/June and see how different it is now. I wanted to highlight a group of pitchers who have righted the ship on their season and become fantasy assets once again after being cast off.

I didn’t include David Price despite a big ERA difference (4.42 1H, 1.09 2H) because I don’t think it ever got to a point where you could realistically cut him. All of these guys were hitting waiver wires in just most mixed formats, but are now being relied on down the stretch. Some of the guys profiled actually started to turn it around before the second half, but I wanted to include them because the bulk of their emergence has come since the break.

I decided not to include Cole Hamels because it was really a “since the trade deadline” split as he posted a 4.72 ERA with Texas through July and now has a minuscule 0.79 ERA in five starts with the Cubs. He is definitely worthy of mention, but his circumstance changed so much that I just thought it was better to give him a special mention here instead in the body on this piece. A velo boost, the Cubs defense, and more confidence in his secondary stuff are all fueling Hamels’ surge.

Kevin Gausman is a similar case to Hamels wherein his being part of a trade is a major factor in his surge. Gausman had a 4.43 ERA with Baltimore and a 1.69 ERA with Atlanta. Unlike Hamels, we haven’t really seen a skills or repertoire jump from Gausman. He has gone to exclusively throwing from the stretch and that can definitely help a lot, but he has also gotten a massive boost in defensive support. Baltimore has an MLB-worst -99 defensive runs saved while the Braves are fourth with 44.

Jon Gray, COL | 1H: 5.44 ERA, 2H: 3.38 ERA

The 1H/2H split actually sells Gray a little short because his resurgence began when he was recalled from Triple-A on July 14th. It seemed like a “get your mind right” send down because his base skills were actually fantastic through June as his 22% K-BB was yielding a 3.13 FIP, but a .386 BABIP, 16% HR/FB, and 63% LOB rate were conspiring to tank Gray’s season with a 5.77 ERA.

Of course, he plays a role in those metrics to some degree, but it’s not out of bounds to suggest there was also a healthy dose of bad luck. After a couple starts at Albuquerque, he has returned to post a 3.09 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 55 innings. Interestingly enough, his K-BB rate has dipped to 16%, but a .215 BABIP and 73% LOB rate are covering the strikeout drop. Plus, he still has a very strong 14% SwStr rate. He only has six strikeouts in his last two starts (13 IP) bringing the rate down. It was at 24% through his first six since the recall.

Fewer fastballs, more sliders, improved results on both, and a balancing of his luck have fueled the surge. He had a rough outing against the Angels last night (6.7 IP/5 ER), but I don’t see it as the start of an unraveling. I think he’ll be strong down the stretch.

German Marquez, COL | 1H: 4.81, 2H: 2.89

Gray’s teammate was able to figure himself out on the job in the majors, but has experienced a similar rise after a rocky start. Unlike Gray, Marquez didn’t have brilliant base skills to fall back on with a 15% K-BB through the first half. He was missing bats everywhere, but only finding success on the road (not atypical for a Rockies starter, of course). He too doesn’t have a perfect 1H/2H split for his success as he really started to turn it around in late-June (2.57 ERA in his L10 starts), but the most noticeable change didn’t take shape until recently.

Marquez has emulated Gray with his repertoire switch, dropping his fastball usage by eight points to 50% and putting it all into his slider usage, which has surged to 22%. He’s also had a much better curveball and all three pitches are working in concert to generate success regardless of venue. In the 19 first half starts, he had pitch values of -7.0 on the fastball, 4.5 on the slider, and -3.9 on the curve compared to 0.0, 5.2, and 4.3 in seven second half starts. Most encouraging is his last four starts at home (stretching back to just before the break): 6 IP/2 ER, 7.7 IP/2 ER, 6 IP/3 ER, and 7 IP/0 ER. Marquez looks like an all-formats, all-venues play for the rest of the season.

Luis Castillo, CIN | 1H: 5.49, 2H: 3.78

I’d never heard of this guy until about a couple weeks ago, but he seems pretty interesting. He did get knocked around his last time out at Wrigley, but his K-BB rate has jumped from 14% to 21% and his WHIP is down 0.30 to 1.08. Like the others, Castillo has also dropped fastballs for sliders (and changeups), but it’s been the less-is-more improvement of his fastball results helping the turnaround.

His changeup was what sold me on him in the first place as you just don’t see rookie arms post a 10.2 pitch value changeup very often so I was glad to see that it stayed relatively solid throughout the first half (3.2 PVal). His fastball/sinker went from a -0.9 pitch value last year to an ugly -14.5 mark before the break, but it’s now at 0.7 in six second half starts. Cutting homers on the pitch will still be the key to his overall success, though. Even in this second half run, his two 5 ER games include 2 HR apiece. Castillo is still a work in progress, but I’m still fully in on buying this profile, particularly in the long term.

Anthony DeSclafani, CIN | 1H: 5.32, 2H: 2.97

Tony Disco’s season didn’t even start until June so he’s a little different than all these other guys, but his slider has gone from good to great and turned him into someone worth rostering. The pitch had a .618 OPS and 23% K-BB through the seven 1H starts before reeling off a .331, 31% combo in his last five since the break.

Tanner Roark, WAS | 1H: 4.87, 2H: 1.61

Unlike all the others, Roark has actually run toward his fastball to find success. His usage is up 13 points to a very nice 69% and the pitch has gone from -3.7 to 7.1 on the pitch value scale. His approach has changed, too. He’s working the fastball away to lefties and in to righties more consistently which has helped severely trim the walks and power against the pitch. His walk rate on heaters is down to seven points to 4% while the ISO is down from .146 to nearly invisible .058. His breaking stuff has supported the fastball well, but make no mistake that the heater is why Roark is once again an all-formats play.

Matt Boyd, DET | 1H: 4.76, 2H: 2.53

I wrote about Boyd back on June 19th when he had a 3.23 ERA and he promptly went out and posted a 9.78 ERA in his next five starts. While I didn’t exactly say he was 100% legit with no issues whatsoever, I sure as heck didn’t see that meltdown coming. The slider that had been driving his success fell by the wayside with a -1.1 pitch value in the five starts after I wrote about him, but he’s recaptured the feel for it with a 3.6 since the break. He’s also added two ticks to his fastball, up to 91.3 on average and the pitch has been much better. The schedule doesn’t do him many favors after a trip to KC this week with a trip to the Bronx followed by St. Louis and Houston at home so I’d be a little careful here.

Jakob Junis, KC | 1H: 5.13, 2H: 3.47

A massive dip in home runs has been key to Junis’ turnaround. Of course you don’t just stop allowing homers, there are changes behind the drop in gopheritis. Like so many others in this list, he’s traded fastballs for sliders, but he’s also allowing fewer homers on the fastball in general and that’s the major factor in his success.

After a 2.1 HR/9, 18% HR/FB combo in the first half, he’s down to 0.5, 8% in seven starts since the break. He allowed 14 HRs on fastballs through June, but just 1 since. The slider was elite before the break (.520 OPS, 39% K-BB) and it’s only been better since and he’s using it more (.358, 44%).

Alex Cobb, BAL | 1H: 6.41, 2H: 2.15

Cobb’s success is always tied to his splitter. The one-time elite pitch abandoned Cobb for 2016-17 as he rebounded from TJ surgery. It still wasn’t quite right through the first half at -4.9 pitch value, but it has skyrocketed to 3.3 in his last seven starts. He has pushed the usage 16 points to 37%, too. His homers have greatly dropped, too, unsurprisingly. He’s down from 1.7 HR/9, 16% HR/FB to 0.6, 8% and it’s definitely attributed to the splitter improvements. The 10% K-BB rate isn’t flashy or even good at all to be honest, but with the splitter working, this isn’t a total mirage.