Does Chris Archer Still Have A Slider Problem?

Just shy of a month ago, on the day the Rays dealt Chris Archer to the Pirates, Thomas Bassinger of the Tampa Bay Times looked into why the hometown team’s presumed ace had put together a less-than-ace-quality season. The explanation was clear and compelling. Archer was leaving his slider out in the middle of the strike zone too often when he was facing lefties. That went a long way towards shedding light on why Archer had yielded a respectable .312 wOBA against right-handed batters but a bloated .347 wOBA against lefties in his final go-around with the Rays.

If fantasy owners had high hopes for Archer with his move to the NL and, more specifically, to pitcher-friendly PNC Park, those hopes have been dashed after five starts. As a Pirate, he sports a 6.45 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP.

After his second post-trade start, I dug into his brief history as a Pirate and found little that was concerning, aside from him locating too often in the center of the zone in a start against the Cardinals. Three starts later, fantasy owners might be wondering if they can trust Archer enough to start him, even in 12-team mixed leagues. He actually fared well in his Aug. 20 outing against the Braves, but he was pulled after four innings due to discomfort in his left leg. But then last Sunday, Archer’s slider problem reemerged.

His first two innings against the Brewers were largely uneventful, but in the third inning, Archer came unglued. He gave up a Lorenzo Cain triple and a Travis Shaw double, though neither was on a slider. Ryan Braun’s RBI single was on a four-seamer that caught the inside edge of the plate. Still, if Archer could have retired Mike Moustakas, the Pirates could have headed to the fourth inning with just a two-run deficit.

Instead, this happened.

#FunFact: Moose can run 35 mph over short distances and trot at 20 mph for longer periods.#PlayersWeekend #ThisIsMyCrew pic.twitter.com/AKswfzt3yj

— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) August 26, 2018

Archer’s slider caught enough of the plate for Moustakas to pull it into the right field stands. Then two batters later, Manny Pina went to the opposite field on another slider.

?? #PlayersWeekend #ThisIsMyCrew pic.twitter.com/8uY0ySzX3q

— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) August 26, 2018

Archer settled down for a 1-2-3 fourth inning, but that would be the end of his afternoon. He left with six earned runs charged to him and an ERA that had climbed to 4.72. While Archer has had just one troubling inning over his last two starts, the bad impression he left last Sunday can look like confirmation of a season-to-date stat line that is nothing short of disappointing.

Yet a closer look at Archer’s season reveals that he has really had two seasons in 2018. The first season, comprised of his first nine starts, was far out of line with expectations and his recent body of work. As the table below shows, as of May 12, he had a 5.64 ERA and a 22.8 percent strikeout rate that was more than six percentage points below his mark for 2017. Yet his 13.9 percent swinging strike rate was actually half a percentage point higher than his rate from the year before. He was missing out on called strikes, as his 74.7 percent Z-Swing% represented nearly a seven percentage point year-to-year increase.

Archer’s second season began with his 6.2 scoreless innings of work against the Angels on May 17. That kicked off a string of 11 starts, during which he held his Z-Swing% below 66 percent on eight different occasions. Correspondingly, his strikeout rate surged and his ERA over that period was a much tidier 3.43.

While those overall stats don’t specifically tie Archer’s improved results to better slider location, the heatmaps below suggest that it did play a role. This heatmap shows Archer’s slider location for his first nine starts. This is consistent with what Bassinger found for Archer’s entire 2018 tenure with the Rays. He was frequently around the middle of the strike zone and rarely locating anywhere else.

However, if we isolate Archer’s slider location against lefties over his next 11 starts, which includes his final eight outings with the Rays, we see a different pattern. It’s a stretch to say that Archer was averse to locating in the heart of the strike zone, but at least his location was a lot less predictable.

Archer certainly enjoyed better results in terms of Avg and ISO allowed on his slider against lefties during the second phase of his 2018 season. Whereas left-handed hitters compiled an Avg and ISO above .300 on the pitch over his first nine starts, those figures hovered just above .100 for his subsequent 11 starts.

While only one of his last two starts was bad (and even then, it was only one inning that was bad), a worrisome trend has emerged. In both appearances, Archer induced swings on more than 75 percent of his in-zone pitches, and there has been no corresponding decrease in his Z-Contact%. That has resulted in a paltry 12.3 percent called strike rate, and his 11.0 percent swinging strike rate from those starts would not be robust enough to compensate for it, should those rates hold for future starts.

That raises the question of whether Archer is embarking on a third season — one that could be as bad or worse than his “first season.” While the home runs hit by Moustakas and Pina might suggest otherwise, Archer’s heatmap for his slider location versus lefties from his last two starts is not particularly alarming. He has actually done a good job of avoiding the center of the strike zone.

The point in presenting a heatmap from two starts is not to signal that the coast is clear to start Archer in all formats, but just to show that there is no obvious warning sign that warrants benching him. Even though Archer’s stats since getting traded are alarming, I still don’t see a strong case for avoiding him, even in shallower leagues. His lack of called strikes in his last two starts could speak to his command being on the wane, so it’s justifiable to sit him in a league that is shallow enough to offer reliable options. If you are in a tight head-to-head race this week or ill-positioned to take chances with ERA or WHIP in Roto, then if you can still make roster changes, it might make sense to skip him for Saturday’s start at Atlanta, given their array of dangerous lefties. (The Braves’ hitters also boast a .358 wOBA against righties at home this month.)

Given the lack of truly trustworthy SP options, I’m guessing these situations are few and far between. It might be nerve-wracking to trust Archer as a fantasy option right now, but the bulk of his track record since mid-May suggests there are better times ahead.