We’re a little more than a quarter of the way through the regular season and the search for useful pitching is still just as pressing now as it was a month ago. Here’s a handful of pitchers who are rostered in under 40% of all Ottoneu leagues who could be nice pickups if you’re looking for an option to fill in for an injured starter or looking for another bullpen piece.

After profiling Mitchell Parker last month, I’ve got a couple more Nationals starters on my radar. (BTW, Parker has continued to pitch well against some pretty tough competition; he’s got a 3.02 FIP through five starts against the likes of the Dodgers, Astros, Rangers, and Orioles.) Both Trevor Williams and Jake Irvin have been surprisingly solid to start this season as part of a Washington starting rotation that has been much better than expected. Williams has had spurts of success in the past, but not like this. The biggest difference maker for him has been the addition of a sweeper to his repertoire that immediately became his best pitch. It’s running a whiff rate north of 40% and batters are producing a .227 xwOBA off the big breaker. He’s yet to allow a home run this year, which is certainly the product of some good luck, but his xFIP is a solid 3.79 and his xERA is an even better 3.01. The rest of his arsenal looks pretty unchanged which means he’ll need to keep leaning on this new pitch to maintain his success. It’s probably worth riding the hot streak for now, but be weary of quick regression.

Like Williams, Irvin has added a new pitch to his repertoire, a cutter in his case. This new pitch hasn’t had the same effect as the breaking ball, though it has given Irvin a fourth pitch to deepen his repertoire. Instead, he’s found success by cutting his walk rate by more than six points down to 4.3%. Across the board, his plate discipline stats look greatly improved; he’s pitching in the zone more often, but his chase rate is up a few points and his contact rate is down a few points. That’s a pretty good combination of improvements and he’s reaped the benefits. Beyond his improved walk rate, his peripherals aren’t as good looking as Williams (a 3.60 xFIP and a 4.79 xERA), but he’s probably good enough now to stream when the matchup is right as long as his hot streak continues.

Cole Irvin was turning heads this spring with some gaudy velocity numbers, but that hasn’t carried over into the regular season. Nevertheless, he’s been a solid member of the Orioles rotation as they’ve struggled with some injuries to start the season. Even though they’ve gotten a bit more healthy with Kyle Bradish and John Means coming off the IL, Irvin should keep his job in the rotation thanks to his excellent numbers through his first seven starts of the season. The biggest change for Irvin has been his usage of his curveball. That breaking ball is now his “primary” pitch at the expense of his changeup and cutter. Batters have produced a .296 xwOBA off the big breaker, helping him manage contact against him to the tune of a .267 BABIP. As a lefty pitching in the now cavernous Camden Yards, his home park benefits him a bit more too. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is essentially unchanged from his career norms so it seems like a lot of his success can be attributed to some pretty good batted ball luck. Still, his xFIP is a decent 3.82 while his xERA is a little higher at 3.99.

John Schreiber turned in a solid effort as a setup guy back in 2022 for the Red Sox. Injuries derailed his season last year and he was shipped off to Kansas City during the offseason. He’s rediscovered himself with his new ballclub and has become one of the key members of their bullpen. There are a few red flags however; his strikeout rate is about ten points lower than it was a few years ago because his sweeper just isn’t earning many swings-and-misses these days. He’s been effective despite the lack of punch outs and is earning high leverage work regularly. Plus, the Royals current closer, James McArthur, has looked a little shaky during his last few outings so there could be an opportunity for Schreiber to sneak in a few saves here and there in the future.

Injuries and command issues have always held Austin Adams back from realizing his skills as a high-leverage reliever. He’s struck out nearly a third of the batters he’s faced in his career but he’s only accumulated 108.1 innings over the last five seasons. Finally healthy, he’s been a productive member of the A’s surprisingly dominant bullpen. Sitting behind Mason Miller and Lucas Erceg in the pecking order, he’s collected 11 holds in just 13.2 innings. What’s more encouraging is that his walk rate has dropped to a career-low 8.6%. He might not get much work in the eighth or ninth innings, but he’s been a fantastic bridge to get to those two relief aces behind him.

Luke Weaver has emerged as a multi-inning fireman in the Yankees bullpen this year. He hasn’t allowed a run over his last ten outings encompassing 15.1 innings with a 20-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His changeup has turned into an elite weapon for him with a whiff rate north of 50% and just a .201 xwOBA allowed off the pitch. His ability to work multiple innings has eased the pressure off a shaky New York bullpen and they’re leaning on him pretty hard to get to their closer in the ninth.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• The only schedule quirk next week is a four-game, home-and-home series between the Phillies and Mets. They’ll start off with two games in New York and then two games in Philadelphia. The matchups are poor for the Mets no matter where they’re playing since the Phillies offense has been so good recently. For the Phillies, the matchup is a lot better in the pitcher friendly confines of Citi Field.
• Teams to avoid with a pair of tough matchups include the Guardians and White Sox. Cleveland travels to Texas to face the Rangers and then hosts the red hot Twins. You’re probably not rostering any Chicago starters except for Erick Fedde and he’s the only recommendation I have from their rotation in a revenge game against his former team, the Nationals.
• The Diamondbacks and Dodgers both have a pair of easier matchups on the docket next week. Arizona hosts the Reds and the Tigers, both of whom have struggling offenses. Los Angeles travels to San Francisco and then hosts the Reds.

Like discussed with hitters yesterday and last week, a pitcher’s batted ball type profile is important and helps drive their BABIP and HR/9 rate. More grounders and line drives allowed usually result in a higher BABIP, while more fly balls allowed usually result in a higher HR/9 rate. So with that in mind, it follows that changes to a pitcher’s profile could change the shape of their performance. Let’s review the five starting pitchers that have raised their GB% the most, along with those who have suffered the biggest declines.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• There are a bunch of teams with two off days next week: the Blue Jays, Braves, Nationals, Orioles, Red Sox. These teams may take the extra rest day to reset their rotation so keep an eye on their announced starters to make sure the matchups are where you want them.
• The Rangers and A’s have a scheduled double-header on Wednesday and both teams will need to call up a spot starter. Texas will likely give Jack Leiter his second big league start and it comes against a surprisingly decent Oakland ballclub.
• It’s possible we’ll see the activations of Walker Buehler, Justin Steele, Nick Pivetta, Frankie Montas, Bryan Woo, and Braxton Garrett next week. Those pitching staffs will be in flux as they figure out how to fit those injured pitchers back into the rotation.
• The Blue Jays and Nationals have a tough week ahead. Toronto travels to Philadelphia for a couple of games before hosting the red hot Twins. The Nationals have a two-game Beltway series on tap and then will travel to Boston and the cozy confines of Fenway Park.

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings.

A few general schedule notes:

• Simply based on the way the schedules lined up, it looks like there are a ton of teams who have a pair of easy opponents next week: the A’s, Cardinals, Marlins, Pirates and Rockies all look like they’ve got easily exploitable matchups. The problem is that those teams don’t have completely trustworthy starting rotations to begin with, which means there are still some risky plays despite the opponents.
• I’d be comfortable starting anyone from the Marlins rotation in their series against the Rockies and A’s and they’ll also need callup fill-ins for two spot starts next week. It probably won’t be Braxton Garrett as he’s still working back from his shoulder injury, but keep an eye on his progress as Miami might activate him off the IL early to make one of those starts next week.
• This is one of the few opportunities to go ahead and start any Rockies starters you might be rostering since they’re on the road playing two weak offenses (but let’s be honest, that’s probably not likely). I actually think Ryan Feltner is a sneaky streaming play since he has a two-start week and has been pretty decent this year.
• On the flip side, the Giants and Mariners have two pretty tough matchups on the docket next week. San Francisco travels to Boston and Philadelphia and Logan Webb seems like the only matchup-proof starter in their rotation (and he has a double-start week too). The Mariners have the harder task of hosting the Braves and then traveling to Houston. Their cadre of aces have been absolutely dominant recently, but it’s a tall ask to face two of the best offenses in baseball.

Welcome to another automated installment of fastball velocity risers and fallers. For reference, here are a few articles that explain both the process and the importance of increased or decreased velocity when predicting future success:

• Using Game-By-Game Fastball Velocity to Influence SP Sit/Start Decisions by Lucas Kelly
• MLB pitching models should incorporate recency, giving us an intriguing ranks update by Eno Sarris
• Baseball’s ‘Hot Hand’ Is Real by Rob Arthur and Greg Matthews

The data for this article reflects games played through April 24th and only displays Statcast’s four-seam fastball (FF) velocity. 

A.J. Puk’s velocity decrease was likely a result of shoulder fatigue and he remains on the IL. He is expected back in the first week of May and is reportedly going to rejoin the bullpen. Dean Kremer’s most recent start showcased the most drop in velocity, but he also recorded 10 strikeouts against the Angels in that start. It’s something to keep an eye on as Kremer threw a career-high 172.2 innings in 2023.

Read the rest of this entry »

When you get around your friends and family who play in your fantasy baseball league and they immediately tell you how sorry they are for you, it means your fantasy team stinks. Hunter Brown had a really bad game and I won’t complain or write bad stuff about him because I’m sure he’s feeling bad enough about it as is. Our ERAs are bad, let’s leave it at that.

Did you see it coming? Did anyone? Apparently, someone in a Paul Sporer chat smelt a stinker coming just by paying attention to the underlying metrics. Brilliant! Making sit/start decisions with starting pitchers is an area of my game that needs improvement. I want to flag and bench a pitcher not because they’re heading to Atlanta or playing the Dodgers, but because I conducted sound analysis and noticed something wasn’t quite right. In this article, I will introduce PINE (Pitchers In Need of Extraction), a new and very basic model to flag starting pitchers who need to be given a little more scrutiny and possibly removed from your starting lineup, set to riding the pine.

Read the rest of this entry »

The number of pitching injuries haven’t let up yet and it feels like everyone is looking for starting pitching to help out their rosters. Here’s a trio of pitchers who are rostered in under 10% of all Ottoneu leagues who could be useful pickups if you’re looking for an option to fill in for an injured starter or two.

Because he’s spent his career pitching in Oakland, Paul Blackburn’s success has gone quietly unnoticed. He’s also dealt with a myriad of injuries and has surpassed 20 starts in a season just twice in his eight-year career. Still, over the past three seasons, he’s compiled a 3.95 FIP with a decent strikeout-to-walk ratio and some excellent contact management. This year, it took him four starts to finally allow his first run of the season. He’s dramatically reduced the usage of his sinker and is now throwing all six of the pitches in his repertoire between 20% and 10% of the time. His cutter is now technically his primary pitch and the effectiveness of that pitch has increased this year thanks to slightly higher velocity and horizontal movement.

In Mitchell Parker’s debut, he held the Dodgers to just two runs in five innings. In his second start in the big leagues, he held the Astros scoreless over seven innings. Those are two of the best lineups in baseball and Parker carved through them. He only throws his fastball in the low-90s, but his over-the-top delivery creates natural carry with the pitch. And when he pairs it with his 12-to-6 curveball, it becomes a deadly pitch pair. He’s also added a splitter to his repertoire recently and his scouting report says he also throws a slider. He’s survived his first two starts with some pretty good batted ball luck and his profile that of an up-and-down back-end starter. With the new splitter and improved command, it’s possible he’s raised his ceiling a bit, but I’d be wary of paying too much to roster him at this point.

Albert Suárez’s story is a fun one. He pitched for the Giants in limited action way back in 2016 and 2017, bounced around in Japan and Korea for five years and finally signed a minor league contract with the Orioles this offseason. He had a great spring training and finally got the call up to make a spot start last Wednesday. He held the Twins scoreless over 5.2 innings in his first big league action in seven years and then held the Angels scoreless over another 5.2 innings in his second start yesterday. His calling card is a mid-90s fastball with plenty of carry that he can command at the top of the zone. Batters have swung and missed on nearly 20% of the heater’s he’s thrown in his two starts so far. That’s a ridiculous whiff rate, especially for a fastball. His repertoire is rounded out with a changeup and cutter, both of which are returning decent results so far. With the Orioles dealing with plenty of injuries in their starting rotation, it’s likely that Suárez will get a long run of starts to prove he can stick in the majors for good.

My favorite activity early in the season is to try to capitalize on underperforming and overperforming starting pitchers. I’ll dangle my pitchers with low ERAs whose skills don’t support it and target those who hold high ERAs despite strong skills. In the past, I’ve exclusively used SIERA to identify such pitcher groups. Today, I’ll use Statcast’s xERA, as it utilizes actual batted ball data, so not every ground ball and fly ball are equal, as they are in the SIERA equation. So let’s compare actual ERA to xERA to identify and discuss both the underperformers and overperformers. Don’t forget that any ERA estimator uses actual strikeout and walk rates, so if those metrics seem unsustainable (either on the high or low side), then the expected ERA equation isn’t going to be as helpful.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings.

A few general schedule notes:

• The Braves and Rays look like they have pretty easy schedules next week. Tampa hosts the Tigers before traveling to face the hapless White Sox next weekend while Atlanta hosts the Marlins and Guardians. The Giants also have six games at home next week which should be a boon to their starting rotation.
• On the other hand, the Reds and Guardians have tough slates next week. Cincinnati hosts the Phillies before heading out to face the Rangers on the road while Cleveland hosts the Red Sox and then travel to Atlanta over the weekend.
• The Astros have a weird week with two off days and just five games including two in Colorado next weekend.
• The Phillies might activate Taijuan Walker from the IL next week. Keep an eye on their rotation to see how they handle his activation while allowing Spencer Turnbull to continue his hot start to the season.
• The Red Sox will need to make a roster move to find a fill in for the injured Garrett Whitlock on Sunday. Right now, Naoyuki Uwasawa is listed on the Probables Grid. In addition, Boston used Cooper Criswell as a bulk reliever behind an opener yesterday. If they continue that pattern next week, make sure he’s in the right SP or RP slot in your lineup depending on how the Sox deploy him.