Yesterday, I opened 2015 Pod’s Picks season with my infield bullish and bearish selections. Today I’ll finish my look at hitters by moving into the outfield. The bullish group will only include those I ranked within my top 60 and the bearish only players the consensus ranked within their top 60.
If you’re like us—we sincerely hope you aren’t, but if you’re reading this blog, you probably are—your soul is suffused with the sickness unto death as you contemplate how microscopic the attention you pay to baseball events must be if you hope to succeed in any moderately sophisticated Fantasy Baseball league. First, of course, you have to know how the players everyone knows and cares about are doing. Thus, it will matter to you when you see a headline like “Sean Doolittle plays catch.” We know that this fact has a measure of real-world significance that, say, “Khloe Kardashian plays catch” or “Mitch McConnell plays catch” doesn’t. Still, we keep expecting to see follow-ups: “Sean Doolittle walks the dog.” “Sean Doolittle takes his kids to P.F. Chang’s.” Nonetheless, we care. And just to set the record straight: Doolittle doesn’t have kids, or a spouse, though he does have a famously hot girlfriend.
And then, of course, you need to be completely familiar with the resumes and futures of guys that normal people haven’t heard of. We won’t insult you by telling you who Bruce Rondon is, because you already know. But believe us, there are plenty of hard-core baseball fans (as opposed to Fantasy addicts) who don’t. Read the rest of this entry »
Due to the busy preseason schedule of posts I had to publish, the 2015 version of Pod’s Picks is being unveiled later than ever before. But I refuse to skip a year because it’s always fun comparing my rankings to the rest of the rankers and discovering who was closer at season’s end. Rather than drag things out by posting just one position a day like I have in the past, I’m grouping them into infield, outfield and starting pitchers to bring us into the start of the season (finally!).
I calculated the average rank of the three rankers in the Rotographs Rankings Update and then compared to my ranking within each position. As usual, I will limit my Bullish picks to those I have ranked as startable players in a standard 12-team league and Bearish picks to those the consensus has ranked as startable.
“Don’t read into Spring Training stats” is a good surface level mantra to hold on to. The competition is uneven, the results don’t matter, and the players are all working on things in preparation for the regular season. To some extent, it’s like looking at September numbers on a non-contending team: those are very different from May numbers.
Even the benefits of a huge surge in results is only slightly predictive. There’s the study from John Dewan about a huge slugging percentage breakout in the spring, but recently work by Ben Lindbergh and Jon Shepherd poked some holes in the theory.
If you look at when stats stabilize, however, there are a few stats worth checking out. We know from Jeff Zimmerman that fastball velocity stabilizes very quickly, and so it’s worth reading his MASH articles to find the most recent gun readings on pitchers.
And we know that strikeouts stabilize quickly — 100 plate appearances for batters, 126 batters faced for pitchers. A spring is something like a half of a September, so it doesn’t get to those thresholds, but the evidence is there that strikeouts become meaningful quicker than most stats, and so therefore spring strikeouts may be worth keeping an eye on.
Since certain commenters got all grumbly about yesterday’s boring veteran sleepers, we’ll discuss a handful of young players today. I’m using the same threshold to establish eligibility – anyone taken after pick 288 per NFBC ADP. For 12-team mixed leagues, that leaves everybody after the 24th round. The last cut is Carlos Martinez who otherwise would have made this list.
Back when I first started writing about fantasy baseball, the formula for finding a sleeper was to look for young prospects on the verge of full time reps. The industry has transformed to the point where prospects are almost never a bargain. You’ll find a few sleepers making their debut, but they almost have to be completely unexpected, non-prospects. It’s easier to find pitching in this manner simply due to the nature of the position.
I think the fantasy community at large has successfully rebelled against the word “sleeper” at this point. The major issue being that there isn’t really such a thing given the vast amounts of information freely available to any and all fantasy baseball participants. And yet, when someone says the word, you still have an idea of what they mean. Sure, some have greatly diluted the meaning of the idea by tabbing guys like Nolan Arenado (ADP of 58th overall) or Christian Yelich (84th) as sleepers.
When injury strikes, opportunity arises. This time, Michael Taylor is the beneficiary. Initially expected to step in for Jayson Werth as he recovers from right shoulder surgery, Taylor is suddenly set to enjoy more guaranteed playing time in the wake of Denard Span’s expected absence. Yesterday, Span underwent core muscle surgery, which figures to sideline him for at least four to six weeks. That means that Taylor will now fill in at center field, possibly for the entire first month of the season.
For a different publication I have recently looked at the hitters that all three of Steamer, ZiPS, and Mike Podhorzer’s projections like more and like less than their current ADP. I like this little exercise as a tool to find value. It’s admittedly not a great way to identify sleepers in the sense of identifying breakout players. But it is a good way to identify sleepers in the sense of identifying guys who should give you good return on investment, even if the margins aren’t huge.
To do this little exercise, I simply ran the Pod and ZiPS projections through the old Zach Sanders z-score method, and I took the Steamer rankings from the Auction Calculator. I based the rankings on a 12-team mixed league with 25 roster slots (aka the standard ESPN setup). I then compared the rankings to the ESPN, Yahoo, and NFBC composite ADP from FantasyPros and found the 34 guys that all three projection systems like more than their ADP. Below I’ll discuss a few of the pitchers with the biggest gap between the rankings and ADP, and at the end of the post I’ll list all 34. On Wednesday I’ll look at the pitchers that all the rankings like less than their ADP. Read the rest of this entry »
I spend a lot of time looking at pitching in any given offseason. Doing the starting pitching guide every year makes me fully aware of the pitching pool from top to bottom. I don’t have a similar exercise for digging as deeply into hitters so one thing I like to do is take a look at the part-time players, level set them at 600 PA, and see what shakes out. Let me be clear: extrapolation is dangerous. There is a lot of noise in small samples as there just isn’t enough time for everything to stabilize.
The purpose of this exercise is to unearth some potential playing time breakout candidates. Sometimes opportunity is the only real thing fueling a player’s breakout. I don’t just pick from the top of every leaderboard and tab those as potential breakouts. First off, I use 200-400 PA as the threshold so this will include a lot of injury guys. I think Troy Tulowitzki is on it yearly. Obviously we know about those guys.