Five Actual Young Sleepers
Since certain commenters got all grumbly about yesterday’s boring veteran sleepers, we’ll discuss a handful of young players today. I’m using the same threshold to establish eligibility – anyone taken after pick 288 per NFBC ADP. For 12-team mixed leagues, that leaves everybody after the 24th round. The last cut is Carlos Martinez who otherwise would have made this list.
Although he’s struggled to a .171/.275/.429 line this spring, Kang will travel north with the Pirates. He’ll start the season as a reserve, possibly sharing playing time from Jordy Mercer and Josh Harrison.
He has 20 to 30 home run power, but the rest of his profile remains something of a mystery. He has a track record of stealing 10 to 20 bases in Korea. His success rate has never been good, and he swiped only three bases last season. Run production depends mostly on the surrounding cast. Kang will have to earn RBI opportunities by outplaying other sluggers like Pedro Alvarez and Corey Hart.
In short, if you have room to stash him, there is a lot of upside here. Don’t be surprised if it doesn’t come together until late in the season.
Rodon will start the season in Triple-A. For many, he’s the top pitching prospect to watch (also, Noah Syndergaard). This spring, he’s shown a 96 mph fastball, sinker, wipeout slider, and a changeup. Walks plagued him even as he carved through hitters during his pro debut, so the White Sox are well justified in sending him to Triple-A. However, he did a better job limiting free passes this spring with 19 strikeouts and three walks in 12.1 innings.
In a tough AL Central, the White Sox will need all of their best players. Even if the rotation remains healthy, there will come a point when it’s time to replace John Danks or Hector Noesi.
Johnson is the latest weak bat speedster to potentially grace the majors. He stole nearly 90 bases in 2013. Last season was interrupted by hamstring injuries, yet he still swiped 22 bags. Now healthy, the self-described runningback profiles somewhat similarly to Billy Hamilton and Dee Gordon. However, he’s available at the end of the draft.
He’s yet to be named the starting second baseman, although Robin Ventura characterized him as the “leader.” He’s likely to bat ninth. A full season might include a 80/3/40/60/.265 fantasy line. That’s big late draft value.
The 24-year-old is a well regarded defensive prospect. He has the edge on the left field job, but his grasp isn’t particularly firm. He could also spend some time in center field. He’s performed well this spring with a .306/.395/.500 line.
As a hitter, Marisnick isn’t particularly impressive. However, his skills translate very well to fantasy baseball. He has 10 to 20 home run power with 15 to 30 steal potential. It appears that strikeouts will be a problem as he adjusts to the majors. Expect a low batting average. He’ll probably hit near the bottom of the order.
If you need to reach waaaaay down into the muck, you can give Lamb a look. He’s running hot this spring with a .345/.413/.600 line. Unfortunately, that includes a .453 BABIP and 21.7 percent strikeout rate. Over a full season, Lamb has 10 to 20 home run power. He doesn’t steal bases, won’t hit for a high average, and his role with the club won’t support much run production.
Most fantasy leagues aren’t deep enough to find a place for Lamb. In those where he’s a fringy play, his semi-prospect status and hot spring could turn him into a trade asset. If he keeps swatting doubles in the first week of the season, somebody might be willing to swap you a Chase Headley or similarly useful boring veteran.
Bonus hits: Alex Guerrero, Kendall Graveman, Anthony DeSclafani
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60 SB for Johnson?!
I don’t see why not if he’s hitting .265/.310/.335. He reached base 228 times to swipe 87 bags in 2013. Factoring some regression, he needs to reach base about 170 times to snag 60 SB. I have him down to reach 186 times per 600 PA.
Your line for Micah isn’t late draft value but a mid draft steal. Zips looks more likely if he’s successful.
What are your thoughts on Obdubel Herrera as a sleeper and potential.
It’s funny. I know I was the first fantasy analyst on Herrera in February. Now that he’s won a job, he’s going for more than I’m comfortable. 5-10 HR, 20 SB, and a decent, empty average are possible. Hell, the Phillies might even let him hit near the top of the order.
Of those I listed above, I might take him over Lamb actually. He’s around Marisnick.
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Fixed it
So what would you have said about Carlos Martinez?
Arsenal score loves him, I trust he can get his act together against lefties.
Brad: can you give me some info on DeScaflani? My NL only league is drafting this weekend.
What are his strengths? What are his weaknesses?
The league is a QS league instead of wins, so I’d be interested in him if you think he can deliver ~ 20 quality starts. Thanks.
He’s a guy with a good changeup. I think it’ll be a rocky season, but he’s worth a stash. Don’t plan to use him as one of your primary pitchers.
Cool Story Bro Warning: Feel free to skip. What follows is very specific to the 16 team, 30 man roster league I am in and the perception of players it creates.
My idea of a “sleeper” is so broken. The only fantasy league I care about severely overvalues any young player with any sort of name value. Hell, even the post by Brad Johnson yesterday includes players who are not all “young” were targeted.
In this case, Odubel Herrera is a nice option.
Great suggestion! He is so sleeper worthy that ESPN does not even have him in the player pool yet.
Never mind, ESPN has him as David Herrera and he is already owned.
Odubel Herrera or Brad Miller for 2015? 2016+?
I like your Micah Johnson projection but I think he will get benched in some tough matchups and batting 9th is hard to get 80 runs, still he’s a steal as a late round flyer even if he gets 60/2/30/40/.265 thats a great line for a 4th OF
I picked up Guerrero a week or so ago in a 15 tm league figuring he would get traded or get AB’s since he can’t go to the minors. No indications on either happening, but by listing him here I assume you think he’ll hold value? If so, when?
Talent usually finds a way onto the field. His unique contract is working against him since a trade will make him a free agent after the season.
Every single inning that Marisnick has logged in Spring Training on defense has be in CF. If he’s playing it will be in CF.
The Astros aren’t my team, by I’m aware of that. My comments about left field are based on our depth charts.
Do you know who is responsible for the Astros depth chart? It seems that the projections need to switch on Rasmus and Marisnick regarding CF and LF but I don’t know the proper channel to comment on that.
What are your thoughts on Billy Burns, Jordan Schaefer and Everth Cabrera as sleepers for steals….especially as compared to Jake Marisnick. Thank you.
Nice piece. Lamb doesn’t look like a bavg sink hole to me. High BABIPS at 2 levels could indicate a guy who barrels a lot. Showed solid splits vs. LHP and RHP (usually another good sign of a good bat). Good BB%, Good slug, hits to all field with authority (mostly doubles right now). That’s enough pluses to give a bench slot in a 12mixed. If he hits he’s going to bat 5th, 6th or even 2nd since the DBacks are short on LH pop.
Agree. Brad’s take on Lamb seems badly misinformed to me.
He’s never hit lower than .294 in any level of the minors over any stretch, he’s put up double digit walk rates at A+, AA and AAA, and put up .200 plus ISOs at every level as well. He looked over-matched in 130 PAs last season but was only 23, so that is a bit to be expected, considering he basically skipped AAA.
Looking at the full picture, everything about Lamb is REALLY freaking exciting. Plus adding in the latest info on stabilization of Spring Training Stats, Lamb has seen his BB% grow from 4.5% last season to 8.3% in spring, and K% drop from 27.8% to 21.6%…..all while slugging .600. Really if you are not anything, but frothing over this kid you are wrong…
I think we’ve seen this exact situation 100 times over the last 5 years. 95 of them are disappointing for at least one season. He might hit the ground running, but history tells us to temper our expectations. He’s a growth asset, not an actualized stud.
You can’t do this to me. I wanna believe in the Jung-ho! There’s no reason he can’t replicate his KBO season… I’m thinking .330, 45 homers, 130 RBIs!
OK maybe not but I need to get off the train and you’re not helping man lol… very irresponsible of you!
All over Micah this offseason, drafted him late in every league. Dee Gordon is a very accurate estimate of what he can do if he gets the AB’s. No-one likes these speed-only players (not named Hamilton) but a huge amount of steals can be very valuable particularly at a weak 2B position.