2015 Pod’s Picks: Outfield
Yesterday, I opened 2015 Pod’s Picks season with my infield bullish and bearish selections. Today I’ll finish my look at hitters by moving into the outfield. The bullish group will only include those I ranked within my top 60 and the bearish only players the consensus ranked within their top 60.
Bullish
Consensus Rank: 58 | My Rank: 39
Garcia missed most of last season after suffering a shoulder injury, but possesses an intriguing blend of power and speed. Despite a high strikeout rate, he’s sports a respectable career average due to a high BABIP. But he’s shown the ability to maintain high BABIP throughout his minor league career. His high ground ball rate caps his power potential at the moment, but even going 18/10, which is what I’m projecting, is quite valuable.
Consensus Rank: 39 | My Rank: 22
I discussed the speed guys in The Great Valuation Test: The Divisive Players, and it’s likely that the majority of the disconnect in rankings here is due to valuation differences. Sure, he’ll hurt you in homers and ribbies, but he’s actually a three category contributor as his runs scored should be better than replacement, earning positive value.
Consensus Rank: 62 | My Rank: 47
Boring, boring, boring. But that typically leads to undervaluation. Crawford can’t stay healthy, as his plate appearance high over the last three seasons has been just 469. But he still possesses a touch of power and excellent speed. So assuming at least decent health, that’s 5-10 homers and at least 15-20 steals. It’s the type of production that comes with a little of everything and the sum of the parts is worth more than you realize.
Consensus Rank: 61 | My Rank: 48
Not sure how this happened as I immediately became seriously bearish once he signed with the Mets. I guess everyone else did too, even more so than I apparently! It might be a playing time thing, as he has recorded more than 500 plate appearances just once in the last three seasons, yet I’m projecting 550. I certainly wouldn’t say I like him this year, but he is set to hit fifth in what should be a pretty solid lineup.
Consensus Rank: 20 | My Rank: 8
Finally a top ranked player I like significantly more than everyone else. I’m far more optimistic than Steamer as well and you could find my full projection and explanation where I compared my forecast to the computer system. I’m not 100% confident his at-bats against lefties are safe though, so I’ve only projected him for 550 plate appearances. But if he does stay in there against southpaws and record over 600 plate appearances, it’s possible he nudges his way into top five outfielder land.
Bearish
Consensus Rank: 53 | My Rank: 86
From a skills perspective, I love Castillo. He would have easily been a top 30 outfielder if he was guaranteed full-time at-bats. But in both my AL Tout Wars and local league auctions, I wondered if no one heard or simply didn’t believe, Castillo would enter opening day without a starting job. It’s even possible he begins the year in the minors as I would imagine he’s a guy the Red Sox would want to get every day at-bats, and not just be a platoon bat. So this is strictly a playing time thing, and as long as the Sox hold onto Shane Victorino, he remains healthy and they insist on starting him, Castillo is going to be worthless in shallow leagues.
Consensus Rank: 34 | My Rank: 50
The power surge was a complete fluke. His batted ball distance, average absolute angle and standard deviation of distance all remained nearly identical to 2013, when his HR/FB rate was half of what it was in 2014. And since his desire to swipe a bag has deteriorated, he’s really not that different than what a healthy Crawford should provide.
Consensus Rank: 17 | My Rank: 32
Sure, his batted ball distance suggests serious power upside, but it doesn’t really matter when he’s hitting fly balls less than 20% of the time. Even if Yelich’s 2014 HR/FB rate was actually 15%, which represents quite the spike from his actual 11.5%, he still would have only hit 12 homers, a mere three homer jump from his real total. It just goes to show how much that puny fly ball rate is hampering his home run upside. Batting second now will cost him some plate appearances and he might not attempt as many steals batting directly in front of Giancarlo Stanton.
Consensus Rank: 50 | My Rank: 64
My projection is right in the vicinity of those posted on Granderson’s player page, with my at-bats coming in right between the Fans and the computers. His batting average is a killer, but I would imagine the other rankers are betting the now closer Citi Field fences will help him more than I have (and the other projections) forecasted.
Consensus Rank: 25 | My Rank: 37
I am figuring some rebound in power, but just cannot project 20 steals again. In fact, I’m forecasting just 11, which is the most pessimistic of all the projections. He only really has about average speed, maybe marginally better than that, and will be hitting second in front of the heart of the Cardinals order. I also don’t foresee him being successful on 83% of his attempts again.
Consensus Rank: 16 | My Rank: 28
This is quite a surprise to me as I actually bought him in my local league auction on Sunday at well below my value. That means that the rest of the rankers would have thought I got an even bigger bargain than I did! I’m assuming a partial rebound, but not a full one back to his glory days. Again, that batting average is a killer. I could easily see Bruce finishing closer to the consensus though if his knee was really to blame last year. He’s obviously been that valuable before, as he finished 12th among outfielders in 2013 and 13th in 2012. It’s not often I own a player in the Bearish group, so I’ll actually be rooting against myself here.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Not that I disagree with your overall ranking, but Heyward has definitely more than average speed. He covers a lot of ground with those long legs.
Yup. The guy can run. This is undeniable. It seems that we need to be mindful of the complete refusal of ATL to embrace the running game, as that is likely the primary reason why more of his speed hasn’t manifested itself in his SB totals.
Loving the Dickerson praise have him and cutch in one league and couldn’t be happier. What do you think of blackmon?
Concerned about him falling into a platoon with Stubbs, though he does seem to be fairly valued.
Speaking of Stubbs, I am looking to add a steals guy in a daily lineups league whom I would only use once or twice a week. I’ve narrowed it down to Stubbs, Michael Taylor and Billy Burns. I’m having lots of trouble picking the guy out of those 3.
I only need Carl Crawford to stay healthy long enough for Jayson Werth to mend!
I disagree with granderson. His consensus ranking projects him as a sleeper, in my opinion, and I have two reasons for that: 1) his value has dipped precipitously because of his putrid start to 2014 (as well as his august) and 2) kevin long is working with him as the Mets’s new hitting coach, and the results of his swing adjustments are showing in spring training (.444 avg, 1.269 OPS, 10/5 BB/K ratio.) If the fences were moved in last year, granderson would have had nine more home runs, according to ballpark factors and such. There are a lot of signs pointing to him having a better season than his projections suggest.
How long, if at all, do you wait draft a player well above his ADP?
Let’s day Dickerson’s ADP is 65 and you have him as the 25th rank player. Ian Desmond is your 30th ranked player with an ADP of 30. You have pick #30 and Dickerson is the top player on your board. Which player do you draft?
Need more context like what other OFers and SSs are available and their respective ADPs. A lot goes into determining my pick, but without knowing any of that, I’d likely go Desmond. Also matters is when my next pick is and how likely it is that Dickerson is still available at that point.
I know it is it not that simple. 🙁
Is it a good rule of thumb in the early and mid rounds to not draft a player say x% above his ADP? (with exceptions of course) ?
The whole premise being that the expected value of grabbing Desmond first is greater despite the risk of losing out on Dickerson.
There’s really no rule, as a snake draft is very much art, rather than science when you account for ADP. I was in a similar odd position in the 2nd round of LABR, ultimately resulting in my pick of Billy Hamilton 20th overall.
lol. I was going to reference your Hamilton article.
I am surprised you did not wait till your next pick because I am thinking there was a decent chance that you could of gotten him at 40. If someone else drafted him, you probably could of gotten Revere with a pick in the 60-80 range.
Pod, what are the chances that Angel Pagan is just as valuable as Carl Crawford? 75%?
His price should be very depressed. He’s another “if he is healthy” players.
Funny, Pagan was originally going to be on the Bullish list, but then I realized I was probably too optimistic on the playing time and subsequently lowered my PA projection. He was still undervalued after that change, but less so. So agree with your thoughts.
Pod, what is your take on Souza? Do you like him better than Avisail Garcia? Garcia is on the waiver wire right now, and I am tempted to jump, but I would have to drop Souza. Thanks!
Own him in Tout Wars with OBP, he’s much more valuable in that format than in average. In an AVG league, I like Avisail better. I still don’t like outright dropping Souza though if you have someone else worse to drop.
Who would you prefer more in an OPS league? Would Souza still get the nod? Thanks again.
It’s closer, but I have Avisail with a .746 ops and Souza .736. Pretty darn close, but still Avisail.
Thanks, Pod. I appreciate the input.
Avisail could really surprise in SBs–like 25-30. Bunch of good indicators — GM says Avisail is a 30 sb guy. Garcia showed up to camp much lighter than he has been. Vince Coleman in camp, new emphasis on run game. And he’s hitting 5th, so a less than stellar pct. won’t get him shackled to 1b.
Can’t exactly count on that, from a guy who’s never done it. But 10 just doesn’t feel right. I bet they let him run a bunch.