Finding Actual Sleepers – Infield Edition

I think the fantasy community at large has successfully rebelled against the word “sleeper” at this point. The major issue being that there isn’t really such a thing given the vast amounts of information freely available to any and all fantasy baseball participants. And yet, when someone says the word, you still have an idea of what they mean. Sure, some have greatly diluted the meaning of the idea by tabbing guys like Nolan Arenado (ADP of 58^th overall) or Christian Yelich (84^th) as sleepers.

First off, you can’t be a sleeper when you’re regularly going in the top 100. The more apt word for guys like that is probably “breakout”. Of course, there are still guys going very late in drafts who will deliver well above their cost. They may not be traditional sleepers like the ones you could find 10-15 years ago who were so far off the radar that two-thirds of your league would look up with a “Who?” after you selected them. In fact, very few guys will get selected these days that your competition won’t be fully aware of, but you can still mine talent out of those late-round selections.

Let’s look at some hitters going after pick 240 this year who can fit the bill as legitimate sleepers. Why pick 240? In a 12-team draft with the standard 23-man roster, there will be 276 players picked and pick 240 marks the end of the 20^th round, so these are all guys who are going in those last three rounds (or later), when you can start to get a little freer with your picks knowing full well that you may end up churning those spots a good bit in-season if your sleeper, under-valued, whatever-you-want-to-call-them picks don’t pan out.

Billy Butler, 1B, OAK (Pick 275) – In his first seven seasons of play, Butler had proven himself to be a solid fantasy asset despite a lack of overwhelming power at first base. His average line saw him hit .298 with 17 HRs and 80 RBIs. In 2012, he showed his upside with a .313-29-107 uprising, but immediately dipped to .289-15-82 a year later which represented a reasonable floor for Country Breakfast. So obviously we were all thrown for a loop by his .271-9-66 effort from 2014, but that was accompanied by a career-worst 6.9% HR/FB rate while his .310 BABIP was a six-year low (only time he was lower was a .294 in ’08).

An offseason move to Oakland has left him forgotten as an overhaul in the Bay Area has left their entire offense a bit neglected and the reputation of that ballpark is generally overblown (in respect to the fact that we all know it’s a pitcher’s park, but it’s not IMPOSSIBLE to hit there), especially compared to Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City. The switch is about neutral for righties, with a couple of ticks upward in home run park factor. Butler’s batted ball profile from 2014 didn’t marry with his average and power drop which bodes well for a rebound.

A career-low .673 BABIP on line drives cost him a handful of hits for sure. Adjusting it to his career mark of .758 adds five hits to his ledger. The aforementioned HR/FB rate was well below his 10.9% career mark and if we level-set that, he gets five homers. All of a sudden he’s at .290 with 14 HRs which is right in line with the average (8 points of AVG and 3 HRs is within reasonable variance levels) we’d grown to expect from Butler.

There is nothing in his 2014 profile that suggests those two factors can’t return to his career levels again in 2015. It’s hard enough to find a .290 AVG out of a full-timer this late in a draft, but to do so with 15+ HR potential is especially nice. The number of 15 HR-hitters fell to a 10-year low last year (94) and was below 100 for the first time since 1995. That season was artificially held down by the shortened schedule, so 1993 is the last full year we saw fewer than 100 guys pop 15+ bombs.

Year	15+ HR
1990	74
1991	87
1992	64
1993	93
1994	67
1995	92
1996	118
1997	113
1998	124
1999	138
2000	145
2001	127
2002	138
2003	132
2004	143
2005	131
2006	143
2007	131
2008	122
2009	132
2010	120
2011	109
2012	129
2013	106
2014	94

Additionally, Butler regained 1B-eligibility so you don’t have to worry about filling your utility spot with him.

Also consider: Mike Napoli (258) and Allen Craig (397)

 

Brandon Crawford, SS, SFG (321) – In today’s game, playing time is gold. We don’t see guys playing 162 games at the rates of yesteryear. Cal Ripken Jr.’s consecutive games streak is now among the safest records in the books (it probably was extremely safe already, but it feels safer than ever these days). In fact, the game’s longest current streak was just broken with the injury to Hunter Pence, who had played 383 straight heading into Opening Day. With the depressed offense, playing time offers counting category upside. Additionally, teams are more open to platoons to get every bit offense out of their roster.

This leaves defensive stalwarts like Crawford with some hidden value. His excellent glove work at a premier defensive position essentially guarantees his name on the lineup card almost regardless of his bat. This has been the case over the last three seasons, but he has rewarded the Giants by improving his offensive output every season. Last year was his first above average with a 102 wRC+ and fantasy offerings of 10 HRs, 69 RBIs, and 5 SBs pushed him to an $11 output. At 28 years old, I don’t think he’s done growing.

I think he has a bit more power in his bat and could settle around the low-to-mid teens with his homers. His batted profile was vastly different last year and if it’s here to stay, it is much more conducive to leaving the yard. After being a heavy groundballer for his first three seasons (1.5 GB/FB), he dropped to 0.9 with a career-high 42% flyball rate. He has never approached the league average 10% HR/FB rate (career at 6%; 2013-14 at 7%), but if he could with this new flyball approach, he’d be looking at 15-16 HRs easily.

His improved plate discipline (11% BB rate) doesn’t appear to be a mirage, either. He did bat eighth for about 38% of his PA last year which can artificially inflate a batter’s walk rate, but Crawford still had a healthy 10% rate in his time out of the eighth spot which were spent primarily in the seven-hole (10.2% in 255 PA). If he at least continues walking at this clip or maybe even improves, then perhaps the Giants would consider a move to the two-spot for Crawford which would greatly improve his runs scored potential.

Unfortunately that eight-hole slotting does cut into his base-stealing opportunities, but he does have legitimate double-digit potential. He was a little shaky with his efficiency in the minors and it’s been even worse in the majors, but it’s hard to make much out of 20 opportunities in 1810 PA, even if he is just 8-for-20. I think he has the raw speed for 8-10 SBs.

The middle infield position can be remarkably difficult to fill and Crawford has the playing time piece in place because of his defense, but some skills growth has made him a viable option in many formats, or at least a watchlist option who could reasonably rise up for a .255-15-70-8 season which a lot more valuable than you might think. This is basically what many expected from Andrelton Simmons last year for many of the same reasons, but he may just need the seasoning that Crawford already has with a 400 PA edge on Simmons.

Also consider: Chris Owings (329) and Everth Cabrera (407)

 

Nick Castellanos, 3B, DET (307) – The fantasy community isn’t terribly forgiving with prospects. If they don’t hit the ground running a la Ryan Braun, they are essentially forgotten. Castellanos is the latest to meet this fate. Castellanos wasn’t really overdrafted like many rookies are so his underwhelming season didn’t really burn anybody, but it seems the general consensus has soured on him for 2015. There isn’t anything in his 2014 profile that directly points to a huge breakout. Of course if there were multiple metrics or trends doing so, he probably wouldn’t be the 307^th player off the board on average. Instead, this is a bet on the pedigree of a blue-chip prospect who held his own in a full season at age-22.

He hit just .259 despite an AL-best 28.5% line drive rate, second to only Freddie Freeman (31%). A strong line drive rate doesn’t guarantee you a big batting average, but only Chase Headley (.243) and Alejandro De Aza (.252) were lower than Castellanos among the top 10 in LD%. The group hit .280 as a whole.  Coming up through the minors, he was seen as someone who could deliver a strong batting average with solid pop. We started to see that in 2014 with .259 and 11 HRs, both of which were about average for the position.

While Crawford is a longshot to work his way up the Giants lineup, Castellanos seems like a great fit for the two-hole in Detroit. Anthony Gose is currently penciled into that spot, but Castellanos is a markedly better option across the board. Up there, 75 runs scored and driven in are in play for Castellanos and even a small development step with his average and power offers the potential for a .280-75-15-75 season. That would be on the high end of things, but even a .270-60-13-70 season would be very useful and it doesn’t take any real leaps to envision that line.

Also consider: Trevor Plouffe (349) and Lonnie Chisenhall (377)