2015 Pod’s Picks: Infield

Due to the busy preseason schedule of posts I had to publish, the 2015 version of Pod’s Picks is being unveiled later than ever before. But I refuse to skip a year because it’s always fun comparing my rankings to the rest of the rankers and discovering who was closer at season’s end. Rather than drag things out by posting just one position a day like I have in the past, I’m grouping them into infield, outfield and starting pitchers to bring us into the start of the season (finally!).

I calculated the average rank of the three rankers in the Rotographs Rankings Update and then compared to my ranking within each position. As usual, I will limit my Bullish picks to those I have ranked as startable players in a standard 12-team league and Bearish picks to those the consensus has ranked as startable.

Catcher

Bullish

Matt Wieters

Consensus Rank: 15 | My Rank: 6

It’s most certainly a question of at-bats and how he performs in his return from Tommy John surgery. But, I’m only projecting 432 at-bats, so it doesn’t feel like I’m being overly optimistic. Last October, Jeff Zimmerman shared his research on hitters who have come back from TJ surgery and found no ill effects whatsoever, which led to him expecting a full bounce back. I do as well.

Chris Iannetta

Consensus Rank: 28 | My Rank: 21

One of the fun things about doing this is that I inevitably uncover a player that I’m apparently more bullish or bearish on than the rest that I would have never guessed. Iannetta is one of them. Who knew I liked him more than the other three?! Or perhaps worded more accurately, who knew they were even more bearish than I was?! With Hank Conger gone, I’m projecting a career high in plate appearances of 450. That is undoubtedly the entire reason behind my less bearish ranking I would imagine. He’s a strong OBP league play.

Bearish

Wilin Rosario

Consensus Rank: 13 | My Rank: 24

Every time I see him ranked or get drafted/auctioned in my leagues, I wonder if I’m the only one who read the news. Nick Hundley is the primary backstop with Michael McKenry his backup. Rosario isn’t expected to catch much, if at all, but rather earn his playing time mostly against left-handers, filling in at first and, gulp, in the outfield corners(?). In that scenario, he’s looking at 200-250 plate appearances, 300 at absolute max, absent a major injury that pushes him back into every day duty. That’s just not enough playing time to contribute in mixed leagues.

Tyler Flowers

Consensus Rank: 22 | My Rank: 30

Perhaps this, too, is a playing time thing. I’m projecting very similar stats as Steamer, but ever so slightly more optimistic. The Fans, however, are expecting more than 100 additional plate appearances compared to Steamer. If the other three rankers are leaning toward the Fans side, that’s the root of the disagreement. I’m also forecasting a sad .214 average, which is an absolute killer.

First Base

Bullish

No one. Wow. Aside from the tied average top ranking of Paul Goldschmidt and Miguel Cabrera in the consensus, my ranks and the consensus from one through eight are exactly the same. Crazy!

Bearish

Justin Smoak

Consensus Rank: 24 | My Rank: 42

Holy Smoak! How the heck did this happen? One of my Bold Predictions called for Smoak launching 25 long balls and batting .260! So color me shocked that he ranked as my most bearish pick compared to the other three. Once again, this might come right down to playing time. I’m projecting just 450 at-bats, as he already figures to platoon with Danny Valencia, plus Dioner Navarro still exists and he might start a game here and there at DH when Edwin Encarnacion plays first. And Smoak will certainly be sitting in NL parks. What’s interesting is how amazingly close all Smoak’s projections are, and sure enough, mine falls right in there with the rest. Just goes to show that there’s no bias or subjectivity in my projections.

Chris Carter

Consensus Rank: 11 | My Rank: 24

There we go. Finally a player I knew would make it. He was a HR/FB rate overachiever, so I don’t think he nears 40 homers again, will kill your batting average and is part of a logjam of first base/DH candidates. The latter could cost him playing time if he hits an extended slump.

Second Base

Bullish

Chase Utley

Consensus Rank: 13 | My Rank: 10

Ughhh. I have to defend this now?! That lineup is brutal, but hey, he’ll be batting third and that’s good, right? Looks like my projections are a bit more optimistic all around, as I’m figuring a slightly larger dead cat bounce than is being forecasted.

Bearish

Arismendy Alcantara

Consensus Rank: 19 | My Rank: 28

I don’t think I’m truly bearish on Al-contra as his power and speed combination is intriguing. The issue here is that of playing time. With Javier Baez getting sent down, his plate appearance projection jumps, but Baez could be back at any point, pushing Alcantara back into a utility role. It’s going to be hard to carve out mixed league value if he falls back into a 350 plate appearance pace. At this moment, I’m still only projecting 400 plate appearances, though admittedly I wouldn’t be shocked if he reaches 500. If I up his projection to 500 plate appearances, he becomes the 22nd ranked second baseman, but that’s seemingly his ceiling for this year in terms of playing time I’d imagine.

Jedd Gyorko

Consensus Rank: 15 | My Rank: 22

Heading into the season, I thought I would end up feeling like Gyorko would be a great value late. After finishing my projection, I no longer felt that was the case. Even if the power returns, something I’m actually projecting with a 20 homer forecast, he’s not going to hit for average or contribute in steals. And with a poor OBP and batting in the bottom half of the lineup, he’s going to be only marginally better than replacement level in runs scored at best.

Shortstop

Bullish

Chris Owings

Consensus Rank: 19 | My Rank: 11

Obviously, the fear here is that Owings loses his starting job to Nick Ahmed. Though there is also the possibility that Owings slides over to second and Aaron Hill is either traded or plays third. Until confirmation of what happens with Owings is made, I will continue to operate under the assumption that Owings is a starter…somewhere on the diamond. He’s got some power and speed and should be marginally beneficial in batting average. If he does depart spring training with a starting job and you’re in need of a shortstop, it’s likely he’s freely available on your wire, so you should pounce.

Bearish

Xander Bogaerts

Consensus Rank: 10 | My Rank: 18

It’s true, some bonus points should be awarded for getting to be called Xander. Oops. You have to be hoping for serious improvements across the board to believe he’ll be a valuable mixed league asset. Last season he struck out too much, didn’t walk, showed puny power backed by a weak batted ball distance and doesn’t steal bases. He’s also slated to hit eighth, and even though our projections forecast the Red Sox to boast the best offense in baseball, eighth is a bad spot in any lineup. I get the optimism spawned from his recent top prospect status and solid minor league record, so I guess the feeling is that a breakout could come at any time. But there are no signs of it unless you want to dive into tiny sample size territory. It’s just blind optimism boosting his draft day price.

Jean Segura

Consensus Rank: 7 | My Rank: 12

I was the optimist last year, believing his power surge was real and expecting a strong follow-up. Now I have reversed course, but most of that is due to his lineup slot. Like Bogaerts above, Segura is going to open the season batting eighth. But unlike Bogaerts, batting eighth in the National League is far worse than in the American League. And given his putrid OBP, it’s unlikely he hits any higher than seventh all season, absent an injury. So it’s going to be difficult for Segura to rack up the counting stats and how often is he really going to attempt a steal with the pitcher at the plate? Even a marginal batting average rebound isn’t enough to get him into my top 10.

Alexei Ramirez

Consensus Rank: 5 | My Rank: 10

Until he went for nearly triple my dollar value in my Tout Wars auction, I didn’t realize I was so bearish on Ramirez. I think the power rebound was a fluke and at age 33, don’t think he’s going to repeat those 20+ steals. He’s also set to hit toward the bottom of the White Sox order, which is further down than he has the past two years. The move is going to hurt his counting stats and make it highly unlikely he comes close to exceeding 650 plate appearances again. I have a feeling the majority of fantasy owners have failed to account for this.

Third Base

Bullish

Ryan Zimmerman

Consensus Rank: 12 | My Rank: 6

Another non-surprise, as I figured Zimmerman would be undervalued back in late November. He was a HR/FB rate underachiever, and given good health, is an excellent candidate to return to the 20+ home run plateau.

Josh Harrison

Consensus Rank: 15 | My Rank: 10

I’m just as afraid to draft him as everyone else, but apparently I still believe his speed and power combination, even figuring in some regression, is enough to allow him to remain plenty valuable.

Bearish

Kris Bryant

Consensus Rank: 10 | My Rank: 17

Blasphemy! I’ve been gradually upping his plate appearance projection, but have finally settled on 500 and am not increasing it any further. While most figure he’ll be up about two weeks after the seasons begins, it’s no guarantee. We’re all just guessing. Oh, and his spring training exploits have likely made most forget that he struck out 28.6% of the time at Triple-A last year. That means a 30% mark could be in the cards with the Cubs, so he’ll need a strong BABIP just to be neutral in batting average and not hurt fantasy teams in the category. Then the usual rookie caveats apply, though it’s admittedly difficult to poke holes in his game outside of the strikeouts.

Matt Carpenter

Consensus Rank: 11 | My Rank: 16

He’s far below replacement level in two categories, marginally positive in steals and batting average and plus-plus in runs scored. Added all together, it’s just a boring profile that just isn’t worth a whole lot in fantasy leagues.

Kyle Seager

Consensus Rank: 3 | My Rank: 8

I’m confused. He only finished fifth in Zach Sanders’ rankings last year, are fantasy owners expecting Seager to improve again? I’m figuring some standard regression, dropping him three places in the ranks, with projections just about in line with Steamer and ZiPS. I just don’t forecast players to keep improving every single year.