2015 Pod’s Picks: Infield
Due to the busy preseason schedule of posts I had to publish, the 2015 version of Pod’s Picks is being unveiled later than ever before. But I refuse to skip a year because it’s always fun comparing my rankings to the rest of the rankers and discovering who was closer at season’s end. Rather than drag things out by posting just one position a day like I have in the past, I’m grouping them into infield, outfield and starting pitchers to bring us into the start of the season (finally!).
I calculated the average rank of the three rankers in the Rotographs Rankings Update and then compared to my ranking within each position. As usual, I will limit my Bullish picks to those I have ranked as startable players in a standard 12-team league and Bearish picks to those the consensus has ranked as startable.
Catcher
Bullish
Consensus Rank: 15 | My Rank: 6
It’s most certainly a question of at-bats and how he performs in his return from Tommy John surgery. But, I’m only projecting 432 at-bats, so it doesn’t feel like I’m being overly optimistic. Last October, Jeff Zimmerman shared his research on hitters who have come back from TJ surgery and found no ill effects whatsoever, which led to him expecting a full bounce back. I do as well.
Consensus Rank: 28 | My Rank: 21
One of the fun things about doing this is that I inevitably uncover a player that I’m apparently more bullish or bearish on than the rest that I would have never guessed. Iannetta is one of them. Who knew I liked him more than the other three?! Or perhaps worded more accurately, who knew they were even more bearish than I was?! With Hank Conger gone, I’m projecting a career high in plate appearances of 450. That is undoubtedly the entire reason behind my less bearish ranking I would imagine. He’s a strong OBP league play.
Bearish
Consensus Rank: 13 | My Rank: 24
Every time I see him ranked or get drafted/auctioned in my leagues, I wonder if I’m the only one who read the news. Nick Hundley is the primary backstop with Michael McKenry his backup. Rosario isn’t expected to catch much, if at all, but rather earn his playing time mostly against left-handers, filling in at first and, gulp, in the outfield corners(?). In that scenario, he’s looking at 200-250 plate appearances, 300 at absolute max, absent a major injury that pushes him back into every day duty. That’s just not enough playing time to contribute in mixed leagues.
Consensus Rank: 22 | My Rank: 30
Perhaps this, too, is a playing time thing. I’m projecting very similar stats as Steamer, but ever so slightly more optimistic. The Fans, however, are expecting more than 100 additional plate appearances compared to Steamer. If the other three rankers are leaning toward the Fans side, that’s the root of the disagreement. I’m also forecasting a sad .214 average, which is an absolute killer.
First Base
Bullish
No one. Wow. Aside from the tied average top ranking of Paul Goldschmidt and Miguel Cabrera in the consensus, my ranks and the consensus from one through eight are exactly the same. Crazy!
Bearish
Consensus Rank: 24 | My Rank: 42
Holy Smoak! How the heck did this happen? One of my Bold Predictions called for Smoak launching 25 long balls and batting .260! So color me shocked that he ranked as my most bearish pick compared to the other three. Once again, this might come right down to playing time. I’m projecting just 450 at-bats, as he already figures to platoon with Danny Valencia, plus Dioner Navarro still exists and he might start a game here and there at DH when Edwin Encarnacion plays first. And Smoak will certainly be sitting in NL parks. What’s interesting is how amazingly close all Smoak’s projections are, and sure enough, mine falls right in there with the rest. Just goes to show that there’s no bias or subjectivity in my projections.
Consensus Rank: 11 | My Rank: 24
There we go. Finally a player I knew would make it. He was a HR/FB rate overachiever, so I don’t think he nears 40 homers again, will kill your batting average and is part of a logjam of first base/DH candidates. The latter could cost him playing time if he hits an extended slump.
Second Base
Bullish
Consensus Rank: 13 | My Rank: 10
Ughhh. I have to defend this now?! That lineup is brutal, but hey, he’ll be batting third and that’s good, right? Looks like my projections are a bit more optimistic all around, as I’m figuring a slightly larger dead cat bounce than is being forecasted.
Bearish
Consensus Rank: 19 | My Rank: 28
I don’t think I’m truly bearish on Al-contra as his power and speed combination is intriguing. The issue here is that of playing time. With Javier Baez getting sent down, his plate appearance projection jumps, but Baez could be back at any point, pushing Alcantara back into a utility role. It’s going to be hard to carve out mixed league value if he falls back into a 350 plate appearance pace. At this moment, I’m still only projecting 400 plate appearances, though admittedly I wouldn’t be shocked if he reaches 500. If I up his projection to 500 plate appearances, he becomes the 22nd ranked second baseman, but that’s seemingly his ceiling for this year in terms of playing time I’d imagine.
Consensus Rank: 15 | My Rank: 22
Heading into the season, I thought I would end up feeling like Gyorko would be a great value late. After finishing my projection, I no longer felt that was the case. Even if the power returns, something I’m actually projecting with a 20 homer forecast, he’s not going to hit for average or contribute in steals. And with a poor OBP and batting in the bottom half of the lineup, he’s going to be only marginally better than replacement level in runs scored at best.
Shortstop
Bullish
Consensus Rank: 19 | My Rank: 11
Obviously, the fear here is that Owings loses his starting job to Nick Ahmed. Though there is also the possibility that Owings slides over to second and Aaron Hill is either traded or plays third. Until confirmation of what happens with Owings is made, I will continue to operate under the assumption that Owings is a starter…somewhere on the diamond. He’s got some power and speed and should be marginally beneficial in batting average. If he does depart spring training with a starting job and you’re in need of a shortstop, it’s likely he’s freely available on your wire, so you should pounce.
Bearish
Consensus Rank: 10 | My Rank: 18
It’s true, some bonus points should be awarded for getting to be called Xander. Oops. You have to be hoping for serious improvements across the board to believe he’ll be a valuable mixed league asset. Last season he struck out too much, didn’t walk, showed puny power backed by a weak batted ball distance and doesn’t steal bases. He’s also slated to hit eighth, and even though our projections forecast the Red Sox to boast the best offense in baseball, eighth is a bad spot in any lineup. I get the optimism spawned from his recent top prospect status and solid minor league record, so I guess the feeling is that a breakout could come at any time. But there are no signs of it unless you want to dive into tiny sample size territory. It’s just blind optimism boosting his draft day price.
Consensus Rank: 7 | My Rank: 12
I was the optimist last year, believing his power surge was real and expecting a strong follow-up. Now I have reversed course, but most of that is due to his lineup slot. Like Bogaerts above, Segura is going to open the season batting eighth. But unlike Bogaerts, batting eighth in the National League is far worse than in the American League. And given his putrid OBP, it’s unlikely he hits any higher than seventh all season, absent an injury. So it’s going to be difficult for Segura to rack up the counting stats and how often is he really going to attempt a steal with the pitcher at the plate? Even a marginal batting average rebound isn’t enough to get him into my top 10.
Consensus Rank: 5 | My Rank: 10
Until he went for nearly triple my dollar value in my Tout Wars auction, I didn’t realize I was so bearish on Ramirez. I think the power rebound was a fluke and at age 33, don’t think he’s going to repeat those 20+ steals. He’s also set to hit toward the bottom of the White Sox order, which is further down than he has the past two years. The move is going to hurt his counting stats and make it highly unlikely he comes close to exceeding 650 plate appearances again. I have a feeling the majority of fantasy owners have failed to account for this.
Third Base
Bullish
Consensus Rank: 12 | My Rank: 6
Another non-surprise, as I figured Zimmerman would be undervalued back in late November. He was a HR/FB rate underachiever, and given good health, is an excellent candidate to return to the 20+ home run plateau.
Consensus Rank: 15 | My Rank: 10
I’m just as afraid to draft him as everyone else, but apparently I still believe his speed and power combination, even figuring in some regression, is enough to allow him to remain plenty valuable.
Bearish
Consensus Rank: 10 | My Rank: 17
Blasphemy! I’ve been gradually upping his plate appearance projection, but have finally settled on 500 and am not increasing it any further. While most figure he’ll be up about two weeks after the seasons begins, it’s no guarantee. We’re all just guessing. Oh, and his spring training exploits have likely made most forget that he struck out 28.6% of the time at Triple-A last year. That means a 30% mark could be in the cards with the Cubs, so he’ll need a strong BABIP just to be neutral in batting average and not hurt fantasy teams in the category. Then the usual rookie caveats apply, though it’s admittedly difficult to poke holes in his game outside of the strikeouts.
Consensus Rank: 11 | My Rank: 16
He’s far below replacement level in two categories, marginally positive in steals and batting average and plus-plus in runs scored. Added all together, it’s just a boring profile that just isn’t worth a whole lot in fantasy leagues.
Consensus Rank: 3 | My Rank: 8
I’m confused. He only finished fifth in Zach Sanders’ rankings last year, are fantasy owners expecting Seager to improve again? I’m figuring some standard regression, dropping him three places in the ranks, with projections just about in line with Steamer and ZiPS. I just don’t forecast players to keep improving every single year.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Seager will continue to improve and might even become the next Jose Bautista and hit 40 home runs and bat .400 and kiss babies and visit hospitals and win the triple crown and make the allstar team and cure cancer and say all the right things to all the right people and be a great clubhouse presence and volunteer at the local food drive and, in general, just really kick ass at being a baseball player/human being/savior/badass/gentleman/lover/role-model/third baseman/humanitarian.
What I mean is that I’m not bearish on Kyle Seager.
We thought 2012’s 108 wRC+ was his ceiling, given the scouts’ utility guy projection. Then we thought 2013’s 115 wRC+ was it, now we assume 2014’s 126 wRC+ was absolutely a career year. At this rate he’ll be Barry Bonds by 2017.
Mike why do you hate Kyle Seager so much? Was he the one-armed man? Kidding. I’m pretty close to you on project. I traded Seager away this offseason but ended up with him again after my hopes for Miggy fell through. He does have the rare split stat for a left-side of the IF guy of being noticeably better against RHPs, so I look to platoon him some with Pedro Alvarez (1B/3B/Util in Yahoo) and get Seager on the bench as much as possible against good lefty starters.
More than Alcantara’s playing time, I worry about his inability to make contact and the high whiff rate. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was the one sent down when they call up Bryant or Baez.
I’m not terribly worried about it. His MiLB K% was much lower, and I’d expect that he would adjust. I’m also not worried about his spring K% because small samples in meaningless games, knocking off the rust, uneven competition, etc, etc, etc. I can’t remember who did it, but I remember reading an article on FG’s talking about how rookies generally K at much higher rates and it’s often a combination of the huge jump in competition vs AA and AAA, and pressing at the plate (after all, you don’t walk your way on to an MLB roster). He could still be bad, but I’m willing to bet against another 30% K rate.
In non-keeper leagues and non-head to head leagues I really can’t argue with your Kris Bryant ranking.
1. He has to be called up.
2. He has to prove he can hit MLB pitchers.
Do we really have confidence that Morneau will stay healthy all season and/or not get traded midseason? Also, Rosario has been talked about (not sure exactly where he’s been playing in ST, I’ve only seen him at 1B) for getting time in the OF. If the Rockies are serious about trading him, you’d have to think that he’d get more reps to showcase his power. So while I’m concerned about his future C eligibility, I wouldn’t be shocked if he got 400 AB’s, which is solid for a C.
If the Rockies had any sense at all, Morneau and Rosario would be in a straight platoon at 1B. With McHenry starting most days at C and Rosario spelling him now and then. Both Rosario and Morneau have wRC+ platoon splits of 70+ points.
Given Morneau struggles against LHPs and Rosario’s combo of power and weakness behind the plate, I’m betting it only take until May to make the platoon completely evident to the Rockies.
The problem with banking on a trade scenario is if you take Rosario out of Coors I’m still not sure he’s anything more than a #2C. Check out his splits. Over the last 4 years he’s mashed at home and been a 20HR/.242 guy on the road. That’s if he gets traded and if he goes somewhere that he gets full-time at bats. I think he’s got upside from where Mike has him projected (based mostly on playing time), but he has a lot of downside based on what he costs you in auctions/drafts.
His H/R splits for his career aren’t so huge that they can’t be explained by him hitting better at home, a common occurence for most hitters. In fact, the difference between his H/R splits is much narrower than Hollidays were. I’m not saying that he’s another Holliday, he’s not even close, just that the splits themselves don’t seem large enough to me to cause worry. Even if he’s only a 90-100 wRC+ hitter instead of a 109 after the trade, that’s still not terrible for a catcher.
If he does get moved off of catcher and finds his way into FT AB’s though, his career away splits would have him as a 25 HR hitter in 550 PA’s. A .242-25 type is great at C, but I don’t really see him going unless he’s just killing it in CO and a team in need of RH power makes a deadline move. Morneau is the one here that I think gets moved. Of course, both could be moved to make room for Paulsen. CO has a lot of option on how to play this.
I don’t know that Owings skills are really all that better than Gyorko’s, especially in an OBP league.
What worries me about Gyorko is all the tinkering he does with his swing. I like my hitters loose and dumb.
(Kinda how I like my women. ba dum dum.)
I don’t understand why you are so bearish on Gyorko despite saying he could hit 20 homers again, and then bullish on Zimm because he should hit 20 homers again. Gyorko is going far later and 2B eligable?
Because home runs isn’t the only category!
That bit on Segura batting 8th is a carbon copy of a write-up I read going into the 2013 season. I avoided him, he blew up, and spent almost the entire year in the #2 spot. And I thought “huh, yeah. Of course he won’t keep batting 8th if he hits well.”
However… assuming he’ll hit well is a big assumption. He’s a nice mixed league option because if he hits well and moves up in the order, he’s extremely valuable. And if he hits poorly and stays 8th, he’s almost useless. Dangerous for NL Only though.
I don’t understand why Seager’s consensus ranking confuses you. One of the players ahead of him is on the DL and another will soon be 36. Even if Seager regresses, he may still move up a couple spots in the rankings.
Matt Carpenter’s write-up seems a bit cursory and strange to me. Calling his BA marginally above average seems questionable. And are his RBI totals of 78 and 59 the past two years really “far below replacement level”? Not in most leagues, I’d guess. I understand if you don’t like the elite runs profile… but trying to paint him as a one or two category contributor is pretty tough to support. The points you raise are the reasons most people believe he isn’t one of the best options at third, but to then drop him down further for the same reasons is double jeopardy.
I think there is enough volatility at 3B this year that positions 3-8 are mostly preference for risk management. And that, combined with hopes of an improved Mariners offense, is why Seager is so well liked: other than his slight spike in ISO, his 2014 looked very similar to his 2013, which looked similar to his 2012. Sure, he improved, but those were marginal gains, not the sort that create risk of bust-level regression.
I think 3 is high, but five is probably my comfort level with him; eight feels too low. But that is my own appetite for risk, as guys like Beltre and Frazier and Longo and Arenado make me nervous enough to avoid their average ADP/auction price relative to guys like Seager and Santana and Chris Davis.