Man, no one saw this coming. Didi Gregorius ended up finishing 11th in fantasy value this year, actually making him worthy of a starting shortstop slot in shallow mixed leagues! We certainly didn’t expect this. Our preseason rankings valued him as just the 22nd best shortstop, and the most bullish ranking had him at 16th. Although he only improved marginally on the offensive side from a real baseball perspective, he made enough small gains to push himself into fantasy asset territory.

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Right now I am in the middle of writing preseason player profiles for several publications. Like most people, I examine a player’s stat page for most of the information. Additionally, I have access to our database and have created some cheat sheets to help with looking for possible changes in a hitter’s profile to help explain stat changes like a significant bump in home runs. Today, I’ll start with making my hitter sheet available and go over a few players with the information.

I find hitters to be the tougher than pitchers to determine if changes in production are from a new approach or from just plain luck. To help find such changes in approach, I determine changes in several metrics which would point to an overall talent adjustment. The stats I examine are:

Swing based
Pull%
GB%
Hard%

Eye base
BB%
K%

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Asdrubal Cabrera has had a number of up and down seasons in the past few years, and from my outside perspective it seems to be, at least in some part, related to a significant quadriceps injury he suffered in 2013 (view the video). Cabrera entered the 2013 season as a two time All Star shortstop, and during the first two months he was off to a pretty standard Asdrubal Cabrera type season: above average offense and mediocre defense.  After this injury, from which he missed three weeks of playing time, he languished offensively for more than two entire months.  From June 26th, the day he returned, until September 4th, he produced a miserable .221/.276/.329 line with .267 wOBA and 65 wRC+. From September 6th on, he went back to his more standard .272/.330/.519 with .368 wOBA and 134 wRC+.  With the benefit of hindsight, we can all agree he likely came back from his quad injury too soon. 

The struggles of the 2013 season may have prepared Cabrera for his 2016 campaign, as it turned out to be very similar to 2013 in many ways.  During spring training, Cabrera suffered another quadriceps related injury, this time to his patellar tendon, the bit that connects your kneecap to your lower leg.  This injury served to plague him throughout the season, leading him to the disabled list in early August after suffering what, to me anyway, looked like a potentially serious injury (view the video).  Similar to 2013, Cabrera came back from this injury exceptionally quickly, this time missing only 18 games, but, unlike 2013, this time came back with a fury. And a new hair color.

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I was bearish on Addison Russell heading into the 2016 season. It had far more to do with his likely placement in the Cubs’ batting order than his actual performance expectations. Because he recorded all his plate appearances from the bottom half of the order, he amassed just 598 of them, despite remaining healthy all season and missing nary a game due to injury. That hurt his counting stats, though aside from his mediocre runs scored total, were still fairly strong from a fantasy contribution perspective. They could have been better, of course. A spot in the bottom half of the lineup had something to do with his rank of just 16 in fantasy earnings among shortstops (17 if you include Jean Segura). So although his home run total jumped from 13 to 21 and ISO spiked from .147 to .179, he was still a disappointment to fantasy owners.

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Eduardo Nunez: 2017 Projection

The 29-year-old Nunez went from being a Twins bench player to a top-40 fantasy player. Looking over his year-to-year profile he was basically the same player he’s been for his career, but he was given a full season of plate appearances for the first time in 2016. For example, his 2016 triple slash line (.288/.325/.432) is almost identical to his 2015 line (.282/.327/.431).

Two small differences, besides the playing time which was a huge difference, were important with his 2016 season. The first was an improving power profile.

I am a little worried the home runs may not be as high playing in San Francisco, but they should be in the double digits.

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If you joined me for yesterday’s Way Too Early Rankings, I spent most of the article discussing the ridiculous depth atop the shortstop depth chart. The first seven guys are stars. The eighth guy is Jean Segura (unlisted in the linked article). He’s one repeat season away from joining the fantasy stars of the position.

As with second base, shortstop is typically a place you go in the late rounds for stolen bases and empty batting average. That’s all changed. While it’s not as deep as second base, there are enough high quality options for most leagues.

The breakout seasons of 2016 fell into two categories: young players getting their first shot and mushroom-fueled veterans. You know the one I’m talking about, it’s red with white polka dots. Using these two profiles, let’s try to predict who might outperform expectations in 2017.

Before we continue, I want to be clear about something. Most of what we’re discussing below can be categorized as exceedingly unlikely. I’m just trying to find players who may improve in some kind of predictable way.

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Corey Seager recorded just 113 MLB plate appearances in 2015, but he made a big splash with his performance and the lack of a track record didn’t stop the RotoGraphs ranking crew from placing him fifth among shortstop in the preseason. I was even more bullish, as my projections valued him as the second best shortstop! Seager ultimately finished fourth according to our end of season dollar values (fifth if including Jean Segura), but that probably undersells him, as he was just as good as hoped for.

Let’s recap my 2016 Pod Projection and see how my forecasts compared to his actual results.

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This is the fifth edition of a continuing series. If you missed the previous rounds, last week’s post on third basemen also has links to the other positions. Yesterday, we reviewed what happened in 2016 including the surprising discovery that Corey Seager’s lack of stolen bases put him a full tier behind the top of the class.

As a reminder, these rankings represent my first reactions rather than a truly rigorous approach. I’ve used an absolutely objective technique called mental math to compile the lists. I’m assuming a standard 5×5 format.

The purpose of this exercise is two-fold: to get an early start on 2017 rankings and to crowdsource missing or misranked players. That’s where you come in. Let your thoughts and feelings be known in the comments. As we’ve done in previous editions, we’ll break this into digestible chunks.

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Entering 2016, Marcus Semien was shrouded in uncertainty. After a strong offensive start to 2015, his renewed focus on defense in the second half drew acclaim from many around the league, though it appeared to coincide with a massive two-month slump during which he hit .199/.246/.281 and left the yard just twice.  He also stopped running, or at least stopped running well. He stole just two bases during that stretch while being thrown out thrice.

As such, Semien entered 2016 a popular pick by some as a potential power-speed breakout candidate. However, his floor, due in large part to his dilettantish defensive rep and contact woes, felt uncertain and low. Which Semien were fantasy owners going to get? The 20-20 threat we saw through the first two months of the season, the defensively-focused but offensively-hapless work-in-progress, or the well-rounded and powerful young shortstop who put it all together at the end?

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Positional Scarcity and Shortstops

Today at RotoGraphs, we start examining shortstops. At First Pitch Arizona, experts were stating that position scarcity is not an issue in 2017 except with catcher. Owners might think they don’t need to pay extra for filling their shortstop position and they can just get the best hitting talents. This statement is true for some leagues and for others, it is completely false. Scarcity depends entirely on each league’s individual settings. The two main factors which can make a league play differently are the required roster positions and the stats counted.

As for a position comparison, our own Ottoneu requires three middle infield spots and only two corner spots. Corner infielders are in less demand than in these leagues with three corner spots. Additionally, owners are usually complaining about the catcher options, but in my 20-team industry and local AL-only leagues, they require only one catcher. Some catcher options exist on the waiver wire. If the required number was two, catcher values would skyrocket.

The other difference is the stats counted. In normal roto leagues, stolen bases are a category and they give shortstops a huge value boost. In a linear weights league, the value of stolen bases becomes non-existent and then positional scarcity exists for shortstops.

If you want to read some detailed look at calculating position scarcity value, read the links at the beginning of this article by our own Mike Podhozer.

Trevor Story: 2017 Projection Read the rest of this entry »