Corey Seager recorded just 113 MLB plate appearances in 2015, but he made a big splash with his performance and the lack of a track record didn’t stop the RotoGraphs ranking crew from placing him fifth among shortstop in the preseason. I was even more bullish, as my projections valued him as the second best shortstop! Seager ultimately finished fourth according to our end of season dollar values (fifth if including Jean Segura), but that probably undersells him, as he was just as good as hoped for.

Let’s recap my 2016 Pod Projection and see how my forecasts compared to his actual results.

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This is the fifth edition of a continuing series. If you missed the previous rounds, last week’s post on third basemen also has links to the other positions. Yesterday, we reviewed what happened in 2016 including the surprising discovery that Corey Seager’s lack of stolen bases put him a full tier behind the top of the class.

As a reminder, these rankings represent my first reactions rather than a truly rigorous approach. I’ve used an absolutely objective technique called mental math to compile the lists. I’m assuming a standard 5×5 format.

The purpose of this exercise is two-fold: to get an early start on 2017 rankings and to crowdsource missing or misranked players. That’s where you come in. Let your thoughts and feelings be known in the comments. As we’ve done in previous editions, we’ll break this into digestible chunks.

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Entering 2016, Marcus Semien was shrouded in uncertainty. After a strong offensive start to 2015, his renewed focus on defense in the second half drew acclaim from many around the league, though it appeared to coincide with a massive two-month slump during which he hit .199/.246/.281 and left the yard just twice.  He also stopped running, or at least stopped running well. He stole just two bases during that stretch while being thrown out thrice.

As such, Semien entered 2016 a popular pick by some as a potential power-speed breakout candidate. However, his floor, due in large part to his dilettantish defensive rep and contact woes, felt uncertain and low. Which Semien were fantasy owners going to get? The 20-20 threat we saw through the first two months of the season, the defensively-focused but offensively-hapless work-in-progress, or the well-rounded and powerful young shortstop who put it all together at the end?

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Positional Scarcity and Shortstops

Today at RotoGraphs, we start examining shortstops. At First Pitch Arizona, experts were stating that position scarcity is not an issue in 2017 except with catcher. Owners might think they don’t need to pay extra for filling their shortstop position and they can just get the best hitting talents. This statement is true for some leagues and for others, it is completely false. Scarcity depends entirely on each league’s individual settings. The two main factors which can make a league play differently are the required roster positions and the stats counted.

As for a position comparison, our own Ottoneu requires three middle infield spots and only two corner spots. Corner infielders are in less demand than in these leagues with three corner spots. Additionally, owners are usually complaining about the catcher options, but in my 20-team industry and local AL-only leagues, they require only one catcher. Some catcher options exist on the waiver wire. If the required number was two, catcher values would skyrocket.

The other difference is the stats counted. In normal roto leagues, stolen bases are a category and they give shortstops a huge value boost. In a linear weights league, the value of stolen bases becomes non-existent and then positional scarcity exists for shortstops.

If you want to read some detailed look at calculating position scarcity value, read the links at the beginning of this article by our own Mike Podhozer.

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In reality, Corey Seager was indisputably the top shortstop of 2016. Fantasy is not reality. It’s axiomatic. We value things in our fantasy world, like stolen bases, that just aren’t very important in the real universe. I think you probably know where I’m going with this – Seager is not the top shortstop because he didn’t steal bases. Those things are important. I’d argue it’s doubly important for your middle infielders to be base thieves.

In case you’re just tuning into this series for the first time, I recommend going back in time and starting from the beginning. Luckily, you won’t need a time machine. The post on catchers has notes on important methodological changes. You can also go straight into the calculator to tweak values for your league.

For these articles, I’m going to assume a 12 team, 5×5, standard deep roster with a pitching cap of 1475 innings (most leagues are 1450 or 1500, I split the difference). I set the batter split at 65% because that produces what I consider to be the most realistic position adjustments.

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It’s shortstop week, so let’s get the ball rolling on a player I was notoriously bearish on heading into the season. I wasn’t technically pessimistic about Xander Bogaerts, I just felt that he was being massively overvalued by fantasy owners. Oops, I was wrong. Though I did get some things right. He was a particularly difficult player to project as his batted ball profile completely changed from 2014 to 2015. So much so that he appeared to be a totally different player. Which version of Bogaerts would show up in 2016? It was anyone’s guess.

Let’s see how my 2016 Pod Projection compared to his actual results.

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Though we knew that Jonathan Villar entered the 2016 season with the every day shortstop job in Milwaukee, we were so certain he wouldn’t hold onto that role for very long. You see, the Brewers had top prospect Orlando Arcia waiting in the wings at Triple-A, and we all figured he would be up by June. Instead, Villar got off to a strong start and then kept hitting, and Arcia didn’t end up debuting until August. The team eventually made room for both of them in their lineup, as Villar shifted over to third. Because Villar got that extended opportunity and ran with it (pun intended), he ended up ranking as the fourth most valuable third baseman (his shortstop rank will be published soon) and earning $26.40. How many of you expected him to earn even $10?!

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In 2015 Manny Machado finished the season as the #1 overall shortstop with 1,040 points, and it wasn’t really close, as Xander Bogaerts finished a distant 2nd with 787 points. But raw points aren’t everything, and since all Ottoneu leagues are auction leagues, true player value has to be measured as the result of production and cost (salary).  So which players were the most valuable to their owners in 2016?

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We’ve done a good thing for those of you that still care about fantasy baseball right now. The Auction Calculator now has 2016 stats as an option so that you can look backwards at what has just happened. That’s going to be part of our effort, on the way to the end of the year, to look at last year to learn more for next year.

This is an important part of fantasy that usually gets ignored. Not only does the league itself change year to year, so retrospection is important in that way, but we can learn things about fantasy itself that will improve our ability to value players going forward.

The fourth-best player in the game last year, by this list, has already inspired a possible change to the auction calculator going forward. Let’s see what else it jars loose.

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Earlier this week, I broke down the home run surge at catcher and first base, highlighting those who hit at least 20 homers and identifying some who could do the same in 2017. Today, I’ll be looking at second base and shortstop.

SECOND BASE

The keystone arguably experienced the most growth out of the power surge with an all-time high 15 players hitting at least 20 homers while qualifying at the positon. The previous high was 10 set in 2009 and if you add up the last four years combined, you only get 12. Yes, second base was where you could make power deficiencies from Giancarlo Stanton’s injury or Bryce Harper’s underperformance. It was kinda nuts. Here’s who did it:

Brian Dozier 42, Robinson Cano 39, Rougned Odor 33, Jedd Gyorko 30, Ian Kinsler 28, Daniel Murphy 25, Jonathan Schoop 25, Jose Altuve 24, Jason Kipnis 23, Neil Walker 23, Matt Carpenter 21, Starlin Castro 21, Jean Segura 20, Logan Forsythe 20, and Ryan Schimpf 20

Dozier and Cano were the only two to accomplish the feat last year. The last time more than four players hit 20+ HR at second base was 2011 when eight got it done. It’s not just that so many hit 20+, it’s that four were at 30+ and the aforementioned Dozier and Cano were 35+. The last time two second basemen went for 35+ in a season was 2003 when Bret Boone and Alfonso Soriano achieved the feat. Soriano was joined by Jeff Kent the year before, too.

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