The Home Run Surge by Position (2B and SS)

Earlier this week, I broke down the home run surge at catcher and first base, highlighting those who hit at least 20 homers and identifying some who could do the same in 2017. Today, I’ll be looking at second base and shortstop.

SECOND BASE

The keystone arguably experienced the most growth out of the power surge with an all-time high 15 players hitting at least 20 homers while qualifying at the positon. The previous high was 10 set in 2009 and if you add up the last four years combined, you only get 12. Yes, second base was where you could make power deficiencies from Giancarlo Stanton’s injury or Bryce Harper’s underperformance. It was kinda nuts. Here’s who did it:

Brian Dozier 42, Robinson Cano 39, Rougned Odor 33, Jedd Gyorko 30, Ian Kinsler 28, Daniel Murphy 25, Jonathan Schoop 25, Jose Altuve 24, Jason Kipnis 23, Neil Walker 23, Matt Carpenter 21, Starlin Castro 21, Jean Segura 20, Logan Forsythe 20, and Ryan Schimpf 20

Dozier and Cano were the only two to accomplish the feat last year. The last time more than four players hit 20+ HR at second base was 2011 when eight got it done. It’s not just that so many hit 20+, it’s that four were at 30+ and the aforementioned Dozier and Cano were 35+. The last time two second basemen went for 35+ in a season was 2003 when Bret Boone and Alfonso Soriano achieved the feat. Soriano was joined by Jeff Kent the year before, too.

Altuve had a power boost last year that some were skeptical about him maintaining, so he went ahead and added nine more to his total and set another new career high. I don’t know that there’s even more ahead, but I think he can live in the 18-24 range for the next couple of years. We aren’t talking about speed here, but it’s worth noting that he went just 7-for-14 in the second half on the basepaths after 23-for-26 in the first half. I wonder if the speed will be a casualty of the power improvement and shift into the three-spot of the lineup.

Kinsler’s 28 matched his 2014-15 combined total and was his first time north of 20 since 2011. Schoop still has 30-homer upside in my estimation. Gyorko hit 16 homers in 128 games last year, but popped 30 in the same amount this year. I’m dubious on this surge, but he did seem to sellout for it with career-best pull and flyball rates. The 24% HR/FB just can’t hold after 16%, 10%, and 14% rates in his previous three seasons. Only three players have repeated a 24% or better HR/FB rate the last two years: Nelson Cruz, Khris Davis, and Chris Davis. I’m not sure Gyorko’s power is on their level.

The best candidate to join this list next year is, of course, Javier Baez. If he has a strong NLCS (and perhaps a World Series… look it up, Cubs fans, it comes after this round of playoffs), then you’re really going to pay to get those homers in 2017. Hell, even if he doesn’t, he’s going to cost you.

Hype was through the roof as a prospect before being tamped down by a 42% (not a typo) strikeout rate in his 229 PA debut. His 2015 was lost to injury and tragedy, but he rebounded with a very impressive 2016 spent almost entirely with the big league club. He cut the strikeout rate to a manageable 24% and flashed the power/speed combo (14 HR/12 SB) that could turn him into a fantasy star. He only started 68% of the 142 games he played this year, but I fully expect that number to rise for the multi-positional stud heading into his age-24 season.

Speaking of hyped players, Trea Turner will not be cheap at all next year. The 23-year old did more in 73 games (13 HR/33 SB) than throngs of other players did in twice as many games. Obviously his pace would easily eclipse 20, but I’m not so sure he’ll reach that threshold. I know we can’t just take minor league numbers as exactly who players are, but he hit 19 homers in 1192 PA coming up and then 13 in 324. Love Turner’s game, but I see more of a 17 HR/50 SB kind of season than the 29/74 pace of his gaudy rookie numbers.

Brett Lawrie would’ve been right around the 20 mark had he matched his 602 PA from 2015 and kept the homer pace we saw in his 94 games with the White Sox. It seems like he’s been around forever, but he’ll only be 27 years old next season so I wouldn’t rule out a new career-high in homers, especially the ball continues its PED regiment this offseason.

SHORTSTOP

Shortstop arguably experienced the most growth out of the power surge with an all-time high 15 players hitting at least 20 homers while qualifying at the positon. Yep, shortstop matched second base in 20+ HR hitters. The previous high was set in 2004 when nine players did it. There is some overlap with guys qualifying at both second and short, but even removing them would yield a new high.

Manny Machado 37, Brad Miller 30, Gyorko 30, Trevor Story 27, Marcus Semien 27, Corey Seager 26, Troy Tulowitzki 24, Danny Espinosa 24, Asdrubal Cabrera 23, Xander Bogaerts 21, Addison Russell 21, Carlos Correa 20, Didi Gregorius 20, Freddy Galvis 20 (lolwut?), and Segura 20

Oh, hey what’s up Freddy Galvis? Just go ahead and hit 20 HR in your first 1153 MLB PA and then pop 20 in 624 this year. No big deal. Seems chill. I definitely won’t view that as a sign of the impending apocalypse. While we’re at it, we have to discuss Miller. Sure, he’s viewed as more of a power threat than someone like Galvis, but he only hit 29 homers in 1243 PA prior to this season before the 30 in 601 PA this year. But the ball is unchanged. Riiiiight.

While we’re mentioning these guys who essentially doubled their career homer output in one season, I’ll point out that Bogaerts had 20 in 1298 PA before this year and then 21 in 719. But that’s less fishy because I told y’all it was coming!

Cabrera might feel like one of the bigger surprises on the list, but his 23 are that far out of bounds after consistently popping a mid-teens total for four seasons after his 25-homer breakout in 2011. His .280 average with the power surge is more surprising, to be honest.

Correa only hitting 20 is probably a bigger surprise than some of the guys who made the list. Carlos Correa hit as many homers as Freddy Galvis this year. Of course, once you read Eno’s piece on Correa and injuries, it makes a little more sense. It highlights another reason that simply extrapolating a player’s small sample is incredibly dangerous.

The grind of those six months in the majors is so different than anything these players have ever experienced. I know I sometimes mention full-season paces (as with Turner, for example), but I never view them as a player’s skill level or use them as an expectation for production, even if they have a track record. Even though Hanley Ramirez had displayed elite-level talent for multiple full seasons, you still couldn’t extrapolate out his 86-game 2013 line (189 OPS+) as some previously untapped reservoir skill improvement. Had he played a full season, he likely would’ve finished in his 2007-09 range (145 OPS+). He likely has an 80-something game stretch in all three of those seasons that looks similar the 2013 run.

Gregorius was yet another near-doubler, with his 20 homers giving him a total of 42 for his career, but I buy this one. I think his swing fits well with that park (though his 11/9 home/road split is perfectly reasonable) and we could see a few 18-24 HR seasons out of him.

Francisco Lindor had an excellent season. He’s similar to Turner in that his power explosion upon arrival was very unexpected. He hit 12 in 438 PA after 21 in 1880 minor league PA. He backed it up with his 15 homers this year and I think we could see him push toward 20 in the near future, though maybe not in 2017.

Any other second basemen or shortstops that you think could reach the 20-homer plateau next year?





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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Paul22
7 years ago

Hard to predict anything w/o knowing if MLB continues with the juiced ball or scales it back when the strike zone gets approved