Mixing Fantasy & Reality: Positional Scarcity, Story & More

Positional Scarcity and Shortstops

Today at RotoGraphs, we start examining shortstops. At First Pitch Arizona, experts were stating that position scarcity is not an issue in 2017 except with catcher. Owners might think they don’t need to pay extra for filling their shortstop position and they can just get the best hitting talents. This statement is true for some leagues and for others, it is completely false. Scarcity depends entirely on each league’s individual settings. The two main factors which can make a league play differently are the required roster positions and the stats counted.

As for a position comparison, our own Ottoneu requires three middle infield spots and only two corner spots. Corner infielders are in less demand than in these leagues with three corner spots. Additionally, owners are usually complaining about the catcher options, but in my 20-team industry and local AL-only leagues, they require only one catcher. Some catcher options exist on the waiver wire. If the required number was two, catcher values would skyrocket.

The other difference is the stats counted. In normal roto leagues, stolen bases are a category and they give shortstops a huge value boost. In a linear weights league, the value of stolen bases becomes non-existent and then positional scarcity exists for shortstops.

If you want to read some detailed look at calculating position scarcity value, read the links at the beginning of this article by our own Mike Podhozer.

Trevor Story: 2017 Projection

Going into the 2016 season, I was fairly high on Story even before the Jose Reyes news broke. Story took the shortstop job right out of spring training and his season took off with the 10 home runs he hit in April. Most owners weren’t interested in Story before the season started. He showed signs of power in the minors (e.g. 20 home runs in 2015), but his near 30% K% scared off owners. He needed a high BABIP to maintain a decent batting average with the strikeouts dragging him down. Coors Field gave him the needed boost with a .382 BABIP at home while only .302 on the road.

His possible Rookie of the Year season was going great until he torn his thumb in early August. Going into 2017, I expect owners will forget how desirable Story was to start the season and his expectations will be muted.

I plan on the strikeouts to staying around the 30% level and the BABIP to drop a bit so a .250 AVG can be expected. As for the home runs, he averaged around four per month after the April breakout which would put him around 24 for a full year. I could see someone go with 30 and I couldn’t really argue. Steamer split the difference and went with 27 (same number as in 2015).

The Runs should be around 85 and RBI around 95 if he plays a full season. If an owner goes with more home runs, bump these up accordingly. From 2013 to 2015, he averaged over 20 steals a year across all levels. His eight stolen bases in two-thirds of 2016 could easily get a boost into double digits. I am going to go with a conservative projection for Story, but I could see several facets for him improving over his projections with additional home runs and stolen bases. I am not going to have a problem going the extra dollar or two for Story.

2017 Projection (with upside): .250 AVG, .320 OBP, 24 (30) HR, 12 (20) SB, 85 (95) Runs, 95 (105) RBI

Notes

• This post-surgery statement on Mookie set off my Spidey senses.

Mookie Betts underwent a successful right knee arthroscopy, chondroplasty and loose body removal on Thursday, the Red Sox announced Friday. The star right fielder is expected to be fully recovered by Spring Training.

Most of the time with minor surgeries, the team statement states a certain player will be “100% for spring training”. This one leaves a little room for error and when talking about a top fantasy talent, I am not a fan of using a top pick on a player I have doubts about. I really want to see him running all out and not missing some games before taking him #2 overall.

• Josh Bell may miss some at-bats with John Jaso being a late inning defensive replacement.

Bell figures to be an everyday player next year, and he’ll probably spend most of his time at first base. But he still may receive the Pedro Alvarez/John Jaso treatment, replaced for defensive reasons when the Bucs have a late-inning lead.

After Bell arrived for good this past season, manager Clint Hurdle said he trusted Jaso — who quickly turned into a reliable defender — to field first base in key situations.

• I just found one of my favorite sleepers for next season in Charlie Tilson. The 24-year-old Tilson came over from the Cardinals as part of the Zack Duke trade. Tilson played one game in center field for the White Sox and was lost for the season. Right now he looks to be the White Sox’s starting center fielder according to Scott Merkin.

Tilson is progressing nicely and remains on track to be without restrictions at the start of Spring Training per the White Sox. Tilson, who came over from the Cardinals in the Zach Duke trade at the Deadline, tore his left hamstring during his first game with the White Sox while trying to make a diving catch in right-center field at Comerica Park and then underwent season-ending surgery.

There’s little doubt Tilson is in the picture regardless of the direction of the team. But he could be more of a featured player in center in a rebuild, with the White Sox letting their young core grow together.

The key with Tilson is that he could be a great stolen base play after swiping 50 bases in 2015 combined over all the minor league levels and the AFL. I don’t expect him to steal 50 bases, but his 65-grade speed puts his projection at 20 stolen bases which are in line with his initial Steamer projections.

• As for a pitching sleeper, I am s huge Cody Anderson fan. Right now though he is recovering from elbow surgery.

Cody Anderson was one of the Indians’ feel-good stories last spring, when he followed up a strong rookie showing by winning a spot in the Opening Day rotation. Early-season struggles, followed by elbow issues in the middle of his campaign, then made for a challenging year for the right-hander.

On Thursday, the Indians announced that Anderson underwent an arthroscopic debridement of his right elbow on Wednesday at TMI Sports Medicine in Dallas, where Dr. Keith Meister performed the procedure. Anderson is expected to be able to initiate a throwing program in approximately eight weeks (early January), putting him on target to be ready in time for the regular season.

The 26-year-old Anderson started 2016 in the Indians’ rotation with a 2 mph faster fastball. The fun didn’t last long with him posting a 2.1 HR/9 rate and a .355 BABIP. He was then sent to the minors and missed some time with elbow discomfort. He eventually made it back to the majors but as a reliever.

Using my per pitch ERA grades (pERA), I have his fastball and curve performing at a league average level with his change as a plus pitch. He has the three pitches to succeed as a starter, but he didn’t put it all together. I thought about doing a Quick Look on him, but with a DL stint, time in the minors, and being a relief pitcher in the season’s second half, I backed away. I am really interested to see how he is throwing spring training.

• Steven Souza Jr. is feeling great and is expected to be healthy before spring training.

On Sept. 21 in Nashville, Dr. Thomas Byrd performed a surgery to remove tissue from a labral tear and impingement of Souza’s left hip, easing the Rays outfielder’s pain.

“You don’t really realize how much pain you were in until it’s gone,” Souza said. “Having pain on the field was one thing, but the quality of life at home, being able to sit down for an extended period of time, had been extremely difficult. You compensate in so many different areas just to try and get comfortable.

“Now my hip is doing great. I’m about five weeks away from starting to sprint. I’m very pleased with the outcome.”

….

“They said they felt a million times better the next season,” Souza said. “I’m excited to come in and play 162 games at 100 percent ability. Obviously, the goal is to win a championship. So I hope to be 100 percent day-to-day to help us win.

….

He figured the earlier he had it done, the better chance he had to be on the field by Opening Day 2017.

Like Souza, the Rays believe he’ll be back on the field in time for the start of next season.

“We’re expecting that he’ll be fine come spring,” said Chaim Bloom, senior vice president of baseball operations. “That was one of reasons that he shut it down early, to make sure that he had as much time as possible to recover from that. The surgery went well. His rehab is going well. It’s a process to get back up to full proficiency, but right now we’re expecting to be ready to go when the bell rings.”

Souza is tough to roster with his strikeout rate expected to be north of 30%. He gives the owners who can handle the batting average sink some home runs and stolen bases. The fact that his performance suffered from the injury and he continued to play through it may have his projections on the low side for 2017. I could see him being a nice value play

• Trevor Rosenthal will be stretched out to make a go as a starter.

The Cardinals stress that stretching out Rosenthal doesn’t earmark him for a specific role. The door is open to him to define it. Likewise, the team intends for Wacha to be ready to shoulder the workload of a starter. Both are expected to be full strength for spring after missing time in 2016 with injury. Rosenthal was the team’s closer before a tear in his right forearm led to inconsistency that allowed Seung Hwan Oh to seize the ninth. Wacha returned from his stint on the DL to appear in relief late in 2016.

I just don’t see Rosenthal cutting it as a starter. He throws an above average fastball (which will play down as a starter) and change. He has a slider, but it is barely playable. Additionally, with his fastball playing down, he won’t get the strikeouts needed to get out of the jams created by his high walk rate (15% in 2016, 10% for his career). I expect him to give starting a try, but he is most likely headed back to the bullpen.