Marcus Semien Makes Adjustments, Treads Water

Entering 2016, Marcus Semien was shrouded in uncertainty. After a strong offensive start to 2015, his renewed focus on defense in the second half drew acclaim from many around the league, though it appeared to coincide with a massive two-month slump during which he hit .199/.246/.281 and left the yard just twice.  He also stopped running, or at least stopped running well. He stole just two bases during that stretch while being thrown out thrice.

Two-Month Splits
2015 HR wRC+ SB-CS SwStr%
April-May 6 115 6 8.40%
June-July 2 45 -1 10.30%
August-October 7 132 1 8.40%

As such, Semien entered 2016 a popular pick by some as a potential power-speed breakout candidate. However, his floor, due in large part to his dilettantish defensive rep and contact woes, felt uncertain and low. Which Semien were fantasy owners going to get? The 20-20 threat we saw through the first two months of the season, the defensively-focused but offensively-hapless work-in-progress, or the well-rounded and powerful young shortstop who put it all together at the end?

Semien finished 2016 with 27 home runs, 72 runs, 75 RBI, and 10 steals, while matching his career high walk rate. By transforming himself from the worst fielding shortstop in 2015 to essentially league average, he simultaneously rewarded the A’s faith in him while mitigating fears that his suspect fielding could cost him at-bats and the valued counting stats contingent upon them.

Had you known Semien would accomplish these feats in the pre-season, chances are you would have taken him well ahead of his average draft position of about 230. Yet, Semien was just the 14th most valuable player at his position at the end of 2016, making him a borderline starter in standard leagues. His 27 home runs, which would have led all shortstops in 2015, were 10 short of the lead in 2016. Even Freddy Galvis and Didi Gregorius hit 20 jacks, a feat accomplished by just nine shortstops over the previous three seasons combined. And Semien’s 75 RBI, which would have ranked 3rd last season, were barely good enough to crack the top 10 in 2016.

Ultimately, Semien provided value with homers, barely broke even with respect to steals, and cost you in every other category. Still, we know that runs and RBI are a function of many things other than a player’s talent. So, let’s take a closer look at Semien’s hit tool, which on the surface seems to have taken a step back, his burgeoning power, and declining speed.

Semien finished the year with a .238 batting average, despite a strong walk-rate and stable strikeouts. A cursory glance at his player page reveals an uncharacteristically low BABIP. In fact, aside from a short Arizona Fall League stint in 2013, this season’s .268 BABIP was the lowest of his professional career. As one might suspect, hitting 27 homers, even in this inflated offensive environment, requires a fair amount of fly balls. Sure enough, Semien posted a 42.9% fly ball rate, good enough for 2nd among shortstops and 22nd overall, while hitting for the lowest line drive rate of his career. If we use Alex Chamberlain’s equation to calculate Semien’s xBABIP, we find that his actual BABIP was just four points lower than his expected. More fly balls combined with fewer line drives and balls hit to the opposite field plus a declining speed score all translated to fewer hits. More power but fewer hits.

Semien also became more aggressive this season as his swing rate rose, both in the zone and out. It’s kind of a remarkable feat that despite chasing and whiffing more often, he also managed to increase his walk rate without an appreciable jump in strikeouts. Still, without going to the opposite field more often and with the quality of his opposite field ground balls declining, it’s tough to envision a rebound in batting average without a significant change in approach or an improvement in contact skills.

Opposite Field Grounders
Soft% Med% Hard%
2015 35.30% 41.20% 23.50%
2016 38.50% 53.90% 7.70%

If we’ve learned anything about Semien since his well-chronicled defensive struggles, it’s that he’s willing to go to work on his weaknesses. Though I can only speculate, it’s not inconceivable that he focuses on his approach going the other way in the off-season. In fact, it’s something he addressed during the season, admitting it’s difficult. Newsflash: baseball is hard. But given the frequency with which pitchers challenged him over the outside part of the plate this year, even a slight improvement going the other way could pay significant dividends.

A look at Semien’s Statcast data reveals some promising developments with respect to the sustainability of his power surge.

Statcast Data
Avg EV Avg FB/LD EV Avg GB EV Brls/BBE Brls/PA
2015 87.4 92 81.5 4.50% 2.80%
2016 88.3 92.9 83.5 6.90% 4.30%

Here we see across the board improvement in the quality of Semien’s contact. Since we’ve already touched on his struggles going to the opposite field, these improved exit velocities would therefore intimate he’s been more successful at pulling the ball, no?

Pulled fly balls
Soft% Med% Hard%
2015 10.50% 29.00% 60.50%
2016 5.90% 31.40% 62.80%

Sure enough, we see an improvement in the quality of pulled fly balls. But not only that, Semien increased the percentage of fly balls he hit to left field as well, giving himself more opportunities to leave the yard. And while his HR/FB% sits a couple percentage points higher than league average, he also ranked 66th in batted ball distance out of 257 players with 190 balls-in-play. Semien enters next season at 26 so it’s not difficult to see him maintaining or even improving upon the power output he exhibited in 2016.

But while 26 represents a peak on the hitter’s aging curve, it’s a more dubious milestone when we turn to speed.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-stolen-base-aging-curve-depicted/

Semien stole just one fewer base in 2016 but his efficiency masks the drop in how frequently he took off. After attempting 16 steals in 2015, he tried just 12 times this season, ranking 14th among shortstops. Additionally, Semien’s speed score dropped from 5.5 last season to 4.4 this year and if his hit tool prevents him from reaching first base as often (though that is somewhat mitigated by an increase in walks), Semien will also have fewer opportunities.

Given the dearth of speed in the game – 2015 and 2016 featured the fewest stolen bases over the last 30 years, excluding the strike shortened 1994 season – stolen bases are now more important than ever. A middle infielder who experiences a sudden burst of power at the expense of both speed and stolen base opportunities, is less valuable than he may have been just a couple of years ago.

As an A’s fan, I’ve been encouraged watching Semien grow as a player this season and his improvements have largely assuaged the fears of a fan base lukewarm to trading away Addison Russell. The changes he’s made are both real and sustainable. Unfortunately, they are also less relevant for fantasy players. For the right price, he can still be a worthwhile investment and looking at the names just ahead of him on the auction calculator, it’s not hard to envision him justifying a starting spot in standard 12-team leagues. However, unless he improves at going the other way or more unlikely, bucks the aging curve and starts running more, Semien’s promising power spike simply means his upside is that of an adequate option playing a position that’s getting deeper and more impressive by the year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 





Rylan writes for Fangraphs and The Hardball Times. Look for his weekly Deep League Waiver Wire and The Chacon Zone columns this season.

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Mark Davidson
7 years ago

Because of the rapid, recent influx of talent at SS and this year’s power spike, it is a little bit of a mind F that semien was 14th overall. 27, 10, 70s R + RBI would’ve been fantasy gold a few years ago. He’ll still make a valuable MI pick, imo. Nice breakdown and write up, btw.