Archive for Roto

Is there really anything worse than having to chase saves? Sure, chasing steals isn’t fun either but given that saves can often be as much about opportunity as talent, spending FAAB to play a weekly carnival game of Whack-a-Closer is extra annoying. So, let’s take a break from the save race and talk about some non-closing (NC) relievers that can return overall value even if they’re not going to supply much of the glamour stat that everyone desires.

Using NC relievers isn’t going to be for everyone and a lot of that will depend on your current team construction and categorical goals. For example, if your pitching scores are fine with ratios but lacking in the counting (wins, strikeouts, saves) stats, you’re probably going to be better served by using lesser starters, more often. Or, maybe you’re like me and due to poor performances and/or injuries have had to punt ratios in favor of throwing any (and every) starter against the wall.

However, some lucky ducks are tracking pretty with their counting stats but maybe need some ratio help. Or perhaps you’re ahead of the game enough to shine up your ratios but not so much ahead that you can afford to do so while letting your attention to wins and strikeouts lapse. For those traveling this middle-ish path, rotating (or holding) NC relievers can offer the best of both worlds. Read the rest of this entry »

Streaming pitchers is an art form in the fantasy baseball community. Analysts making streamer picks are daring and brave when it comes to putting their picks out there for the world to see. It’s not an easy game. Streaming a pitcher who blows up my ratios is one of the most frustrating aspects of fantasy baseball in my humble opinion, but it happens (don’t act like it doesn’t). But, taking the time to deep dive on a pitcher before streaming can limit the likelihood of having your ratios inflated like a grocery store helium balloon. Here’s how you can take some time with our pitch-type linear weights.

Read the rest of this entry »

A starting pitcher going three times through the order has been one of those analytically driven game tactics that have had an effect on the game-by-game innings accumulation of starting pitchers. Fantasy managers playing in standard 5×5 roto-leagues know that the only way to decrease a ratio statistic like WHIP ((BB + H) / IP), is to add more numbers into the denominator (IP) while keeping the numerator (BB + H) the same. A pitcher who goes three times through the order is also likely to accumulate a lot of innings. The more quality innings accumulated, the better off your ratios will be. If a starting pitcher faces the lineup a third time and it’s only the fourth inning, chances are they are not going back out for the fifth. So, if we find pitchers who consistently face the order in its entirety a third time, we can generally assume it’s because they are pitching well.

Read the rest of this entry »

Hi. My name is Dave McDonald. Some of you may know me from Twitter (@RunDMcD), others by my team name and Twitter display name (Less than Dave), and maybe even some will be familiar with my work in Michael (@SPStreamer) Simione’s Draft Guide where I wrote a very in-depth strategy section. Many of you won’t know me at all yet – and that’s fine too. I’m a high stakes fantasy baseball player – specifically the 5×5 standard rotisserie (roto) game.

How do you define “high stakes” you ask? No one really knows. My friend John Laghezza (@MLBMovingAvg) attempted to find out the answer to this question awhile back.

How do you define a high stakes fantasy league?

— John Laghezza MLB / NFL Moving Averages (@JohnLaghezza) March 13, 2021

The poll was decidedly undecided on the topic. Also, John’s poll didn’t include higher options above a $1,000 entry fee. I know some people would classify high stakes as $2,500+ (which is actually how NFBC defines it as their “high stakes” leagues are $2,500-$15,000 entry fee leagues). So while I don’t exactly know how to define “high stakes,” I can say with certainty that I am a high stakes player.

Read the rest of this entry »

I’ll come right out with it: I have a WHIP roto-score of a 1. Ok? There. I said it. This makes for tense viewing experiences when I get to sit down and actually watch one of my starting pitchers. Every infield single has me yelling, “That was recorded as a hit!?” But, if I weren’t actually watching the game, I would have only seen the hits and walks and innings pitched portion of a starting pitcher’s line and just assumed they gave up too many.  Luckily, watching Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal on Wednesday assured me that he’s still a guy to roster and that he had some bad luck. This is not to say that Skubal’s game line was bad, but I’m super sensitive about my WHIP and last week’s game in Kansas City reinforced in my mind how important checking a game log can be before making drop decisions. Let’s use Skubal’s most recent outing as an example and do some micro game logging and play logging to focus on the hits allowed.

Read the rest of this entry »

Baseball is happening! I decided for the entire season to run a weekly article on pitchers who have been “heating up.” I will dive into what it could mean for the pitcher and what you should do with them. This should be a captivating concept because it will be pitchers of all levels, anywhere from aces to pitchers you would have never drafted. That’s what it’s all about, catching players as they improve and acting on it before anyone else can realize. Welcome to “Throwing Heat!”

Read the rest of this entry »

Before the gates coming crashing down upon my head, let’s make things crystal from jump street. I’m not a mathematician and I’m certainly not a statistician. I don’t even pretend to be one in my Twitter bio. Me? I’m just a fantasy hack with a penchant for Ockham.

Do you know who doesn’t have said penchant? Major League Baseball and Commissioner Rob Manfred. If they did, they wouldn’t have detailed how enforcement will work in regards to pitchers using grip enhancers in a memo with a Florida-sized sea of gray areas. If they were being honest about their intentions and goals, the solution would be simple (and obvious). Read the rest of this entry »

Baseball collects a lot of data. It’s awesome. FanGraphs is a fun place for data. Exit velocity, spin rate, launch angle; these are fun data points. But, the vast majority of data that is floating around in lakes and clouds is generally not as exciting. Take some kind of machinery for example. Right now there are gears whirling, sensors sensing, detectors detecting, you get the point. This type of data is typically referenced in discussions about the internet of things (IoT). Baseball analytics has always benefited from what is learned in industry and in this post, I’ll be investigating whether a common industry technique, a Principal Component Analysis (PCA), can be useful in baseball analytics. 

Read the rest of this entry »

Last time out we took a look at which teams you should attack when going fishing for streams, targeting favorable splits, and identifying any offenses carrying under-the-radar weaknesses. But this time we travel to the mirror dimension, looking for the teams that should make your oh-no-no list when looking for streams.

Remember, just because a team is bad, in general, doesn’t mean they’re necessarily bad in every specificity. Bad teams can look good in some spots, and good teams can have exploitable weaknesses.

If you don’t believe me, just ask the Rays, who strike out against right-handers at comparable rates to the Tigers and Rangers. Or the Orioles, who are last in run value (per 100 pitches) versus RHP but are the best in baseball versus LHP. Read the rest of this entry »

Baseball is happening! I decided for the entire season to run a weekly article on pitchers who have been “heating up.” I will dive into what it could mean for the pitcher and what you should do with them. This should be a captivating concept because it will be pitchers of all levels, anywhere from aces to pitchers you would have never drafted. That’s what it’s all about, catching players as they improve and acting on it before anyone else can realize. Welcome to “Throwing Heat!”

Read the rest of this entry »