Archive for Roto

Using xwOBA in the Shallows

Not everyone is playing in a high-stakes NFBC league. Some of us are just trying to beat our family members, friends, or random strangers who have agreed to play fantasy baseball with us. In addition, not all of us are in deep leagues. Sometimes it’s hard getting even 10 people to pay enough attention to baseball for a full season to make your league competitive. If you just so happen to find yourself in one of these shallow leagues, like an ESPN or CBS league, where the stakes are low, the waiver wire is full of talent and everyone is bought in, consider yourself lucky. But, don’t consider yourself in an easy league.

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Throwing Heat Week 10

Baseball is happening! I decided for the entire season to run a weekly article on pitchers who have been “heating up.” I will dive into what it could mean for the pitcher and what you should do with them. This should be a captivating concept because it will be pitchers of all levels, anywhere from aces to pitchers you would have never drafted. That’s what it’s all about, catching players as they improve and acting on it before anyone else can realize. Welcome to “Throwing Heat!”

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Do Reliever Release Points Matter?

It’s well known amongst MLB The Show players that certain pitchers are difficult to hit due to their, dare I say, funky, delivery. It’s a testament to how realistic the video game is, or, so it would seem. I’ll never actually know. Regardless, The Show players often rely on relievers like Pat Neshek, Sergio Romo, or, more recently, Huston Street to throw off their online competitors. If you’ve gotten used to seeing the ball released from a certain point or angle for 7 innings, then a quick and drastic change from that look can be challenging. Outside of the fantasy world of video games are real-life relievers who can either throw very similar to the starter they are relieving or, drastically different. I wanted to know if there was a major difference in performance between the two.

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Crushing Heaters

Let’s talk about the hard stuff. Fastballs, that is. Because what was true 50 years ago, is still true today. But the splendid one put it best:

“You have to hit the fastball to play in the big leagues.”

– Ted Williams

If you want to have any chance against the whiffle ball cheese currently being thrown by the modern game’s spin-rate savants, you’ll first have to deal with the unprecedented amount of fire in the velocity game. Simply put, if you can’t smoke the heaters, good luck with all of the rest.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the batters having the most success against four-seamers and sinkers in 2021, and what it might mean for the rest of the season. Read the rest of this entry »


Analyzing Power Drainers

In one of the most iconic and artistic pieces of American cinematography of all time, power-hungry aliens travel to Earth from Planet Moron Mountain and drain NBA basketball all-stars of their talent. While I still hold out hope that there will be a baseball version of SpaceJam within my lifetime, I can only imagine who amongst MLB’s stars would be cast. One look at statcast leaderboards could help. Here are the 10 qualified hitters so far this year who have seen the largest drain in hard-hit rate:

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Throwing Heat Week 8

Baseball is happening! I decided for the entire season to run a weekly article on pitchers who have been “heating up.” I will dive into what it could mean for the pitcher and what you should do with them. This should be a captivating concept because it will be pitchers of all levels, anywhere from aces to pitchers you would have never drafted. That’s what it’s all about, catching players as they improve and acting on it before anyone else can realize. Welcome to “Throwing Heat!”

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Searching For The Best Reliever Release Point

Let’s imagine that Jacob deGrom is pitching for the New York Mets and has just faced the number nine batter his second full time through the order. Let’s also imagine, and this one is hard to do, that deGrom isn’t himself this fine day and shouldn’t go through the order a third time. Manager Luis Rojas pulls a hot dog style folded paper out of his back pocket and looks at multi-colored charts, doodles, heat maps, and whatever analytical imagery made its way into tonight’s report. Could the image below ever make its way onto that paper?

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Throwing Heat Week 7

Baseball is happening! I decided for the entire season to run a weekly article on pitchers who have been “heating up.” I will dive into what it could mean for the pitcher and what you should do with them. This should be a captivating concept because it will be pitchers of all levels, anywhere from aces to pitchers you would have never drafted. That’s what it’s all about, catching players as they improve and acting on it before anyone else can realize. Welcome to “Throwing Heat!”

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Time to Cut Bait?

We’re now halfway through May and there are plenty of high-investment hitters who continue to struggle. I’m generally shy about moving on from hitters early but you can also only be dragged down for so long before doing something. Whether that means benching, trading, or just cutting.

With that in mind, let’s look at five struggling hitters who were taken in the first 10 rounds and were expected to be stalwart starters in 2021 but have instead fallen flat.

*Any mentioned values are calculated using the FanGraphs auction calculator, using a 5×5, 12-team league (one catcher) setup. Read the rest of this entry »


Checking in on the Rabbits

If I were to look into the rear-view mirror while riding in the back seat of an Uber and ask the driver, “Could you tell me the expected time of arrival, minus the current time please?”, I would probably get some weird looks. But, if I were to ask you, fantasy baseball enthusiast, for your team’s current stolen base total, plus your rest of season (RoS) projected stolen base count, you would probably be delighted. It would give you a good sense of where your team is and where your team is heading.

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